Well, the grandchildren have gone
home and Kaitana Savta ("Camp Grandma") is over for this summer. It
afforded me a great deal of (exhausting) joy, and gave me strength for the work
I do.
It will be back to normal very
soon. But as Shabbat preparations are necessary today, I will start
here with a mini-posting on one of the key issues we are confronting today: The
situation in Egypt.
You may have noticed that when I
wrote about Morsi's dismissal of Tantawi I was more circumspect than many other
commentators. For example, I noted that Morsi consulted with Tantawi
before retiring him and gave him an honorary position afterward. And I asked,
This is a coup? A completion of the revolution?
Then came announcements or
suggestions that al-Sisi, Tantawi's replacement is a closet Brotherhood
supporter, and I began to wonder if I had been too cautious, too
circumspect.
~~~~~~~~~~
Well... I've checked with Egyptian
English language media sources and I've consulted with some experts in the
field. And what I'm seeing is that this is a nuanced and vastly
complex situation. It's not, "Yikes! the Brotherhood
has totally taken over Egypt now."
As to al-Sisi, the Egyptian
media sources vary on whether he is Brotherhood connected. There are
a great number of rumors floating and various accusations and
denials. The Facebook page administrator for SCAF put out an official
statement denying that al-Sisi was the Brotherhood's man inside
of the military.
What seems clear in the end is
that while he may have some Brotherhood sympathies, he is not
Brotherhood.
Dr. Moti Kedar provided
a complex picture for me: Lots of people in Egypt approve of some of
the things Brotherhood does without endorsing their entire program. Some
approve of more, some less. It is not black and white: Brotherhood or not
Brotherhood. Kedar says al-Sisi is definitely not overtly
Brotherhood.
What is more, says Kedar, the
military consented to stepping back and allowing Morsi to run the
country. Or, more accurately, to try to run it -- as he's taking on
a horrendous national situation. "Let's see how you do," was the
attitude.
Kedar -- who says the problem with
many commentators is that they don't know Arabic and don't track what is being
said in Egypt -- believes that the military is still in the
picture.
He sees two scenarios that would
bring the military back in more forcefully. The first, and most significant, is
if Morsi came after military wealth. The military is the wealthiest
segment of the society. (It has been my understanding that the military
wanted to stay in control in good part because of a vested interest --
their desire to protect that wealth.)
The second is if Morsi were to
mess up really badly.
~~~~~~~~~~
Add to this the fact that there
are civilian anti-Brotherhood elements in the country -- headed by talk show
host Tawfiq Okasha and former MP Mostafa Bakry -- that have gained
increasing prominence of late. There have been calls to burn down the
Brotherhood offices across the country, and former MP Mohamed Abou Hamed is
pushing for a one-million-person anti-Brotherhood rally
on August 24. The sentiment expressed is that the intentions of
the original mass rallies in Tahrir Square have yet to
be realized.
~~~~~~~~~~
And so, while I would not say the
picture in Egypt is rosy - certainly not -- it is still a wait and
see situation with outcomes unclear.
Hesham Selam, writing in Egypt
Independent, says (emphasis added):
"...as compelling as it is to
interpret these recent developments as a civilian coup against Egypt’s military
rulers, there are some indications that they are the product of a
movement within the military’s own ranks to avert an impending
confrontation with civilian political forces and to reconfigure the army’s role
in politics in a way that leaves its autonomy and long-term interests
intact.
"...personnel reshuffles
and meaningful institutional change are not one and the same.
Simply that the military has undergone an internal purge and conceded
presidential and legislative powers to Morsy on paper does not necessarily mean
the institution is ready to give up its long-standing privileges. These
include the undue power the military enjoys in shaping defense and
national security policy, as well as the political and
financial autonomy of its operations, budget and its vast
revenue-generating economic empire from elected civilian institutions and public
accountability. In fact, the military’s recent concessions to civilian
leaders may have been aimed at protecting these very privileges, not giving them
up. In other words, there may be a long road ahead in the quest for
meaningful civilian oversight of military institutions and
leaders...
.
"Finally, and most importantly,
Egypt’s still inconclusive struggle for revolutionary change cannot be
reduced to power politics between the military and the
Brotherhood."
~~~~~~~~~~
On to other matters after
Shabbat.
~~~~~~~~~~
©
Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by Arlene Kushner,
functioning as an independent journalist. Permission is granted for it to be
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