North Korea may be an economic basket case with a gross domestic product less
than half that of Ethiopia and much of the population malnourished and
lacking even an electrical light to turn on when darkness falls. North
Koreans may enjoy no freedoms or human rights, with an estimated 200,000
confined to concentration camps. But North Korea has nuclear weapons and missiles so when Kim Jong Un, its 30-year-old Supreme Leader —
a status inherited from his father and grandfather before him — issues
threats, the United States and other nations listen up.
There are lessons here,
and we should assume that among those learning them is Ayatollah Ali
Khamenei, Iran's Supreme Leader. In talks last week in Almaty,
Kazakhstan, Khamenei's negotiators offered no serious compromises to the
P5+1 — the United States and five other Western powers.
The credulous, the
irrationally optimistic, and the reflexive appeasers refuse to
acknowledge that the world's leading sponsor of terrorism is determined
to get its finger on a nuclear trigger. Others understand that Iran's
theocrats will soon have "critical capability" — the means to produce
enough weapons-grade uranium or separated plutonium to make a nuke so
quickly that neither the International Atomic Energy Agency nor any
Western intelligence service would detect it in advance.
During last week's
talks, the Iranians told the P5+1 that they want the economic sanctions
lifted as part of a "confidence-building" process. What Iran would do to
build confidence was left unclear. Iran's chief negotiator, Saeed
Jalili, also demanded recognition of Iran's "right" to enrich uranium.
No such right exists.
On the contrary, by installing advanced centrifuges and enriching
uranium, Iran has violated multiple U.N. Security Council resolutions
requiring that it suspend "all enrichment-related and reprocessing
activities." Iran is in violation of its obligations under the Nuclear
Non-Proliferation Treaty Safeguards Agreement as well.
At the end of the
latest round of talks, even such dovish Western negotiators as Catherine
Ashton, the European Union's foreign policy chief, could see no path to
progress. The two sides, she said, remain "far apart in substance."
(What else is there? Style?) They could not even agree on a date to
resume talks.
Had Iranian negotiators
been willing to set their sights a bit lower, they might have walked
away appearing reasonable — without actually limiting their options. In
the previous round of talks, in February in Almaty, Western diplomats
were reportedly prepared to lift some of the economic pressure in
exchange for Iran curtailing its production of 20%-enriched uranium, and
exporting some of its existing stock. Additional sanctions relief was
contingent on Iran meeting all of its obligations under international
law.
The problem with that
approach from a Western perspective: After pocketing the concessions,
Iran easily could have resumed enriching and accumulating 20% uranium;
then, within a week or two, enriching further — to about 90%,
weapons-grade — which it could, at a time of its own choosing,
clandestinely turn into nuclear devices.
Why didn't the Iranians
strike that bargain? Perhaps because Khamenei has seen North Korea —
its longtime nuclear partner — repeatedly besting the West. After the
Korean War ended in a draw in 1953, North Korean dictators Kim Il Sung
and his son, Kim Jong Il, made fools of a list of American presidents,
using threats to extort benefits. Lil' Kim is now attempting to do the
same. Could Iran's Big Kahuna, heir to the great and glorious Islamic
empires of history, settle for less?
There's also the fact that Khamenei is a man with a plan. "I'm not a diplomat; I'm a revolutionary," he recently said.
I suspect that means he does not intend to play games with those he
regards as mortal enemies. He intends to defeat them — thoroughly and
unambiguously, in negotiations, battles and other encounters.
His confidence needs
shaking. Sanctions should be ratcheted up to the level of economic
warfare — whether or not that term is used. The threat of military force
— which U.S. President Barack Obama has been careful never to "take off
the table" — must be made credible in Khamenei's eyes. At the moment,
it is not.
Time is not on our side. By the estimates of David Albright,
president of the Institute for Science and International Security, and
my colleagues, Orde Kittrie and Mark Dubowitz, "Tehran could reach
critical capability before mid-2014."
At that point, the
North Korean threat will seem like small kimchee in comparison with the
perils posed by an oil-rich state, the world's leading sponsor of
terrorism, intent on spreading its Islamist revolution — and no doubt
proliferating nuclear technology — globally. The moment Iran achieves
"critical capability" is the moment the world of the 21st century
becomes a more dangerous place than most of us can imagine.
Clifford D. May is president of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a policy institute focusing on national security.
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