Doc's Talk: Hamas Military Capabilities after the Gaza Takeover

Tuesday, August 28, 2007

Hamas Military Capabilities after the Gaza Takeover

Hamas's June 2007 victory over Fatah was more than a political achievement -- it was a military bonanza. From its capture of Fatah's security headquarters, Hamas acquired stockpiles of American-made small arms and ammunition as well as a wide range of military equipment and vehicles originally transferred to bolster Fatah forces loyal to President Mahmoud Abbas. In addition, increased smuggling activity since June has reportedly provided Hamas with Russian-made weapons, including antitank and antiaircraft missiles. Israel's Shin Bet estimates that forty tons of explosives entered Gaza in the two months following Hamas's takeover, along with 150 rocket-propelled grenade (RPG) launchers in August alone. In all, according to Israeli public security minister Avi Dichter, it would have taken Hamas approximately one year to obtain the amount of weaponry seized during the Gaza takeover through smuggling or other means.

Hamas's upgraded military capabilities affect the durability of its control over Gaza, as well as Fatah's prospects for challenging that control, Israel's policy toward the territory, and future U.S. security assistance to the Palestinian Authority (PA). A survey of its arsenal supports the Israeli assessment that Hamas has undergone a "generational change" over the past two years.

Small Arms and Antitank Weapons
Hamas displayed captured American arms on various affiliated websites and on its own al-Aqsa television network. It claimed to have captured thousands of M-16 and Kalashnikov assault rifles, along with large supplies of ammunition and stockpiles of RPGs, some equipped with dual warheads designed to penetrate armor. The group also possesses at least one Russian-made Dushka heavy machine gun that fires large-caliber rounds and can be mounted on vehicles.

Although it is unclear whether Hamas acquired more advanced antitank missiles from Fatah or through smuggling, the group now reportedly has Sagger missiles that are more accurate and sophisticated than standard or upgraded RPGs. The group also reportedly possesses Russian-made Konkors antitank weapons capable of piercing armor.

Antiaircraft Missiles and Rockets
Numerous sources, including Israel Defense Forces (IDF) chief of staff Gabi Ashkenazi, believe that Hamas has acquired antiaircraft munitions, including Strela (SA-7) missiles. Although Israeli military jets are equipped with systems to counter missiles, they may pose a threat to IDF helicopters and older aircraft. At the same time, however, these more advanced weapons will require a more sophisticated level of training on Hamas's part if they are to be effective.

Hamas has also significantly increased its rocket capability. Following Israel's disengagement from Gaza two years ago, the group began to improve its Qassam rocket manufacturing capabilities. Since the weapons' introduction in 2001, their range has been expanded considerably from the original 2-3 kilometers. Hamas's newest Qassam rocket has an estimated range of 17 kilometers, capable of hitting the Israeli coastal town of Ashkelon. With wider tubes, these rockets can also carry a greater payload of explosives.

In addition, Hamas has reportedly smuggled Katyusha rockets into Gaza. Both the Hamas-affiliated Palestinian Information Center and the website of Hamas's Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades acknowledged -- but did not specifically confirm -- Israeli reports that Hamas has acquired at least fifty long-range Katyushas. These rockets are more advanced than the homemade Qassams and are capable of striking targets up to 20 kilometers away. Hamas does not possess nearly as many of these rockets as Hizballah, which launched up to two hundred per day during its war with Israel last summer.

Since June, Hamas has largely refrained from rocket fire against Israel while it concentrates on governing Gaza. Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), however, continues to actively plan and execute attacks against Israel. According to Jane's Defence Weekly, PIJ has surpassed the Qassam Brigades in rocket manufacturing and technology. The al-Quds Brigades -- PIJ's military wing -- recently unveiled its latest rocket, dubbed the Quds-4, with a reported range of 18-22 kilometers. Overall, Israel has reported 121 rocket attacks in the two months since Hamas's takeover.

Captured Intelligence
Hamas claims to have obtained thousands of hard-copy files as well as computer records, photographs, and audiovisual recordings from the Fatah-run PA intelligence headquarters. Although most U.S. intelligence officials doubt that any highly sensitive material was compromised during the Gaza takeover, one former official with experience in Gaza told the Wall Street Journal in July, "People are worried, and reasonably so, about what kind of intelligence losses we may have suffered." In the same article, Bruce Riedel, an intelligence veteran and former National Security Council aide to Presidents Clinton and Bush, speculated that there would be "quite a treasure trove of materials that would document the relationship with the CIA."

In Gaza, Hamas's former foreign minister Mahmoud Zahar told Newsweek that the seized documents reveal global collaboration between Palestinian and U.S. intelligence operatives. Zahar and other Hamas leaders are using the documents as part of an ongoing public relations effort portraying their Fatah rivals as collaborators with Israel and the West.

