Doc's Talk: "A Very Brief Lull"

Wednesday, December 24, 2008

"A Very Brief Lull"

Seems I may have underestimated Mubarak a bit yesterday when I said that Hamas was disenchanted with the Egyptians as negotiators and would likely not be moved by his attempts to cool matters.

Mubarak knew what to say: He told the Hamas leaders that Israel was planning on assassinating them. Worked like a charm. For a few hours, anyway. What he had asked for was 24 hours of quiet, what he got was 24 hours with just three rocket launchings -- a considerable reduction from the day before. And today Hamas people are saying they provided a few hours of complete quiet before those three were launched. As serious as the ramifications of this situation are, this is truly laughable. But there seems to have also been another reason why Hamas cooled it for a few hours: they wanted the Kerem Shalom crossing opened so some supplies would get through.

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Today six Kassams have been launched. But Arutz Sheva, with an admirable sense of the ridiculous, explains the difference between today's launchings and yesterday's: Yesterday's were "truce attacks," while today's are "non-ceasefire" attacks.

One Hamas spokesman acknowledged that the shooting was begun again after the aid came through the crossing; they had gotten what they were after.

This, in spite of a statement by Hamas leader Mahmoud Zahar to the Egyptian paper Al-Aharam that an assessment would be made after yesterday's quiet and that the "truce" would probably continue.

What is perhaps significant -- revelatory of Hamas thinking -- is that the level of rocket fire has not, at least not yet, escalated to what it had been a few days ago. It's as if they perceive (hopefully this time they're wrong!) that a "few" rockets will be tolerated by the Israeli public, while what they had been doing before stimulated sufficient protest so that an operation might have been imminent.

One Israeli official explained that, "Hamas does not want us to invade Gaza. They are hoping that because of the elections we will not invade and that they will be able to put pressure on us with the rocket attacks and... get better conditions in a new cease-fire."

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According to "senior defense officials" quoted by the Post, a reduction in attacks will not stop the operation. It is not anticipated that all rocket launchings will cease.

Hamas has been making threats about suicide attack renewals and other forms of violence if we don't get with their program. But this is my favorite Hamas quote, from spokesman Fawzi Barhoum:

"Israel wants to extort us so that we would agree to a cease-fire without gaining anything in return. Israel is offering us calm in return for calm, and this is unacceptable. They don't want to lift the siege and include the West Bank in the cease-fire agreement."

"Calm for calm" is unacceptable. Because they're not gaining anything in return? Isn't not having their leaders targeted for assassination "something"?

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Now factor this in, as well: In a reversal of what was understood to be his position just days ago, Mahmoud Abbas, PA president, sitting in a meeting with Mubarak today, declared that the PA "will not agree to Israel invading the Gaza Strip, or its planes bombarding it."

I wasn't aware we need him to "agree," although it does make matters a bit more complicated internationally if he is opposed.

Just days ago, Abbas was reportedly of a mind to see Hamas defeated because it would not negotiate with Fatah to establish unity. Now Abbas says that there is "no escape from renewing dialogue despite the fact that Hamas boycotts it. Our attempts have failed once, but still they should be continued until successful, because this is in the Palestinians' interest."

What pressures were brought to bear here? I would assume it was at least in part Mubarak's pressure, as Egypt still imagines it can broker a unity government. Did Abbas decide it looked really bad for him to even implicitly support an Israeli operation?

We must remember that he's going to be at odds with Hamas in a most significant way if he, as he says he will, remains in the presidency past January 9th.

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Livni will be in Cairo for meetings on Thursday.

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The Elder of Ziyon blog has run an amusing and very telling quiz, challenging people to match statements by our ostensible leaders with the date on which they made the statements. The point, quite simply, is that for two years they've been saying pretty much the same thing regarding Israeli refusal to tolerate rockets shot into Israel and the immediacy of a major response. Two years.

I thank Chana Givon for calling this to my attention. You can see the quiz at:

http://elderofziyon.blogspot.com/2008/12/kadimalabor-qassam-reaction-quiz.html

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After holding meetings yesterday with Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Turkish President Abdullah Gul, Olmert is waxing enthusiastic about the possibility of holding direct talks with Syria.

But Assad has said he doesn't want to negotiate now -- he's waiting for new administrations both in Israel and the US; then, ultimately, he would be in favor of talks. Obviously he sees Obama as more receptive than Bush has been. With regard to Israel, he prefers dealing with a stable new government, rather than one that is in its last days.

