Morgan Lorraine Roach
In his State of the Union address, President Obama showed a stunning
lack of reality on terrorism and the Arab Spring. The President’s
statement saluting “the courage and sacrifice of those who serve in
dangerous places at great personal risk” unfortunately rings hollow when
one considers the Administration’s treatment of the Benghazi terrorist
attack. While the Administration has insisted that al-Qaeda is losing
steam, the terrorist network and its affiliates are growing in places
like Libya and Mali.
Perspective is badly needed. Two years after Mohammed Bouazizi set
himself on fire on the streets of his hometown in Tunisia, the political
makeup of North Africa and the Middle East are unrecognizable. The
fight against injustice has morphed into a scramble for power. The fight
for democracy has deteriorated back to the status quo. And Islamist
militants have exploited the gaping power vacuum. Looking at the
countries affected by the Arab Spring, a pattern of instability remains.
Tunisia
Following the ouster of the Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali regime, Tunisia
experienced an easier government transition than others. With a secular
tradition, well-educated population, and sizeable middle class, Tunisia
was better equipped to overcome the challenge. Yet, the election of the Islamist Al-Nahda party,
previously banned under Ben Ali, exceeded expectations in the
legislative elections—a harbinger of what was to come in Egypt and
Libya.
The future of Tunisia’s stability is questionable. Last week, protestors took to the streets following the assassination
of the opposition figure, Chokri Belaid. Many in Tunisia are
dissatisfied with the Islamist-led government and demand that the
Tunisian people are better represented.
Egypt
Since Egypt’s dictator Hosni Mubarak was toppled, the Egyptian people
have lacked a stable government. The Muslim Brotherhood, banned under
Mubarak, took advantage of its broad support and was the clear winner in
the country’s first democratic elections. Yet Egypt’s new president,
Mohammed Morsi, is little more than an autocrat under a different guise.
In November, he granted himself sweeping powers
over the judiciary and other branches of government and the Egyptian
security forces—who once cracked down on the Muslim Brotherhood—are now
its enforcers. Additionally, Morsi has set a troubling new foreign policy agenda. His government has distanced itself from Washington while cozying up to China and Hamas (a U.S.-designated terrorist organization), improving relations with Iran, and violating its peace treaty with Israel.
Libya
Since the fall of Muammar Qadhafi in September 2011, Libya’s
transitional government has been unable to implement rule of law
throughout much of the country. The September 11, 2012, terrorist attack
on the U.S. special mission in Benghazi, which killed four Americans
including Ambassador Christopher Stevens, was a direct result of the
country’s rampant instability. While the Libyan government moved quickly
to denounce the attack and has offered its cooperation in finding the
terrorists, little has been achieved in bringing the perpetrators to
justice.
The instability in North Africa has also trickled to the Sahel and indirectly affected Mali specifically. Last Spring, Islamist militants occupied the northern part of the country, prompting French military intervention
last month. Militant violence has also spilled over into Algeria where a
terrorist attack, spearheaded by a former leader of al-Qaeda in the
Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), killed three Americans.
Syria
After a two-year civil war, Syria’s Bashar al-Assad has yet to cave.
The Syrian opposition movement has levied significant blows to the
regime, yet support from Iran and Russia has helped to keep Assad in
power. Despite more than 60,000 deaths and hundreds of thousands of
people displaced, the international community has done little to speed
the regime’s collapse.
In the midst of the carnage, terrorist groups such as the Al-Nusra
Front, an al-Qaeda affiliate, have infiltrated the country and exploited
the instability. The United States is currently assisting Turkey, a
NATO ally, in protecting its border against potential ballistic missile attacks, yet there is no strategy for resolving the crisis.
Yemen
Yemen’s revolution resulted in little more than a return to the status quo. Last February, President Ali Abdullah Saleh stepped down
from power. Saleh was succeeded by Abed Rabu Mansour Hadi, who served
as his vice president. Hadi, who represents continuity much more than
genuine change, now faces enormous challenges in stabilizing Yemen, one
of the poorest and most turbulent Arab countries.
Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), headquartered in Yemen,
remains a threat to U.S. and international security. During the
revolution, AQAP attempted to consolidate its power in the south,
occupying several major towns. While Yemen’s government has cooperated
in the Obama Administration’s frequent use of drone strikes, it has
failed to curb AQAP’s activity.
From Arab Spring to Islamist Winter
The Arab Spring has ushered in an unprecedented political transformation that has deteriorated into an “Islamist Winter.”
The elections that have been held have resulted in victories for
anti-Western Islamist political parties that are ideologically
predisposed to oppose U.S. foreign policy goals.
Although al-Qaeda and its affiliates played a small role in the
initial phases of the Arab uprisings, they have exploited the power
vacuum and are now well placed to expand their influence. It is in the
U.S. national interest, as well as in the interests of U.S. allies, to
prevent Islamist extremists from hijacking the unfinished revolutions
and imposing totalitarian dictatorships in the affected countries. That
will not happen without focused leadership from Washington.
Morgan Lorraine Roach is a research associate in Heritage’s Margaret Thatcher Center for Freedom.
LEARN MORE:
The Arab Spring Descends Into Islamist Winter: Implications for U.S. Policy
Gaza Crisis: U.S. Should Press Egypt to Rein in Hamas
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