In Israel, Dichter and other officials believe that Hamas has obtained eavesdropping equipment and other signals intelligence technology. This is a concern because Hamas could use such equipment to counter future efforts to monitor the group.

Hamas's Military Organization
Hamas is in the process of reorganizing its fighters into a more cohesive force. Israeli military officials estimate that the group has approximately 13,000 armed members divided into four brigades. Hamas was apparently inspired by Hizballah's war with Israel last summer and appears to be modeling its forces after the Lebanese Shiite militia. Israeli sources suggest that these changes are designed to help Hamas wage guerrilla warfare in the event of an Israeli invasion, with a focus on maximizing casualties among IDF forces and nearby Israeli population centers.

Hamas's Executive Force, the security unit established after group members were barred from integrating into the PA security apparatus, now numbers 6,000. Although its principal mission is to police Gaza, the force is also suspected of bolstering the Murabitun, Hamas's large popular army. Overall, Hamas is developing a diversified force capable of controlling domestic challenges and enhancing its capabilities against Israel.

Conclusion
Since Israel's 2005 disengagement from Gaza -- and especially since Hamas's more recent victory over Fatah -- Hamas has significantly enhanced its military capabilities across a range of areas. This is likely to protect the group from domestic challenges for the foreseeable future as well as provide it with more options, both offensive and defensive, in the event of a confrontation with Israel. However effective the economic and financial blockade against Hamas may be, there is no sign that such efforts have dented the group's control over Gaza or slowed the pace of its military development.
For now, Israel has opted not to initiate large-scale military operations in Gaza, wary of the casualties that would result. With the memory of last summer's war fresh in the public's mind, however, pressure could mount for Israel to take action against Hamas before the group grows strong enough to replicate Hizballah's actions. Under the current conditions, a high-casualty incident -- for example, a rocket strike on an Israeli target beyond Sderot -- would likely provoke a harsh response.

Nick Francona is a research intern at The Washington Institute.

View this PolicyWatch on our website at http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=2654

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The IDF’s Minorities in Numbers and Pictures

In honor of IDF Diversity Week, we present diversity through numbers and pictures. Each year, more and more Muslims, Christians, Druze, Bedouin and immigrants from around the world take on the responsibility of defending Israel.

MUSLIMS:

Muslim Arab Israelis are not required to draft in the IDF, but there are many who volunteer. In 2013, there were over 200 Muslims serving in the IDF and over 300 in the reserves.

Bedouins:

Bedouins are nomadic Muslims who were in Israel when modern borders were set in place and are now considered Israeli citizens. They are not required to draft but a growing number choose to enlist. In 2012, there were over 1,400 Bedouin Muslim soldiers doing regular IDF service and almost 1,500 in the reserves.

Read more:http://www.idfblog.com/2014/02/27/truth-idf-numbers-pictures/#more-34027

Are you aware that in 2013, Middle class taxes go up-significantly?

In January of next year, the federal income tax rate for middle-class taxpayers is scheduled to rise from 25 percent to 28 percent, and the payroll tax is scheduled to rise from 13.3 percent to 15.3 percent… This drives the marginal tax rate based on the aforementioned three taxes to 48.12 percent. Add in state and local property, corporate, excise, and other state and local taxes, and the percentage of each additional dollar that is taxed hovers around 50 percent… When half of each additional dollar earned is taxed away, taxpayers experience a disincentive to start businesses or expand existing ones. This leads to fewer jobs being created.

Why is HAMAS Inside Tampa Schools?

Clare Lopez

Kelly Miliziano, who teaches history classes at Steinbrenner High School in the Tampa, Florida area apparently thinks it’s perfectly OK to invite a senior official of a HAMAS-affiliated organization into her classroom to discuss Islam with her students. According to local media reports, not only has this been going on for years, but in spite of the civil and criminal proceedings that could result from such reckless negligence, the Hillsborough County school superintendent, Mary Ellen Elia, and the chairman of the school board, Candy Olson, also expressed approval for students under their responsibility to be exposed repeatedly to guest speaker, Hassan Shibly, who is the Executive Director for the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) in the Tampa area.
More...

