Iran Sanctions Showdown
After Tehran agreed to implement
November's interim nuclear deal, President Hasan Rouhani
on Tuesday turned to Twitter: TWTR in Your
Value
Your Change
Short position "Our
relationship w/ the world is based on Iranian nation's interests. In
#Geneva agreement world powers surrendered to Iranian nation's will."
Back
in Washington, President Obama
hailed "this important step forward" and had
some tough words of his own—for the U.S. Congress. He repeated his
threat to veto a new Iran sanctions bill at last count co-sponsored by
59 Senators, all but accusing
them of pushing America into another Middle Eastern war. We hope Senate
Democrats keep Mr. Rouhani's tweet in mind and don't blink.
***
The
interim agreement keeps open Iran's path to a bomb. In exchange for
immediate sanctions relief, Tehran promises to dilute its stockpile of
higher levels of enriched uranium, stop installing new centrifuges, and
halt most work on a heavy-water reactor that could lead to a plutonium
bomb.
As for the fine print of this First Step Agreement,
you'll have to
take the Administration's word for it. Officials say the International
Atomic Energy Agency, which will monitor its implementation, usually
keeps this confidential. But on Monday Iran's chief negotiator talked
about the existence of a secret informal 30-page addendum that, among
other matters, covers Iran's right to nuclear enrichment.
The
Case-Zablocki Act of 1972 compels Mr. Obama to release any international
agreements within 60 days. He can invoke a national-security exemption
and show only certain Members of Congress, which is what he seems to be
doing. But the secrecy won't build confidence in the deal.
In
background briefings, even Administration officials acknowledge the
deal's limitations. Iran can't install new centrifuges, but it can
continue R&D work on centrifuges. No country needs advanced
centrifuges except to build a bomb. Some unspecified work will also
continue on the Arak heavy-water plant, which ought to be dismantled.
And Iran can still enrich uranium to lower levels in breach of U.N.
resolutions.
The
IAEA will be allowed to inspect the Natanz and Fordow enrichment plants
daily and Arak once a month. But the agreement doesn't provide for
inspections of the Parchin military complex that may be perfecting
triggers and delivery vehicles for a bomb. Reuters reported Monday that
the interim accord "falls short of what [the IAEA] says it needs to
investigate suspicions that Tehran may have worked on designing an
atomic bomb," and "is also a far cry from the wide-ranging inspection
powers
[it] had in
Iraq in the 1990s."
And
Iran's chief
nuclear negotiator Abbas Araghchi
said this week that, "We can return again
to 20% enrichment in less than one day and we can convert the [nuclear]
material again. . . . I can say definitively that the structure of our
nuclear program will be exactly preserved. Nothing will be put aside,
dismantled or halted. Everything will continue, enrichment will
continue."
Meanwhile,
the sanctions regime has already started to crack. The Administration
says Iran will get $7 billion in gradual relief over six months,
including $4.2 billion in Iranian funds frozen overseas and the rest by
easing sanctions on Iran's gold and precious metals trade, petrochemical
exports and manufacturing goods. Others put the economic relief much
higher. A French commercial delegation will visit
Iran next
month, looking for business opportunities to exploit as the sanctions
break
down.
***
All of which
underscores the case for the Senate to vote on the "Nuclear Weapon Free
Iran Act of 2013." The bipartisan bill tees up stronger sanctions on
Iran's oil and financial industries, but only if Tehran walks away from
negotiations. The Administration should welcome this as leverage.
More important, the bill lists the terms
that a final deal must include. This includes compliance with existing
U.N. resolutions that require on-demand inspections and that bar
enrichment and the missiles to deliver a nuclear weapon.
Opponents
say this is a poison pill, but that's true only if the Administration
is willing to accept an inadequate deal. One reason so many Democrats
are supporting the bill despite White House opposition is that they want
to
stiffen Mr.
Obama's spine. They're privately afraid that he'll accept a deal that
lets Iran
remain on the cusp of a nuclear breakout even if it doesn't test a
weapon. The sanctions will collapse with Iran being a de facto nuclear
power, the way Japan is today.
That suspicion is only reinforced by the rhetoric the White House is
using to push Democrats off the sanctions bill.
Bernadette Meehan, a
spokeswoman for the National Security Council, put out a statement last
week that the bill's supporters "want the United States to take military
action." And this week California Democrat
Dianne Feinstein took to the Senate floor and also claimed that the bill "is a
march toward
war."
So
Americans are supposed to believe
that the only choice is between
war and whatever Mr. Obama negotiates. But the far more likely path to
war is a bad deal that induces Israel to strike and drives the Saudis
and Turks to get their own bomb. Mr. Obama's opposition to the Senate
sanctions bill shows how much it is needed.
Guest Comment:
"The interim agreement keeps open Iran's path to a bomb".
The agreement of the P5+1 with Iran allows Iran to have and
continue having advanced "centrifuge research", something no country
needs unless it is seeking a nuclear weapon. There will be no
inspections of Iran's Parchin military complex that may be perfecting
triggers and delivery vehicles for a nuclear bomb. The agreement is a
surrender to Iran and its dangerous path.
Nurit G.
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