What Would An Egyptian Election Look Like?

RubinReports
Barry Rubin

Obviously, we don't know but let me make a reasonable speculation:

Muslim Brotherhood and ElBaradei run on a joint ticket, win 60 percent

Regime group (whatever they call themselves) 30 percent

Left-wing parties: 5 percent

Good-government reformers (the idealistic people from the demonstrations) 5 percent

Outcome:
West argues ElBaradei tames Brotherhood! Hooray! U.S. aid continues. Actual result: Brotherhood is cautious but uses ElBaradei to increase its power, move society toward Islamism, and push a radical and pro-Islamist foreign policy.

I reserve the right to alter this analysis but I think it is a reasonable one that tells us what we need to know.

Note: If ElBaradei runs separately, I predict the outcome would be the same. Remember something about the Brotherhood: it is cautious in strategy but extremist in goals.

I'd be delighted to hear how others would argue this differently. I guess the main way is not to see any distinction between the idealistic young people and ElBaradei. The other criticism would be that the Brotherhood is really moderate but that doesn't effect the election estimates. And to anyone who believes the Brotherhood is really weak and will get less than 25 percent of the seats (unless it cautiously chooses to take fewer) I would be doubtful.

Also note that I'm not writing this to keep Mubarak or the regime in power. U.S. policy is now set, and otherwise domestic developments will determine what happens.