August 23, 2012
http://wordfromjerusalem.com/?p=4241
In recent weeks, the ugly side
of Israeli public life has been on display with irresponsible
politicians supported by the sensationalist media, engaging in cheap
demagoguery in relation to the Iranian nuclear threat.
Yet simultaneously, in the
course of one week, Iranian President Ahmadinejad announced that “Israel
is a malignant cancer” and that “the black stain of Zionism must be
removed”, Ayatollah Khomeini stated that “Israel will disappear from the
map” and a prominent Iranian general proclaimed that “Israel must be
destroyed forever”. In the light of such incitement, to deny that a
nuclear Iran represents an existential threat to Israel is to deny
reality.
Mutual assured deterrence (MAD),
which prevented a nuclear conflict between the US and the Soviet Union
during the Cold War, is inapplicable today. A messianic Islamic
leadership convinced that by ‘nuking’ Israel it will expedite the coming
of the Mahdi and obtain heavenly rewards for its adherents, is unlikely
to be deterred out of fear that its people would also be incinerated.
Whilst being on the frontlines,
this is far from being an exclusively Israeli problem. A nuclear Iran
will alter the balance of power in the Middle East with potentially
disastrous implications for global stability and as US Defense Secretary
Louis Panetta warned, would pose an enormous threat to the US and the
rest of the world.
Netanyahu’s campaign has
certainly obliged the United States and Western countries to confront
the nightmare that would ensue should Iran emerge as the dominant
regional nuclear power. But I do not believe that he is simply bluffing
about an independent Israeli strike.
So far, although U.S. sanctions
have impacted on the Iranian economy, with China, India and Japan
continuing to trade, the Iranians seem determined to press on. I avoid
adopting a public position on how I believe Israel should respond
because I lack access to the intelligence to enable an evaluation of
Ehud Barak’s “zone of immunity” or assess the odds of a successful solo
Israeli military offensive to destroy or delay the Iranian bomb.
The decision on the timing or
whether or not to take military action will not be determined by Prime
Minister Netanyahu alone but by a majority of the security cabinet which
comprises a cross-section of responsible leaders reflecting the broad
political mainstream. I have confidence in their integrity to make a
rational decision on what they consider will best serve the interests of
the nation. It is absurd to suggest that such policies should be
determined by engaging public opinion.
We all recognize that a military operation spearheaded by the US
would be far more effective than Israel going it alone. Many of us wish
we could rely on President Obama’s vague undertakings that the US will
ensure that Iran does not become a nuclear power. However, when we
review the track record of third parties who pledged to stand by us in
times of need, it would be a somewhat daunting gamble to rely
exclusively on broad US undertakings in relation to such a crucial issue
impinging on our future.
Besides, the US hardly has a
great success rate of preventing rogue states like North Korea from
developing weapons of mass destruction. That applies especially to Obama
who is not renowned for taking tough global military decisions and
continues to defer to the dysfunctional Islamic and rogue dominated UN.
Nor for that matter to Mitt Romney who if elected, may also hesitate to
inaugurate his term with a major military confrontation which may result
in severe negative ramifications on the global economy.
Whilst the negative statements
issued by US spokesmen in recent weeks could be highly sophisticated
examples of disinformation, it is more likely that they reflect the
reality that nothing has yet been resolved. Of course, when Obama meets
Netanyahu in the fall, he could persuade him to suspend independent
action by convincing him that a US military option is credible and
committed to a timeline for acting in the absence of any diplomatic
breakthrough with the mullahs.
Failing any progress, our
government is now preparing the Israeli public for the possibility that
Israel will be obliged to act independently.
Yet unlike previous occasions
when there was little public debate prior to Israel taking unilateral
military action, today we have a surfeit of politicians afflicted with
flapping gums, babbling away, creating confusion and undermining unity
and confidence on the home front.
The most recent outburst was
from President Shimon Peres who until now had appeared to have set aside
his days as a politician and committed to acting as a responsible
President. Now, the man who sought to undermine Begin for taking out
Saddam Hussein's nuclear reactor, who predicted a ‘New Middle East’
after the Oslo Accords and supported the disastrous 2005 unilateral
withdrawal from Gaza, is demanding that Israel not “attack Iran alone”.
Such a statement contradicting government policy is totally beyond the
jurisdiction of a president.
The hysterical personal attacks
on Netanyahu by Opposition Leader Shaul Mofaz were simply mind-boggling.
He ranted that the PM was “playing a dangerous and irresponsible game
with the future of the entire nation.” He accused Netanyahu of promoting
war in order to influence the outcome of the US Presidential elections,
asking “why are you putting your hands deep in the American ballot
boxes” and “endangering the future of our children”. So much for a
responsible opposition!
In a similar vein, discredited
former PM Ehud Olmert, the architect of the failed Second Lebanon War,
insisted that “Iran is far from the point of no return in terms of its
nuclear project” and expressed “alarm” at the “great public damage”
Netanyahu’s warlike policies were inflicting on Israel which “disgusted
us”.
Aside from Israel Hayom, the
Hebrew media also went overboard. Ha’aretz and even more so Yediot and
the major TV stations assailed Netanyahu’s “irresponsibility” and even
accused him of seeking to go to war with Iran in order to divert
attention from social issues. The journalists are not privy to
intelligence or inside information, yet they run scare stories on the
home front and attempt to create panic. Ha’aretz even published an
article headlined “Mr. Netanyahu, before you bomb Iran, say goodbye to
everyone you know”.
The hysteria has extended with
retired IDF chiefs of staff and former intelligence heads joining the
fray, hinting that the PM would be accountable to a Commission of
Inquiry if military operations failed.
There were bizarre
demonstrations against military action. Artists Gila Almagor and
Achinoam Nini promoted anti-war petitions. There was even a seditious
petition from 400 academics, including a former head of Tel Aviv
University’s Faculty of Law, calling on pilots to refuse to obey orders
to bomb Iran.
Yet notwithstanding this
hysteria, Israelis remain calm. Some update their gas masks and check
their shelters, but overall life goes on and there is no panic. Because
Israelis today are reasonably confident that our leaders will decide
what is best for the nation and recognize that if necessary we must
confront those who seek our demise.
The writer’s website can be viewed at www.wordfromjerusalem.com
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