Did You Know... Ignoring the Call to Islam will Bring Jihad

‘Conquest through Da’wa [proselytizing] that is what we hope for. We will conquer Europe, we will conquer America! Not through sword but through Da’wa.’
-- Yousef al-Qaradawi , Muslim Brotherhood spiritual leader The Arabic word ‘Da’wa’ means the “call to Islam.” But do not think that Da’wa is the same thing as an invitation to an optional holiday event. The classical Islamic doctrine of jihad mandates that enemies must be given the opportunity to convert to Islam or pay the jizya tax before it is permissible to attack them.
Clare M. Lopez

Who is being discriminated-facts tell the truth

Religious bias

Hate crimes motivated by religious bias accounted for 1,409 offenses reported by law enforcement. A breakdown of the bias motivation of religious-bias offenses showed:

65.4 percent were anti-Jewish.
13.2 percent were anti-Islamic.
9.5 percent were anti-other religion, i.e., those not specified.
4.3 percent were anti-Catholic.
3.8 percent were anti-multiple religions, group.
3.3 percent were anti-Protestant.
0.5 percent were anti-Atheism/Agnosticism/etc.

http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/hate-crime/2010/narratives/hate-crime-2010-incidents-and-offenses.

On March 31, 1977, the Dutch newspaper Trouw published an interview

with PLO executive committee member Zahir Muhsein. Here's what he said:

"The Palestinian people does not exist. The creation of a Palestinian state is only a means for continuing our struggle against the state of Israel for our Arab unity. In reality today there is no difference between Jordanians, Palestinians, Syrians and Lebanese. Only for political and tactical reasons do we speak today about the existence of a Palestinian people, since Arab national interests demand that we posit the existence of a distinct "Palestinian people" to oppose Zionism.

For tactical reasons, Jordan, which is a sovereign state with defined borders, cannot raise claims to Haifa and Jaffa, while as a Palestinian, I can undoubtedly demand Haifa, Jaffa, Beer-Sheva and Jerusalem. However, the moment we reclaim our right to all of Palestine, we will not wait even a minute to unite Palestine and Jordan."

In March 1977, Zahir Muhsein, a PLO executive, said:

"The Palestinian people does not exist. The creation of a Palestinian state is only a means for continuing our struggle against the state of Israel for our Arab unity. In reality today there is no difference between Jordanians, Palestinians, Syrians and Lebanese. Only for political and tactical reasons do we speak today about the existence of a Palestinian people, since Arab national interests demand that we posit the existence of a distinct Palestinian people to oppose Zionism."

"For tactical reasons, Jordan, which is a sovereign state with defined borders, cannot raise claims to Haifa and Jaffa, while as a Palestinian, I can undoubtedly demand Haifa, Jaffa, Beer-Sheva and Jerusalem. However, the moment we reclaim our right to all of Palestine, we will not wait even a minute to unite Palestine and Jordan."

The Arab Apartheid

Ben-Dror Yemini
In 1948, the Arab countries refused to accept the UN partition proposal and they launched a war of annihilation against the State of Israel which had barely been established. All precedents in this matter showed that the party that starts the war - and with a declaration of annihilation, yet - pays a price for it. Between 550,000 and 710,000 Arabs fled because of the war and a larger number of 850,000 Jews were expelled or fled from Arab countries (the "Jewish nakba").
Population exchanges and expulsions were the norm at that time, occurring in dozens of other conflict points and affecting about 52 million people. In all the population exchange precedents that occurred during or at the end of an armed conflict, there was no return of refugees to the previous region, which had turned into a new national state.
Only the Arab states acted completely differently from the rest of the world. Instead of assimilating the refugees, they crushed them despite the fact that they were their coreligionists and members of the Arab nation - instituting a regime of apartheid. So the "nakba" was not caused by the actual dispossession, which had also been experienced by tens of millions of others. The "nakba" is the story of the apartheid, oppression, abuse and denial of rights suffered by the Arab refugees at the hands of the Arab countries. (Maariv)

International Law and Military Operations in Practice - Col. Richard Kemp

"Islamist fighting groups study the international laws of armed conflict carefully and they understand it well. They know that a British or Israeli commander and his men are bound by international law and the rules of engagement that flow from it. They then do their utmost to exploit what they view as one of their enemy's main weaknesses. Their very modus operandi is built on the correct assumption that Western armies will normally abide by the rules, while these insurgents employ a deliberate policy of operating consistently outside international law. "

Lost Historical Moments

What Rabin’s last Knesset speech really said:repudiation of a Palestinian state

Rabin ruled out a fully sovereign Palestinian state :

“We view the permanent solution in the framework of State of Israel which will include most of the area of the Land of Israel as it was under the rule of the British Mandate, and alongside it a Palestinian entity which will be a home to most of the Palestinian residents living in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank. We would like this to be an entity which is less than a state, and which will independently run the lives of the Palestinians under its authority.”

Rabin ruled out a total withdrawal from Judea and Samaria and thus a return to the pre-June 1967 borders :

“The borders of the State of Israel, during the permanent solution, will be beyond the lines which existed before the Six Day War. We will not return to the 4 June 1967 lines.”

