Barry Rubin
On December 15, an Israeli jeep
was driving along the Israel-Lebanese border near the coast, in a quiet
area, which hadn't seen war for decades. Suddenly a shot
rang out. A warrant officer fell dead, but he wasn't killed by a
"terrorist."
Apparently he had been shot by a uniformed soldier of the
Lebanese army. Let's consider this situation under the America's
supposed security protection of Israel.
Is Lebanon going to court
martial this soldier? Is the United States going to demand that he be
punished? Will the United States do anything? Remember that the U.S.
will be subsidizing Iran, and who knows what else. Moreover, the United
States will try to restrain any Israeli actions. This person is going to
get away with murder, and no one will criticize him, but rather
compliment him.
This is going to pose daily questions of U.S. policy
(true I know this is a Lebanese not Palestinian soldier, but the
principal is the same). What if the soldiers had been a few dozen miles
away?
The United States is obviously going to regret this action but is
not going to do anything. It will try to restrain Israel. And
meanwhile Lebanon, Syria, and other countries are going to act like
they are at war with Israel, but the United States will not allow Israel
to act like it is at war with them.
How about if Hizballah had shot
the soldier. This means that an Israeli soldier was shot by what is a de
facto ally of the United States. After all, the United States has
likely provided Iran with some 20 billion dollars, cut sanctions, and
won't do anything about the situation. What do Israelis gain? A
"frequent friar [Hebrew for sucker] card"?
Does the United States
want to get into this situation, the middle of an Arab-Israeli conflict
that has gone on for 66 years? As I have pointed out many times, this
will be a disaster.
The current stage of peace negotiations are the
following: The U.S. has offered American troops to be in the West Bank
and Gaza Strip for 10 years. How many soldiers will there be? What is
their designated mission? Do you really think the U.S. will
have thousands of soldiers in Israel and Palestine for a decade? I
don't believe this will happen. I repeat, either this will be a disaster
or will not happen.
Here is an interesting option. Suppose the Obama
administration draws negotiations out to the end of 2014? Certainly
parties would like to do that; they are in no hurry. Then negotiations
are drawn out during the campaign, and then the day after voting, they
collapse. Wouldn't the Democratic Party achieve a great voter turnout,
considering the Arab-Israeli conflict and the Iran conflicts are solved?
And then Obama would announce that U.S. interests cannot make the
concessions to create peace. In other words, he would get the value of
the campaign slogans but then does not deliver.
In other words, if you want this conflict, you can keep this conflict. Don't be surprised at this prediction becoming true.
1 comment:
You can thank the land for peace program for the death of this solider...
The Lebanese Army should now pay the price...
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