What I seriously wonder is if Olmert has provided Assad with an answer to his question as to whether Israel would permit Syria to go all the way down to the Kinneret if there were a deal and the Golan were returned to Syria.

One must conclude that this might be the case, because Assad said he wouldn't pursue negotiations unless Israel agreed on this point first.

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Netanyahu went to the Golan yesterday with some key figures from Likud, including Moshe Yaalon, Yossi Peled and Gideon Saar, in order to make a statement while Olmert was in Turkey. Said he:

"We are here to say clearly to the people of Israel and the entire world that the government of Israel under the Likud's leadership will remain in the Golan and safeguard it as a strategic asset for the country's future. It doesn't matter what Olmert says in Ankara. We say the government under my leadership will not withdraw from the Golan."

It's good for the world in general and Assad in particular to hear this. The same issue applies here as in what I've been discussing with the PA negotiations. The world tries to squeeze us into picking up in dealings where a previous government left off. But a verbal statement made by the former government is not legally binding on the next government.

What we will need, first of all, to see the new government under Likud leadership. It's early in the campaign, but Likud is slipping in the polls and Kadima is gaining.

Then we need to pray that Netanyahu will stand strong on this. There are critics pointing out that he's on the record previously as being willing to relinquish the Golan. Benny Begin says Netanyahu has changed... (Please, friends, in this instance, no messages telling me how I definitely can or cannot trust Bibi. I know full well there are people espousing both views. I know the arguments. And I know I trust Bibi more than I trust Tzipi.)

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Tomorrow is the final day for registration of parties for the election campaign. It would be difficult for me to fully describe how complicated the scenario is, with people switching parties, parties with new names establishing, and old parties coalescing and then coming apart.

I will do my best to provide updates on significant parts of the campaign.

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see my website www.ArlenefromIsrael.info.

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The IDF’s Minorities in Numbers and Pictures

In honor of IDF Diversity Week, we present diversity through numbers and pictures. Each year, more and more Muslims, Christians, Druze, Bedouin and immigrants from around the world take on the responsibility of defending Israel.

MUSLIMS:

Muslim Arab Israelis are not required to draft in the IDF, but there are many who volunteer. In 2013, there were over 200 Muslims serving in the IDF and over 300 in the reserves.

Bedouins:

Bedouins are nomadic Muslims who were in Israel when modern borders were set in place and are now considered Israeli citizens. They are not required to draft but a growing number choose to enlist. In 2012, there were over 1,400 Bedouin Muslim soldiers doing regular IDF service and almost 1,500 in the reserves.

Read more:http://www.idfblog.com/2014/02/27/truth-idf-numbers-pictures/#more-34027

Are you aware that in 2013, Middle class taxes go up-significantly?

In January of next year, the federal income tax rate for middle-class taxpayers is scheduled to rise from 25 percent to 28 percent, and the payroll tax is scheduled to rise from 13.3 percent to 15.3 percent… This drives the marginal tax rate based on the aforementioned three taxes to 48.12 percent. Add in state and local property, corporate, excise, and other state and local taxes, and the percentage of each additional dollar that is taxed hovers around 50 percent… When half of each additional dollar earned is taxed away, taxpayers experience a disincentive to start businesses or expand existing ones. This leads to fewer jobs being created.

Why is HAMAS Inside Tampa Schools?

Clare Lopez

Kelly Miliziano, who teaches history classes at Steinbrenner High School in the Tampa, Florida area apparently thinks it’s perfectly OK to invite a senior official of a HAMAS-affiliated organization into her classroom to discuss Islam with her students. According to local media reports, not only has this been going on for years, but in spite of the civil and criminal proceedings that could result from such reckless negligence, the Hillsborough County school superintendent, Mary Ellen Elia, and the chairman of the school board, Candy Olson, also expressed approval for students under their responsibility to be exposed repeatedly to guest speaker, Hassan Shibly, who is the Executive Director for the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) in the Tampa area.
More...

Did You Know... Ignoring the Call to Islam will Bring Jihad

‘Conquest through Da’wa [proselytizing] that is what we hope for. We will conquer Europe, we will conquer America! Not through sword but through Da’wa.’
-- Yousef al-Qaradawi , Muslim Brotherhood spiritual leader The Arabic word ‘Da’wa’ means the “call to Islam.” But do not think that Da’wa is the same thing as an invitation to an optional holiday event. The classical Islamic doctrine of jihad mandates that enemies must be given the opportunity to convert to Islam or pay the jizya tax before it is permissible to attack them.
Clare M. Lopez

Who is being discriminated-facts tell the truth

Religious bias

Hate crimes motivated by religious bias accounted for 1,409 offenses reported by law enforcement. A breakdown of the bias motivation of religious-bias offenses showed:

65.4 percent were anti-Jewish.
13.2 percent were anti-Islamic.
9.5 percent were anti-other religion, i.e., those not specified.
4.3 percent were anti-Catholic.
3.8 percent were anti-multiple religions, group.
3.3 percent were anti-Protestant.
0.5 percent were anti-Atheism/Agnosticism/etc.

http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/hate-crime/2010/narratives/hate-crime-2010-incidents-and-offenses.

