Haaretz has
reported an Israeli government announcement that negotiations will
resume in Washington on Tuesday. The basis is supposed to be the 1967
lines--presumable with minor border modifications?--and recognition of
Israel by the Palestinian Authority (PA) as a '"Jewish state." The PA
has repeatedly said it would never do so.
It
should be remembered that such talks were conducted between 1991 and
2000 without any actual progress toward a final status solution. They
were
then suspended by the PA for 13 years. In short, this is renewal of a
process which, in its comprehensive goal, failed for 23 years. The last
renewal achieved under U.S, pressure lasted about a week.
No
doubt the renewal of talks will be greeted as a major achievement. It
isn't. If two parties are forced to talka they are unlikely to succeed.
Other motives are present.
Israel
is being pressured by an Obama Administration which it doesn't trust,
under highly threatening regional developments including Iran's
development of nuclear weapons, a pro-Muslim Brotherhood U.S. policy in
Egypt, a revolutionary situation in Syria where the Obama Administration
backs hostile forces (though the forces on the other side are equally
hostile) , and a hostile Turkey also supported by the United States. The
entire Obama Administration foreign policy team is not exactly friendly
toward Israel.
This is not a moment for additional antagonism to be generated.
Israel
is releasing prisoners whose terrorist crimes the Western mass media
don't report and to which the Western political leadership is
indifferent. It is not, however, making other material or diplomatic
concessions. It is unclear, however, whether in the formulation of the
1967 frontiers whether the U.S. government is proposing to keep its
promise to Israel
about retention of settlement blocs. That is a diplomatic ambiguity
that will haunt the U.S. mediators since it will still be disputed
either way.
It
is extremely difficult to believe that the PA is giving up its refusal
to accept Israel as a Jewish State. If it is, the PA will be renounced
as a traitor by Hamas and even other Palestinian groups, including
non-Fatah organizations. The demand for any Palestinians who want to
live in Israel to "return" has also not been dropped.
Indeed,
a few days ago the PA Minister of Religious Affairs Mahmoud al-Habbash
gave a Friday sermon in the presence of
""President" Mahmoud Abbas in which he justified any signed agreement
with Israel, on the ultimate result of the Treaty of Hudaybiyyah. signed
by Muhammad with the Jews in the seventh century. This treaty made
peace for a 10-year truce following which the Muslims attacked the Jews,
killed all the men, and sold the women and children into slavery.
In
a more limited objective, the PA will probably continually increase
its demands, hoping they will either be granted by the Obama
Administration or wreck the talks in a way that will blame Israel,
assured that the Obama Administration will never blame the PA.
That
doesn't seem a good atmosphere for talks. Ignoring this, however, the
Obama Administration should reap a good domestic political profit and
praise.
No comments:
Post a Comment