Rabin ruled out withdrawing form the Jordan Valley:

“The security border of the State of Israel will be located in the Jordan Valley, in the broadest meaning of that term.”

Rabin ruled out uprooting settlement blocs, like the Gush Katif bloc in Gaza (which was subsequently uprooted by former Prime Minister Ariel Sharon):

“The establishment of blocs of settlements in Judea and Samaria, like the one in Gush Katif.

AND

Rabin ruled out removing any settlement before coming to a full peace agreement with the Palestinians:

“I want to remind you: we committed ourselves, that is, we came to an agreement, and committed ourselves before the Knesset, not to uproot a single settlement in the framework of the interim agreement, and not to hinder building for natural growth.”

Rabin insisted on Israel retaining full security control of the borders with Egypt and Jordan, contrary to Israel’s relinquishment of the Philadelphia Corridor on the border with Egypt:

“The responsibility for external security along the borders with Egypt and Jordan, as well as control over the airspace above all of the territories and Gaza Strip maritime zone, remains in our hands.”

Correcting Oslo Myths-Part 2

3) Kuttab laments that the post-1993 Oslo process resulted in a Palestinian Authority "whose ministers and legislators are not guaranteed passage between Gaza and the West Bank ...."

Before free passage or other perquisites, PA leaders were obligated, among other things, to eliminate the terrorist infrastructure in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, end anti-Israeli, antisemitic incitement in schools, mosques, and communications media, and resolve all outstanding issues through peaceful negotiations. They met none of these commitments, sometimes bolstering terrorism and greatly increasing incitement.

4) Kuttab complains that under Oslo the PA got "lightly armed police ---- but no real sovereignty over the land or contiguity between our communities in Gaza and the West Bank."

Oslo agreements repeatedly were revised, regardless of Palestinian non-compliance, until the authorized number of police grew from 8,000 to 40,000. Though they were to be the only armed forces in the territories, Israeli estimates early in the second intifada put the number of gunmen - police, "security services," terrorists, and armed gangs - at 85,000. Their armament reportedly included not only heavy machine guns and rocket-propelled grenades, but also anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles.

Sovereignty was to be negotiated in the envisioned 1998 "final status" talks - after a five-year period of confidence-building. Palestinian leadership chronically undermined the process. Palestinian terrorism made the 1993 - 1998 Oslo period more deadly for Israelis than the 15 years preceding it.

The United States doesn't have contiguity between the lower 48 states and Alaska and Hawaii; territorial contiguity between the West Bank and Gaza Strip - that is, through the 20 miles of Israeli territory between them - was never promised and would destroy Israeli contiguity.

5) "Palestinians have been made to endure hundreds of checkpoints in the West Bank, an eight-foot wall deep in our territories, and tight Israeli control over borders."

The security barrier is not "deep in Palestinian territories," but rather encompasses less than 8 percent of Judea and Samaria, and is mostly a fence, rarely a wall; the land in question is not "our [Palestinian] territories" but disputed territory to which, according to the authors of U.N. Security Council Resolution 242, Jews as well as Arabs have claims; and there are no international borders, only the 1949 armistice lines with Jordan. Under 242, borders remain to be negotiated. As for checkpoints - like the security barrier and "tight Israeli control" - Palestinian Arabs precipitated these measures themselves. No terrorism and there would be no fence or tight Israeli control and few checkpoints - like before the first intifada.

Correcting Some Oslo Myths

1) In Oslo "Israeli, Palestinian and other world leaders promised that ... Palestinian sovereignty would be solidified."

No, they didn't. The 1993 Declaration of Principles and subsequent Oslo agreements outlined a process by which final status negotiations about the West Bank and Gaza Strip would be reached. The process required an end to anti-Israel terrorism and incitement and a commitment to peaceful negotiations. The PA, Fatah, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, and other terrorist groups, sabotaged the process from the start.

2) "The reality is that, in defiance of U.N. Security Council Resolution 242, which states that it is inadmissible to occupy land by force, Palestinian territories are still under foreign military occupation."
Wrong again. Resolution 242 (1967) does note "the inadmissibility of the acquisition of territory by war." It also affirms the right of every state in the area "to live in peace with secure and recognized boundaries free from threats or acts of force." There were no "Palestinian territories." Jordan occupied the West Bank, Egypt controlled Gaza. Israel did not have "secure and recognized boundaries," so retention of some of those territories was possible under 242. Israel is not a "foreign" military occupier in the West Bank but, pending final negotiations, the lawful military administrator as a result of a successful war of self-defense.

Doc's Talk