Sunday, February 13, 2011

Turmoil in the Middle East: My Take

Naomi Ragen

February 12, 2011 -- Instead of bombarding you with daily handwringing over the situation in the Middle East, I decided to wait it out so as not to imitate certain journalists and world leaders (who shall remain nameless) who were taking sides before even knowing what that meant. I think now, with Mubarak apparently gone, that there are certain things that are possible to say:

The people of Egypt, like all the peoples of the Middle East save for Israel, were mired in a political system that was corrupt and which did not allow them to pursue life, liberty or the pursuit of happiness. There is no way for an Egyptian to start a business or get the financial means to marry without bribes and years of horrifying bureaucratic nightmares. That was and has always been the reason for instability in the Middle East. This, not Israel, is probably the leading cause for the rise of Muslim fanatics and terror organizations that are destroying the peace of the whole world. Unfortunately, this fact is something the democracies have long ignored. This is a wake-up call for them. Let's see if they sleep through it.

Mubarak has always kept Egypt's treaties with Israel. For that, the people of Israel are grateful. We are also grateful that he did what needed to be done to control the threat of the Muslim Brotherhood. Founded in Egypt in 1928 to promote sharia law, it created a military wing which had close links to the Nazis during the 1930s, when the Brotherhood was involved in spying, sabotage and support for the terrorist activities of Haj Amin el-Hussaini,in British Mandate Palestine. The Brotherhood disseminated Hitler's Mein Kampf and The Protocols of the Elders of Zion widely in Arab translations,

Douglas E. Schoen, adviser to four former Israeli Prime Ministers over the last 30 years, wrote in a Fox News editorial that if elections are held in Egypt now, there is a fifty percent chance of the Muslim Brotherhood taking over the country. For Israel, that would be a nightmare. We can only hope against hope that the true will of the people who started this revolt to make better lives for themselves and their families will not allow one dictatorship to replace another, leading to a war that will no doubt prove disastrous for everyone.

The White House, in this terrible time of uncertainty and change in the Middle East, has been confused to say the least, and dangerously wrong-headed. Encouraging the protestors, then siding with Mubarak, then welcoming Mubarak's ouster just before Mubarak declared he wasn't leaving has left us in Israel shaking our heads. With this kind of instability in Washington, where is the strong ally we pretend we have?

Comment: As much as I appreciate Ms. Ragen's work my take is different. The Army is in control. It has multiple incentives to dis allow the MB any possible intrusion into the new government. An untold story thus far has been how the ranking military leaders have also prospered under the reign of Mubarak, e.g., grants, business arrangements to mention but a few. They have the support of the general population for the moment based in part to their behavior these last 20 days. In addition, the remaining 79 million 750,000 Egyptians who did not "revolt" want desperately for life to return to "normal". The Muslim Brotherhood, well organized and having infiltrated every group from law enforcement to the military still do not have anywhere near consensus in any group. Assuming that "calmer heads" within the Army and for sure in the business and trade communities, immediate programs will be developed to serve the less than middle class in Egypt. They will enroll the academics,entertainers and key business leaders to help form the transition program. Of course, time will tell.

No comments: