The Iranian navy is doing this one the hard way. The two ships in the “29th Flotilla” task group heading for the Atlantic Ocean will make their transit by the Cape of Good Hope, rather than going through the Mediterranean Sea.
According to Iranian authorities, the ships will
stop in South Africa for a port visit on the way to the
Atlantic.
They’re “doing it the hard way” because the Iranians
don’t have a capability to do underway refueling. On the African route, the frigate Sabalan will be constrained by her fuel
limitations on longer, less efficient port hops than she would be on the
Mediterranean route. By going
through the Med, the ships could hew more closely to a “great circle” route,
which is always the most time-distance efficient way to move in maritime space
around our globe. The Iranians’
in-port fueling options would be obvious going through the Med as
well.
That
said, the all-important criterion for the Iranians is probably minimizing the
risk of the jump across the Atlantic.
From the Strait of Gibraltar, it’s a long haul to either Venezuela or
Cuba – a long haul out of reach of land.
Although either distance is nominally within Sabalan’s unrefueled range of 4,500
nautical miles (5,000 statute mi/9,000 km), both destinations lie between
3,600-4,000 nautical miles from Gibraltar.
Making the trip at 15 knots (nautical miles per hour), a typical transit
speed, would run Sabalan’s fuel down
far below a prudent level during the journey. Even slowing the transit to an
excruciatingly slow pace of 12 knots would still put Sabalan below 40% fuel by
the time she got to Venezuela or Cuba.
No mariner wants to be in that position if he can help it. There is no margin for error – to
include bad weather – in such a plan.
Doubling the Cape of Good Hope, by contrast, will
position the Iranian task group to move up the West coast of Africa, stopping to
refuel at least once after departing South Africa, and then make the jump from
northwestern Africa: presumably either Senegal or Mauritania, with both of which
nations Iran has been assiduously cultivating ties in recent
years.
This
route, although it entails very long legs around Africa, will mean an Atlantic
jump of only 2,500-2,700 nautical miles, assuming the ships’ first stop in the
Americas is Venezuela. It minimizes
the length of the riskiest part of the journey.
Iran hasn’t named a date when the
ships will arrive in South Africa.
They are likely to stop first at Durban, on the southeast coast. I doubt Sabalan is going all the way from Bandar
Abbas to Durban without fueling, however; ... [See rest at
links]
J.E.
Dyer
CDR, USN (Ret.)
Hemet, CA
CDR, USN (Ret.)
Hemet, CA
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