One
of the mantras from Israel’s supposed foreign
well-wishers is that the country is now “isolated.” You can tell the
hostile ones because they quickly add that this alleged isolation is
Israel’s own fault.
Sure,
on the surface the first proposition makes sense. Israel has lost its
two main regional friends—Turkey and Egypt—which are now hostile. The
United States under its current government—but doesn’t President Barack
Obama love Israel?—is no longer reliable. Isn't rather notable that
despite these two countries turning totally against Israel this has had
zero effect on the Obama Administration's totally positive policy toward
both, a list to which could be added the Hizballah regime in Lebanon
mentioned above. Perhaps the U.S. election in November will change this
situation but there's nothing Israel can do about
that.
Yet
none of this is in fact Israel’s fault. The Turkish people elected and
reelected a subtly Islamist regime that loathes Israel for reasons
having nothing to do with Israel. The Egyptian people elected an openly
Islamist regime that loathes Israel for reasons having nothing to do
with Israel. The problem is the ideology of the rulers. And the same
thing applies to the United States, doesn’t it? At least in Egypt the
armed forces are holding back the Muslim Brotherhood.
Erdogan,
al-Mursi, and Obama are not really reacting to some Israeli mistaken
policy and the problems won’t be solved by more unilateral Israeli
concessions. Indeed, given the dangers of the situation—and most
Israelis appreciate this—such give aways are out of the question.
Nothing Israel does will fix the problem and any retreats will make
matters worse.
Nor
is anything Israel does likely to move negotiations with the
Palestinian Authority ahead by even an inch (or, if you prefer, a
centimeter).
So
the situation isn’t wonderful on the surface and anyone who reads the
newspapers and develops great theories in his own mind can reach that
conclusion.
Yet
the following development, for example, is more important than all of
the anti-Israel media articles and
boycott campaigns of the last year put together: This week the European
Union is offering Israel upgraded relations in 60 different areas,
removing all obstacles against Israel having full access to European
government-controlled markets and cooperation with nine EU agencies,
including Europol and the European Space Agency.
But
let’s look deeper, specifically at the situation immediately on
Israel’s borders, to see if things are as bad as they might seem.
Lebanon:
Neighboring Lebanon is governed by Hizballah and various clients of
Syria and Iran. That’s not good. Yet let’s remember that Hizballah and
its allies are now trembling over what might be the impending fall
of their Syrian backer. How will they fare without the Damascus
dictator behind them? A Sunni Muslim dominated Syrian regime might hate
Israel but it will not love or help those who aided the government that
was murdering them.
And
the Lebanese government has another problem. It wants to consolidate
control over Lebanon and rule the country. Fomenting a war with Israel
that brings Israeli warplanes to destroy the country’s power plants,
bridges, airport, and pretty much every other major infrastructural
project will make Hizballah hated.
A Hizballah direct offensive against Israel is not in the cards.
By
the way, people are forgetting the implications of blaming Hizballah
for the terrorist attack in Bulgaria that killed five Israeli tourists.
Hizballah is not some group hanging out in caves; it is the government
of Lebanon. So will a U.S. government that has publicly blamed Hizballah
for the attack actually take any action against Hizballah the
government? Probably not but isn’t that a disgrace? Maybe after January
20 there will be someone in Washington DC who will recognize the rather
bizarre contradiction in such behavior.
Then
there’s tottering Syria. Israeli defense officials have pointed to the
danger of jihadists operating in sections of Syria near the Golan
Heights but no longer under the control of an overextended central
government. True, Israel should be prepared for
such a danger.
Yet
the Golan border is well defended and closely watched. Terrorists are
unlikely to be able to cross. As for a massive influx of Syrian
refugees, why should they chance the minefields when they can more
easily get out through Iraq, Lebanon, or Turkey? The long-run threat
from a Sunni Islamist regime is real but then so is the discomfiting of
an Iran deprived of its main ally. And Syria’s armed forces are going to
be a mess for years to come. So once again this is an issue that must
be taken seriously but is not all that menacing.
Let’s
jump over to Egypt. Israel's high priority is to build up its defensive
forces along the border and complete the security fence there.
Cross-border attacks are now a real problem. Yet they can be defended
against. These attacks consist of terrorists firing across the border or
advancing a very short distance into Israeli territory--mainly to fire
on a single road that runs near the border--before they can be
intercepted. For a real threat to exist, the situation would have to
deteriorate considerably, with large terrorist units operating openly on
Egyptian soil and being able to transport rockets from the Gaza Strip
through miles of Egyptian territory. That could happen but we are
nowhere near that point and such a scenario would mean that the Egyptian
government and army were openly courting full-scale war.
As
long as the army is still running Egypt, though, the danger of a major
upsurge in cross-border assaults or, even worse, an attack on Israel
from
Hamas in the Gaza Strip that would be backed by Egypt is limited.
Israel has time to prepare.
Israel’s
number-one border problem remains the Gaza Strip. Hamas periodically
fires mortars and rockets while trying cross-border ground attacks.
Israel has gotten its ground defenses in good shape and has created a
fairly effective anti-rocket system. This doesn’t make things more
pleasant for citizens in that part of Israel and it is quite possible
that a new war will break out in future, as happened in late 2008. Yet
such a battle is not an existential threat of the type common from 1948
into the 1970s.
Regarding
Jordan, the regime has survived the Arab Spring and is still committed
to controlling
the border, a task it has handled pretty well over forty years.
Terrorism from the West Bank remains a constant threat but the fence has
made it a lot harder. That’s why Israel ignores, and will continue to
ignore, international criticism. Might there be a new intifadah some
day? Yes, but not that soon, if only because the Palestinian Authority
realizes that such a gambit risks Hamas using the violence to promote
itself and kick out its nationalist rivals.
Now
none of this is meant to be complacent. But it is important to
understand that Israel starts off with a much higher threat level than
that faced by other Western developed countries which consider almost
any threat with trepidation. By Israeli standards the problems are
manageable.
And
that’s why the main efforts of terrorist groups are to attack Israeli
citizens and installations outside the country’s borders. The chief of
military intelligence has revealed that twenty such plots were broken up
before the one in Bulgaria succeeded.
Israel’s
“friends” abroad simply can’t seem to get out of their minds the idea
that the country faces such terrible threats that it must make big
concessions and beg for peace with the Palestinians on just about any
terms, or try to appease hostile surrounding countries in order to stave
off their wrath.
What
they don’t—and at times don’t want to—understand is that the
situation is the exact opposite. When forces are after you that want to
wipe you off the map, you cannot depend on your “friends,” and know
that no compromise solution is desired by the other side, that’s the
time to look after your own interests and defense.
The
overwhelming majority of Israelis across the political spectrum
understand this. Consequently, it doesn’t matter at all that Western
pseudo-experts, pundits, and politicians don’t. Being isolated from
strategic reality is far more dangerous than being isolated because
people don’t like you.
Professor Barry Rubin, Director, Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center http://www.gloria-center.org
The Rubin Report blog http://rubinreports.blogspot.com/
He is a featured columnist at PJM http://pajamasmedia.com/barryrubin/.
Editor, Middle East Review of International Affairs (MERIA) Journal http://www.gloria-center.org
Editor Turkish Studies,http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/title~db=all~content=t713636933%22
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