The
Arab-Israeli conflict has been largely replaced by the Sunni
Muslim-Shia Muslim conflict as the Middle East’s featured battle. While
the Arab-Israeli conflict will remain largely, though not always, one of
words, the Sunni-Shia battle involves multiple fronts and serious
bloodshed.
Shia
Muslims are a majority in Iran and Bahrain; the largest single group in
Lebanon; and significant minorities in Saudi Arabia and Iraq. While the
ruling Alawite minority in Syria is not Shia—as almost all Sunni
Muslims (but not Westerners) know, it has identified with that bloc.
The
main conflict in this confrontation is in Syria,
where a Sunni rebellion is likely to triumph and produce a strongly
anti-Shia regime. A great deal of blood has been shed in Iraq, though
there the Shia majority has triumphed.
The
tension is already spreading to Lebanon, ruled largely by Shia
Hizballah. In Bahrain, where a small Sunni minority rules a restive Shia
majority, the government has just outlawed Hizballah as a terrorist,
subversive group, even while European states have refused to do so.
By
Islamizing politics to
a greater degree, the victories of the (Sunni) Muslim Brotherhood group
have deepened the Sunni-Shia battle. And, of course, on the other side,
Iran, as leader of the Shia bloc, has been doing so, too, though its
ambition was to be the leader of all Middle East Muslims.
Yet
also, especially when it comes to Iran, the Sunni Muslim bloc is also
very much an Arab one as well. Many Sunnis, especially the more
militantly Islamist ones, look at Shias—and especially at Iranian
Persians—as inferior people as well as heretical in terms of Islam. I
don’t want to overstate that point but it is a very real factor.
This
picture is clarified by a recent report by the Cordoba Foundation, a
research center based in the UK and close to the Muslim Brotherhood. The
name, after the Spanish city where Islamic religion and culture
flourished before the Christian reconquest in the fifteenth century, may
seem chosen to denote multiculturalism and peaceful coexistence. But,
of course, it was picked to suggest the Islamic empire at its peak and
the continued claim to every country it once ruled, including Spain.
The report is entitled Arab and Muslim National Security: Debating the Iranian Dimension and
summarizes discussions among “a group of prominent and influential
Islamic figures,” though no names of participants are included. The
focus was to define and warn about the Shia and Iranian threat to the
Sunnis and Arabs.
In
the report, Iran is identified as the aggressor against the Sunni
Muslim (Arab) world, pushing “its political influence through religious
sectarianism.” Implicitly the discussion rejects the idea that either
“the Palestinian issue” or unity as Muslims overrides the Iranian
national security threat.
One
concern is that of demography. ”Such demographic pockets [that is,
non-Sunni Muslims and non-Arabs--BR] in some Arab countries pose a
threat to society regardless of how small they are.”
Remarkably,
the paper states that Iraq’s population changes “have distanced it from
the Arab order.” In other words, because there are more Shia Muslims
and non-Arab Kurds in Iraq, it is out of phase with other Arab states
and might look toward either Tehran or Washington.
Another
demographic concern is Iran’s alleged effort to convert non-Muslim
Alevis in Turkey (they
say they are Muslim but they aren’t really); Syrian Alawites (same
story), and Yemeni Shia Muslims (of a different sect) to Iran-style Shia
Islam (Twelver Shiism).
Iran
has also succeeded, the paper continues, “in securing strategic
victories, such as its gains in Iraq and Afghanistan, Bahrain, Yemen,
and the eastern parts of Saudi Arabia. Actually, though these are pretty
limited gains in each case.
Syria,
where the pro-Iran regime is likely to be replaced by a Sunni, Muslim
Brotherhood one, is a setback for Iran. And by overthrowing Syria’s
regime, the sponsor of Hizballah, that will cut Iran’s sponsorship of
Lebanese Shia (Hizballah), “almost thirty years of hard work totally
wasted.” That’s overstated but contains some basic truth.
The
paper also states, accurately, “Although Islamic movements in the Arab
world may seem on the surface to be homogenous and inspired by the same
intellectual sources, there is lack of
coordination and total chaos.” As an example it cites the Sunni
Islamist movement in Iraq which faces: “Serious challenges from
expanding Turkish economic interests, Iranian cultural and sectarian
influence, and Kurdish expansionism.” It then asks whether the Iranian
and local Shia or the Iraqi Kurds are the bigger threat.
Usually,
the paper explains, the main threats are identified as the United
States and Israel. Israel “still lives in the Arab consciousness as the
biggest threat to Arab Islamic culture.”
