Well, it's New Year's
Day. Knowing both how busy I am (it's a "regular" day here), and how
likely it is that many will be away from the computer for New Year's Day, I was
not going to write. But my prime minister's recent
statement motivated (compelled?) me to do so.
First, let me wish
everyone a happy secular new year. It is never the wrong time for wishes
for blessing and good things.
~~~~~~~~~~
And to the
subject at hand:
There has been
a good deal of political discussion here of late regarding a Palestinian state
-- whether there is a commitment to one, whether it would good, whether we
should support one, etc.
Minister of
Education Gideon Sa'ar (Likud) said recently that a Palestinian state
has never been part of the Likud platform. Sa'ar is a big vote-getter and
a good guy in Likud.
Credit: IsraelHayom
~~~~~~~~~~
Then the
political newcomer who is fourth on the Likud list and sure to be in the next
government, Yair Shamir -- son of former prime minster Yitzhak
Shamir, wrote an op-ed about "Why I oppose a Palestinian
state":
"...we
must remove the idea of a Palestinian state in our area from the Israeli agenda
immediately, if not sooner."
Credit: catalyst-fund
I regret that
he spoke only in security terms, about what damage such a state would bring in
its wake, and not about our rights to Judea and Samaria, but
OK. He is opposed.
And it was
important that Shamir referred back to Yitzhak Rabin, who signed on to the Oslo
Accords. Many people imagine -- this myth has been refined over time
-- that Rabin was solidly for a Palestinian state. But he was not. Shortly
before his death, Rabin spoke of what he envisioned with Oslo, which was an
autonomy short of a full state. In his article, Shamir presented evidence
of Rabin's opinion on the matter.
~~~~~~~~~~
MK Tzipi
Hotovely (Likud) ventured the opinion at Hebrew University yesterday that
when Prime Minister Netanyahu spoke about a Palestinian state in his 2009 Bar
Ilan talk, it was “a tactical speech for the world...Netanyahu made the
speech in response to accusations from the Arab world and to expose Mahmoud
Abbas, who refuses to recognize the Jewish state.”
Going
good. Her implication is that he wasn't really devoted to that
concept.
~~~~~~~~~~
Of course, we
also saw that President Shimon Peres made a statement about "peace" being a
top priority, and referred to Abbas as a "partner for peace."
But this is
Peres, who, at 89, is not about to change. He's one of those "head in an
alternate reality" people and I sense that he really believes what he is
saying.
Anyway, there
were a number of responses to him.
Because I
always enjoy a laugh, I rather liked the irritated reaction of PA negotiator
Saeb Erekat, who observed that, “He’s meddling in Palestinian politics and
deciding who can and who can’t be a party to talks.” Peres should take a
hint from this, but he won't.
~~~~~~~~~~
The most solid response to the president came from Habayit
Hayehudi head Naftali Bennett, who declared, "enough
already" with "peace process" talk. The Oslo Accords, he
reminded Peres, “brought us more than 1,600 murdered Israelis
[via terrorist attacks].”
“Enough, already. The President of the
country is supposed to represent all of the country, not just a part of
it.
“Mr. President,
it is clear that your intentions were good, but that does not make any
difference. The time has come for some soul searching. Perhaps giving land to our enemies does not
work?"
~~~~~~~~~~
All of this said
and done, a spokesman for the Likud-Beitenu joint list declared, in
response to what has been going on, that Prime Minister Netanyahu
stands by his support for a Palestinian state under the conditions described in
his 2009 Bar Ilan talk.
Of course, then
there were all the qualifiers: a Palestinian state will be possible when the
Palestinians recognize Israel as the state of the Jewish people, will agree to
the end of conflict, and will make appropriate arrangements regarding Israel's
security requirements (which includes demilitarization).
But it is with
regard to this that I ask if the prime minister really really needed to do
it.
~~~~~~~~~~
Qualifiers aside,
I see it as a huge mistake.
There are those now claiming that Hotovely was wrong
-- that he is really supportive in principle of the idea of a Palestinian
state and that his Bar Ilan speech was not simply tactical.
