I had hoped -- deeply hoped -- to
be able to turn my attention to matters other than the situation in the
Sinai. But the news there has loomed so large and seemed so
ominous, that it merits on-going attention. And so, once again, I begin
with this subject.
This time, however, I believe
I will be able to provide a bit more clarity about what's happening.
The news has been utterly
confounding and filled with contradictions: Tanks have been brought in by
the Egyptians to combat the jihadists with the permission of Israel; Israel did
not give permission. The Egyptian Defense Minister al-Sisi called Israeli
Defense Minister Barak and the two came to an understanding; there was no such
phone call.
And, most recently: An Egyptian
general came into the Sinai to negotiate with the jihadists and the efforts to
take out the terrorists is over; Egyptians say they are continuing
their efforts against the terrorists.
~~~~~~~~~~
The information I have now secured
is from a most reliable source -- an Arabic-speaking and very savvy Israeli
academic with multiple connections. He is in no way an apologist for
the Egyptians. This is what he explained:
The jihadist terrorists are hiding
in caves in the mountains (I have written about this) and thus tanks are
worthless against them. What is needed are infantry combat units and
helicopters to bring them up to the mountain tops.
~~~~~~~~~~
The tanks were brought in as a PR
ploy, to show the Egyptian people the army is tough and doesn't need
to abide by Israeli demands. The intent here, however, is not to
set up a situation that leads to war with Israel -- my source does not
anticipate that Egypt will go to war with Israel, either in the
short range, or even the "medium
range" future. Rather, says my source, the Egyptian government
is attempting to counter or deflate the demands of those who call
for breaking the peace treaty with
Israel.
One might argue that bringing in
the tanks has broken the treaty. And technically, this would be
the case if Israel had not approved the move. But the intent here apparently was
not to break it in all its parameters but, quite the contrary, to enable it to
be saved. The bravado
was for internal consumption.
At the end of the day, will the
tanks remain? This I cannot say. Might the situation shift so that
the tanks would be drawn upon in a limited military action? I have
no crystal ball and so can not definitively rule this out. But what I can
report is that a source I consider highly reliable has told me that it is not
the intention of the Egyptian government to break the peace treaty and move
towards war with
Israel.
~~~~~~~~~~
There is little that the Israelis
would be able to do overtly with regard to this situation except
to break the peace treaty themselves by going into the Sinai after them;
this is not in Israel's best interest now. (This would be to
invite war on Israel at a time that we must contend with Iran,
and when, apparently, Egypt is not gearing up for attack.) And so
Israel has, essentially, agreed to the current situation.
~~~~~~~~~~
There is still hope that the
Americans might apply pressure on Egypt by threatening to reduce financial
assistance. It has been my understanding that the US would be reluctant to
cut back on what is given to Egypt, and not only because of Obama's
sympathies: As is the case with Israel, most of the financial aid given to
Egypt by the US is for military equipment that must be purchased in the
US. In essence, the money does a U-turn and ends up again in US
coffers.
My source, however, said
otherwise: there is a percentage of the funds provided to Egypt that can
remain in the country and be utilized for such things as buying grain. For
Egypt, struggling with overwhelming poverty, this matters. And he has
picked up in the Egyptian press a good deal of unease because of comments in
this regard coming from Congress (which controls the purse
strings).
~~~~~~~~~~
In the meantime, the
negotiations being held are not with the terrorists, but with the Bedouin
who give them asylum: they live in the area around the caves,
and protect the jihadists.
One of the problems here is that
there are several tribes and each one must be negotiated with
separately. There have to be written agreements with each, with
generous "perks" provided in all instances.
The goal in dealing with the
Bedouin might be to get them to give up the jihadists -- allow the army to
reach them in the caves. Or, it might be to get the Bedouin to tell the
jihadists that they -- the Bedouin --will continue to provide them
with protection only if they remain quiet.
And here's the catch for Israel:
"quiet" would simply mean leaving the Egyptian army alone. If
that were achieved the Egyptians would consider they had achieved their
goal. Remember, they had started their operation against
the terrorists only when Egyptian soldiers were hit. Were the
terrorists to continue to cross the border into Israel, this would not
unduly concern the Egyptian army.
In any event, it is far less than
a sure thing that the negotiations with these Bedouin tribes will succeed. Says
my source, "Agreements with these tribes are written on ice in the
desert."
What is more, the jihadists
are more highly motivated than the Egyptian army.
~~~~~~~~~~
The harsh reality then is that we
will benefit only if the Egyptian army is successful in removing the jihadists
-- and this is a very "iffy" prospect. There is a greater likelihood, I suspect,
that whatever the Egyptian army manages to do in the Sinai, we will be
as vulnerable to terrorist attack as ever.
As our leaders often make a point
of saying, we must depend only upon ourselves. We must sustain
vigilance with regard to securing critical intelligence, continue to work on the
fence at the Sinai border, and otherwise guard that border with patrols,
etc.
But as to the Egyptian
army, the information I've secured makes the situation seem
considerably less ominous -- we are apparently not at substantial risk of an
attack across the border by the Egyptians.