On March 31, 1977, the Dutch newspaper Trouw published an interview

with PLO executive committee member Zahir Muhsein. Here's what he said:

"The Palestinian people does not exist. The creation of a Palestinian state is only a means for continuing our struggle against the state of Israel for our Arab unity. In reality today there is no difference between Jordanians, Palestinians, Syrians and Lebanese. Only for political and tactical reasons do we speak today about the existence of a Palestinian people, since Arab national interests demand that we posit the existence of a distinct "Palestinian people" to oppose Zionism.

For tactical reasons, Jordan, which is a sovereign state with defined borders, cannot raise claims to Haifa and Jaffa, while as a Palestinian, I can undoubtedly demand Haifa, Jaffa, Beer-Sheva and Jerusalem. However, the moment we reclaim our right to all of Palestine, we will not wait even a minute to unite Palestine and Jordan."

In March 1977, Zahir Muhsein, a PLO executive, said:

"The Palestinian people does not exist. The creation of a Palestinian state is only a means for continuing our struggle against the state of Israel for our Arab unity. In reality today there is no difference between Jordanians, Palestinians, Syrians and Lebanese. Only for political and tactical reasons do we speak today about the existence of a Palestinian people, since Arab national interests demand that we posit the existence of a distinct Palestinian people to oppose Zionism."

"For tactical reasons, Jordan, which is a sovereign state with defined borders, cannot raise claims to Haifa and Jaffa, while as a Palestinian, I can undoubtedly demand Haifa, Jaffa, Beer-Sheva and Jerusalem. However, the moment we reclaim our right to all of Palestine, we will not wait even a minute to unite Palestine and Jordan."

The Arab Apartheid

Ben-Dror Yemini
In 1948, the Arab countries refused to accept the UN partition proposal and they launched a war of annihilation against the State of Israel which had barely been established. All precedents in this matter showed that the party that starts the war - and with a declaration of annihilation, yet - pays a price for it. Between 550,000 and 710,000 Arabs fled because of the war and a larger number of 850,000 Jews were expelled or fled from Arab countries (the "Jewish nakba").
Population exchanges and expulsions were the norm at that time, occurring in dozens of other conflict points and affecting about 52 million people. In all the population exchange precedents that occurred during or at the end of an armed conflict, there was no return of refugees to the previous region, which had turned into a new national state.
Only the Arab states acted completely differently from the rest of the world. Instead of assimilating the refugees, they crushed them despite the fact that they were their coreligionists and members of the Arab nation - instituting a regime of apartheid. So the "nakba" was not caused by the actual dispossession, which had also been experienced by tens of millions of others. The "nakba" is the story of the apartheid, oppression, abuse and denial of rights suffered by the Arab refugees at the hands of the Arab countries. (Maariv)

International Law and Military Operations in Practice - Col. Richard Kemp

"Islamist fighting groups study the international laws of armed conflict carefully and they understand it well. They know that a British or Israeli commander and his men are bound by international law and the rules of engagement that flow from it. They then do their utmost to exploit what they view as one of their enemy's main weaknesses. Their very modus operandi is built on the correct assumption that Western armies will normally abide by the rules, while these insurgents employ a deliberate policy of operating consistently outside international law. "

Lost Historical Moments

What Rabin’s last Knesset speech really said:repudiation of a Palestinian state

Rabin ruled out a fully sovereign Palestinian state :

“We view the permanent solution in the framework of State of Israel which will include most of the area of the Land of Israel as it was under the rule of the British Mandate, and alongside it a Palestinian entity which will be a home to most of the Palestinian residents living in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank. We would like this to be an entity which is less than a state, and which will independently run the lives of the Palestinians under its authority.”

Rabin ruled out a total withdrawal from Judea and Samaria and thus a return to the pre-June 1967 borders :

“The borders of the State of Israel, during the permanent solution, will be beyond the lines which existed before the Six Day War. We will not return to the 4 June 1967 lines.”