I am not sure that is correct. Much that Netanyahu
does is "tactical." He "plays" various situations for various
purposes. And I suspect the statement about his standing by his support is
also tactical. He has taken a tougher stance of late, saying that we will
build in Jerusalem no matter what the world says, and so on and so on.
But he's not ready to take that additional step. He
has, I would guess, sufficiently incurred the wrath of the world with the
announcements about planning to build in E1 or establishing new neighborhoods in
Jerusalem past the Green Line, so that he does not wish to push it
further.
~~~~~~~~~~
Netanyahu knows full well that there is not a snowball's
chance in hell that Abbas will come to the table and seriously negotiate
that two state solution. Thus, there is absolutely no risk to him on that
score. It's a throw-away offer, meant, I believe, to show the world,
still, that the PLO is at fault and he is willing.
If hell froze over and Abbas did come to the table, would
Netanyahu negotiate a Palestinian state? I cannot see into his
heart. But I believe if everything were equal he would rather do without
it. He's not Livni, nor Olmert -- he's not pining to rectify the terrible
"wrong" we have done in "occupying" "Palestinian land."
~~~~~~~~~~
But even if this is just tactical. It's a terrible tactic.
To me it smacks of groveling: See, see, how I am willing?
He might have said something like:
"I meant it when, over three years ago, I offered a
Palestinian state, with appropriate conditions. And I was the one --
the only Israeli prime minister ever -- who froze building in communities in
Judea and Samaria for 10 months, because this is what Mr. Abbas wanted.
"And what have we gotten for it? The PA still
teaches its children that jihad is good and that Israel belongs to them.
It still venerates terrorists. Venerates terrorists? It's talking about a
unity government with the terrorist Hamas. In fact, Hamas is gaining
strength in Judea and Samaria and intends to topple the PA there, as it did in
Gaza. While, at the same time, the PA security forces have reduced security
cooperation with Israel. And as if this were not enough, Mr. Abbas
acted unilaterally in a fashion prohibited by the Oslo Accords when he went to
the UN.
"The PA, which is awash in corruption and as a result is
falling apart fiscally, has done everything but build a state-in-the-making in
positive ways and genuinely prepare its people for peace.
"I do not wish to kid myself or to delude my people.
There is no reason to entertain thoughts of a Palestinian state."
~~~~~~~~~~
In truth, he comes so very close to this. Today,
Netanyahu said:
"Everyone knows that Hamas could take over the Palestinian
Authority. It could happen after an agreement, it could happen
before an agreement, like it happened in Gaza. Therefore, as opposed to the
voices that I have heard recently urging me to run forward, make concessions,
[and] withdraw, I think that the diplomatic process must be managed responsibly
and sagaciously and not in undue haste."
So, he demonstrates clearly what is not viable -- but
insists on referring to a "diplomatic process" as if there were one. There isn't.
~~~~~~~~~~
I mentioned above prominent members of Likud, such as
Shamir and Sa'ar, who are against a Palestinian state. And there are
others. MK Ze'ev Elkin, Coalition Chair, for example, and Minister of
Public Diplomacy Yuli Edelstein. More good guys.
Quite simply, a good number of the people in the Likud
faction are unhappy with their leader right now. Tonight I spoke with
someone who works within the party (not in an elected position) and he indicated
precisely this to me.
And so this situation must play itself out. Because what
we're seeing is that the party of Naftali Bennett is gaining in the polls at the
expense of Likud.
The Israeli electorate is moving right:
A poll just released by Israeli Channel Two Television
indicates that 70% of Israelis (and this includes Arabs) do not think it's
possible "to reach a solution to the dispute with the Palestinians in the
near future."
While a poll announced by Israel Hayom yesterday indicates
that "about 83 percent of Israelis believe pulling back to the pre-1967
armistice lines will not bring an end to the conflict nor a peace accord with
the Palestinians."
~~~~~~~~~~
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Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by Arlene Kushner,
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