~~~~~~~~~~
As if there is not enough on our
plates with the situation in neighboring states, we have to
contend as well with an outrageous situation within
Israel. (And yes, what I am about to describe here I consider to
be within Israel.)
The issue "du jour" is the
Jewish community of Migron. Referred to as an "unauthorized outpost,"
it is situated on high ground in Mateh Binyamin Regional Council, in the
Shomron (Samaria), 14 kilometers (some 8 miles) north of
Jerusalem. It is home
to 50 families.
Credit:
Indynews
~~~~~~~~~~
The story of Migron is painfully
familiar: It is all about what is Jewish land, and what Arab. And it involves an
Israeli legal system that favors Arab claims.
I have written about
this community before, and will be brief here. It was founded in 2001
on land that was understood to be Jewish land -- on a hill where it was
considered important to have a Jewish presence for security reasons because of a
new road built nearby.
In 2006, Peace Now (yup, them
again), acting ostensibly on behalf of local Arabs, brought a
petition to the High Court demanding that the community be dismantled because it
was on Arab-owned land. Proper documentation of that Arab ownership has
never been provided. The government, however, accepted the claim and the
Court ruled that Migron had to be dismantled.
Following a number of
delays, the Court set the 28th of August 2012 as the final time for
evacuation of the community.
~~~~~~~~~~
However, even though the residents
maintained throughout that they were on Jewish-owned land, an
anonymous American Jewish philanthropist provided funds to re-purchase
a portion of the land -- upon which 17 families live -- from the Arabs who
claimed it. It was a legal purchase and the assumption was made that these
families, at the very least, would be permitted to
stay.
The matter was submitted to the
Ministerial Committee on Settlements, which said it had no problem with allowing
the 17 families to remain.
The attorney-general, however,
said that this was a legally "problematic" situation. The fact that
our system permits an attorney-general the autonomy to go into court refusing to
defend the position of the government is something I neither understand
nor can explain. Quite candidly, it makes me crazy.
~~~~~~~~~~
At any rate, the High Court is
supposed to make a final ruling tomorrow and there is, as well, expectation that
all of Migron's residents, or all minus the 17 families, will be evacuated from
their homes by the IDF. A great deal about this is incomprehensible
to me. No one is certain what tomorrow will bring.
~~~~~~~~~~
Many people have expressed support
for Migron, for what may be happening there simply should not happen.
Yesterday, Jeff Daube, who heads the Israel ZOA office, opened
a satellite ZOA in Migron at the invitation of the residents, and held
a press conference.
~~~~~~~~~~
A further complication in this
crazy situation is that the caravans that the residents of Migron are supposed
to move into are not ready. The situation is unsafe for the many
children who would be living there, as there are construction materials all
over. The school building is not complete. And at least some of the
caravans still lack electricity.
~~~~~~~~~~
Many, including myself, were
deeply disturbed by a statement Minister of
Security Affairs Moshe Ya'alon was reported to have made at
yesterday's Cabinet meeting: Those who resist evacuation will not be
provided with places to live. Excuse me? And from Bogie?
The residents have said there would be no violence but they are talking
about passive resistance.
~~~~~~~~~~
I have already mentioned the Levy
Report, with regard to its conclusions and recommendations. It is in
a case such as this one in Migron that the Report has considerable
significance. In due course I will be returning to this.
~~~~~~~~~~
The Non-Affiliated Movement opened
its conference in Iran yesterday, with the Iranian government playing the event
to the hilt for PR purposes.
Much was made of the fact that
delegates of 100 nations are participating: the Iranians delighted in noting
that two kings, seven prime ministers, 27 presidents and one UN head were
in attendance. These two kinds, seven prime ministers, 27 presidents
and one UN head obviously have no compunctions about lending legitimacy to
a genocide-threatening, renegade nation that should be
ostracized.
What we learn, again and again, is
that the world does not give a damn.
~~~~~~~~~~
After a heated battle about
whether Hamas or the PA should represent the Palestinian Arabs at this
conference, it turns out that neither Abbas nor Haniyeh went.
Abbas met in Ramallah yesterday
with MK Zehava Gal-On of the far left party Meretz. Regrettable
that she chose to undermine the government position -- when Abbas refuses to
meet with Netanyahu.
~~~~~~~~~~
On the agenda of their discussion
was a recent letter sent to the Quartet by Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman,
who said that there would be no progress in the peace process as long as
Abbas was PA president. He called for Abbas to be replaced in
elections.
Lieberman was correct and also
very mistaken. There will be no progress in negotiations as long as Abbas
heads the PA. But Lieberman is dreaming if he imagines that Abbas
would be replaced by someone more genuinely moderate. It is the system and the
entire cadre of PA leaders that is adamant in not
negotiating genuinely with Israel. If anything, with the influence of
Hamas increasing, those representing the PA have become only more
radical and intransigent.
All Lieberman achieved then was to
provide Abbas with an opportunity to voice righteous
indignation.
~~~~~~~~~~
School started here in Israel
today. It proceeded without incident. But yesterday three rockets
were launched into the Sderot area. A little known jihadist
Salafi organization claimed credit.
~~~~~~~~~~
©
Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by Arlene Kushner,
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