Multiple
outlets and analysts are assessing that the West's reduction of
sanctions on Iran, implemented on Monday per the Joint Plan of Action
(JPA) agreed to by the P5+1 global powers and Tehran, has triggered a
"gold rush" into the Islamic republic as companies and nations scramble
not to be left behind as the country's markets are reopened to the
world. The phrase is an explicit echo of statements made by Vienna-based Iranian business consultant Bijan Khajehpour and
conveyed by Reuters, in
which Khajehpour described a "gold rush" mood in Tehran that has Russia
and China rushing to lock in oil-based barter deals before Western
companies penetrate the Iranian energy sector. The
Wall Street Journal contrasted assurances from
the Obama administration emphasizing that sanctions relief was limited
with evidence that a "growing number of European governments and
businesses [are] moving to cash in on the opening created by the interim
agreement." Specifically, the
Journal piled on examples
indicating that "Tehran's trading partners have lifted sanctions, sent
delegations, agreed to export deals and signaled their readiness to
expand ties across nearly every major industry." Mark Dubowitz and
Emanuele Ottolenghi - respectively the executive director of the
Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) and a senior fellow at the
foundation -
noted in Politico today
that the "gold rush" is partly a function of a psychological change
that has seen "greed... overcome fear," with the improved economic
climate already generating "some illegitimate deals as companies test
the waters." Reuters
reported today that Iranian oil sales rose in January for the third consecutive month, and tomorrow Iranian President Hassan Rouhani is
to address global
business leaders and urge them to pursue further energy co-development
deals. The Korea Trade-Investment Promotion Agency meanwhile
announced yesterday that
it will resume trade with Iran, cracking open a market that had in the
past seen robust trade in auto exports and energy. The degree to which
Iran benefited economically from the JPA has both diplomatic and policy
stakes. Diplomatically, the loss of U.S. leverage will make it difficult
to pressure Iran into verifiably putting its nuclear program beyond use
for nuclearization. Politically, evidence of such a loss is likely to
deepen calls for Congress to pass legislation imposing new sanctions on
Iran should negotiations over Tehran's nuclear program fail, a move that
proponents insist would boost the bargaining position of U.S.
negotiators.
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