Two
points here. On the one hand, a group of leading Sunni Islamists is
saying that Israel is not the biggest security threat to Arabs and
Muslims today! On the other hand, Israel is identified as a cultural
threat. Why? Because it is a socio-economic success story and thus
subverts the narrative of Arab ethnic, cultural, and religious
superiority or because it is a symbol of modernism?
But here’s the key
conclusion:
“Prior
to the Syrian revolution, there was no consensus on what constitutes
the greatest threat to our national security, but it has since become
evident that the Iranian threat is much bigger than American and Israeli
threats.”
This
is an intellectual-political
earthquake in Middle East history. It in no way implies a friendly
attitude toward America or Israel--which are still seen as threats--but
it is an important factor to consider in Western policymaking.
One
reason why Iran is such a huge threat, the paper continues, is that all
Arabs and Muslims know about the United States. But Iran operates from
the “inside” and in a “hidden” manner because it seems to be Muslim,
Third World, anti-American, and anti-Israel. So it can fool Sunni Arab
Muslims, stab them from the book, alter their culture, and take over
institutions.
Thus,
in Iraq, “Iran invested a lot of money and effort destroying Iraq from
within through bribery and purchasing loyalties.” Of course, the real
problem for the Sunni Arab Islamist movement in Iraq is that the
majority of people are either Shia Muslims or Kurds who, while Sunni
Muslim, have their own nationalist identity.
The
paper is equally tough on Turkey, despite that country’s regime wanting
to lead the Arab Sunnis. But while it is an economic threat, it doesn’t
have much political or strategic leverage
and is at least not trying to alter Sunni religion and culture.
While
giving passing mention to the concept that Iran is merely aggressive
because it has been fooled by American imperialism, the Sunni Arab
Islamists claim that Iran often acts in conjunction with U.S. policy.
Although you may find this idea to be strange, remember that Tehran did
go along with U.S. operations against Afghanistan and Iraq, attacks
which removed two of Iran’s Sunni enemies.
They
conclude, “We no longer have any choice but to defend ourselves against
Iran,” which holds “a sectarian, ethnic, Persian agenda.”
While
the paper claims that “The United States…actually handed over Iraq to
Iran and allowed it to expand into Syria,” the fact is that the West has
in effect backed Sunni Islamist control over Egypt, Tunisia, and Syria.
This shows, however, that the Sunni Islamists will never credit—they
cannot do so ideologically—any U.S. help they
receive, much less reciprocate.
What
this means is that a Sunni Islamist bloc now confronts a Shia Islamist
bloc. Both claim, with some evidence, the United States of supporting
their enemy. The question for Western policymakers should be not to take
sides—“good” Islamists against “bad” Islamists—but how to use and
enhance this conflict. The worst temptation is to believe that putting
one side into power--in other words, Sunni Islamists because they may
hate Iran--will counter the other.
Today,
aside from the undoubtedly important nuclear weapons' issue, the main
strategic threat in the Middle East is Sunni Islamism. Why? Simple. Iran
cannot expand its influence successfully into Sunni Muslim majority
areas yet the Arab world is overwhelmingly Sunni. Iran cannot win. Only
Sunni Islamism can generate new dictatorships, repression, and
conventional wars.
If you are interested in reading more about the Arab-Israeli conflict,
current regional situation you're welcome to read my book Tragedy of the Middle East online or download it for free.
This article is published on PJMedia.
This article is published on PJMedia.
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--------------------
Barry
Rubin is director of the Global Research in International Affairs
(GLORIA) Center and editor of the Middle East Review of International
Affairs (MERIA) Journal. His next book, Nazis, Islamists and the Making
of the Modern Middle East, written with Wolfgang G. Schwanitz, will be
published by Yale University Press in January 2014. His latest book is Israel: An Introduction, also published by Yale. Thirteen of his books can be read and downloaded for free at the website of the GLORIA Center including The Arab States and the Palestine Conflict, The Long War for Freedom: The Arab Struggle for Democracy in the Middle East and The Truth About Syria. His blog is Rubin Reports. His original articles are published at PJMedia.
Professor Barry Rubin, Director, Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center http://www.gloria-center.org
The Rubin Report blog http://rubinreports.blogspot.com/
He is a featured columnist at PJM http://pajamasmedia.com/barryrubin/.
Editor, Middle East Review of International Affairs (MERIA) Journal http://www.gloria-center.org
Editor Turkish Studies,http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/title~db=all~content=t713636933%22
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