Rabin ruled out withdrawing form the Jordan Valley:

“The security border of the State of Israel will be located in the Jordan Valley, in the broadest meaning of that term.”

Rabin ruled out uprooting settlement blocs, like the Gush Katif bloc in Gaza (which was subsequently uprooted by former Prime Minister Ariel Sharon):

“The establishment of blocs of settlements in Judea and Samaria, like the one in Gush Katif.

AND

Rabin ruled out removing any settlement before coming to a full peace agreement with the Palestinians:

“I want to remind you: we committed ourselves, that is, we came to an agreement, and committed ourselves before the Knesset, not to uproot a single settlement in the framework of the interim agreement, and not to hinder building for natural growth.”

Rabin insisted on Israel retaining full security control of the borders with Egypt and Jordan, contrary to Israel’s relinquishment of the Philadelphia Corridor on the border with Egypt:

“The responsibility for external security along the borders with Egypt and Jordan, as well as control over the airspace above all of the territories and Gaza Strip maritime zone, remains in our hands.”

Correcting Oslo Myths-Part 2

3) Kuttab laments that the post-1993 Oslo process resulted in a Palestinian Authority "whose ministers and legislators are not guaranteed passage between Gaza and the West Bank ...."

Before free passage or other perquisites, PA leaders were obligated, among other things, to eliminate the terrorist infrastructure in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, end anti-Israeli, antisemitic incitement in schools, mosques, and communications media, and resolve all outstanding issues through peaceful negotiations. They met none of these commitments, sometimes bolstering terrorism and greatly increasing incitement.

4) Kuttab complains that under Oslo the PA got "lightly armed police ---- but no real sovereignty over the land or contiguity between our communities in Gaza and the West Bank."

Oslo agreements repeatedly were revised, regardless of Palestinian non-compliance, until the authorized number of police grew from 8,000 to 40,000. Though they were to be the only armed forces in the territories, Israeli estimates early in the second intifada put the number of gunmen - police, "security services," terrorists, and armed gangs - at 85,000. Their armament reportedly included not only heavy machine guns and rocket-propelled grenades, but also anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles.

Sovereignty was to be negotiated in the envisioned 1998 "final status" talks - after a five-year period of confidence-building. Palestinian leadership chronically undermined the process. Palestinian terrorism made the 1993 - 1998 Oslo period more deadly for Israelis than the 15 years preceding it.

The United States doesn't have contiguity between the lower 48 states and Alaska and Hawaii; territorial contiguity between the West Bank and Gaza Strip - that is, through the 20 miles of Israeli territory between them - was never promised and would destroy Israeli contiguity.

5) "Palestinians have been made to endure hundreds of checkpoints in the West Bank, an eight-foot wall deep in our territories, and tight Israeli control over borders."

The security barrier is not "deep in Palestinian territories," but rather encompasses less than 8 percent of Judea and Samaria, and is mostly a fence, rarely a wall; the land in question is not "our [Palestinian] territories" but disputed territory to which, according to the authors of U.N. Security Council Resolution 242, Jews as well as Arabs have claims; and there are no international borders, only the 1949 armistice lines with Jordan. Under 242, borders remain to be negotiated. As for checkpoints - like the security barrier and "tight Israeli control" - Palestinian Arabs precipitated these measures themselves. No terrorism and there would be no fence or tight Israeli control and few checkpoints - like before the first intifada.

Correcting Some Oslo Myths

1) In Oslo "Israeli, Palestinian and other world leaders promised that ... Palestinian sovereignty would be solidified."

No, they didn't. The 1993 Declaration of Principles and subsequent Oslo agreements outlined a process by which final status negotiations about the West Bank and Gaza Strip would be reached. The process required an end to anti-Israel terrorism and incitement and a commitment to peaceful negotiations. The PA, Fatah, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, and other terrorist groups, sabotaged the process from the start.

2) "The reality is that, in defiance of U.N. Security Council Resolution 242, which states that it is inadmissible to occupy land by force, Palestinian territories are still under foreign military occupation."
Wrong again. Resolution 242 (1967) does note "the inadmissibility of the acquisition of territory by war." It also affirms the right of every state in the area "to live in peace with secure and recognized boundaries free from threats or acts of force." There were no "Palestinian territories." Jordan occupied the West Bank, Egypt controlled Gaza. Israel did not have "secure and recognized boundaries," so retention of some of those territories was possible under 242. Israel is not a "foreign" military occupier in the West Bank but, pending final negotiations, the lawful military administrator as a result of a successful war of self-defense.

Doc's Talk