Doc's Talk: Israeli-Palestinian Diplomacy: Whereto?

Monday, September 30, 2013

Israeli-Palestinian Diplomacy: Whereto?

BESA Center associates in roundtable discussion, from the pages of the BESA Bulletin, October 2013.

Several BESA Center research associates convened recently to fortunes and pitfalls of the newly reignited Israeli-Palestinian diplomatic talks. Among the points of debate: What brought about the talks, after so many years of deadlock, and what kind of agreement is feasible? What should Israel’s red lines be, and what should Israel do if the talks fail? The consensus: An interim accord or unilateral Israeli moves would be a mistake, and would only teach the Palestinians not to compromise.

Why were negotiations re-started now after so many years of deadlock?

Prof. Eytan Gilboa: Several successive American administrations have been obsessive with Israeli-Palestinian peace, believing it is a key for solving all the problems of the Middle East, especially US relations with the Arab and Muslim world. Although, this belief has been wrong from the beginning, part of it still drives US policy. Given the upheavals in the Middle East, the administration believes that an Israeli-Palestinian breakthrough is more important than ever.

Prof. Joshua Teitelbaum: There are important members of Prime Minister Netanyahu’s coalition who seek to push the political process forward: Tzipi Livni’s Hatnua party and Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid party. Netanyahu needs to demonstrate that he is responsive to their concerns. But his actual main goal in these negotiations is to avoid being blamed by the Americans for their failure. For Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas, progress is the only way to stay in power in light of his waning popularity. The release of Palestinian terrorists by Israel is a major achievement for him in these talks. Like Netanyahu, his main goal is to avoid being blamed by the Americans for the failure of the talks.

Prof. Shmuel Sandler: Netanyahu is going through the same syndrome as did Begin, Rabin, Sharon, and Olmert. He wants to stake a place for himself in the chronicles of the Jewish state as a contributor to a peace process.

Dr. Mordechai Kedar: I think that the whole thing is not about the
Palestinians, but about the Iranian nuclear program. Obama, with absolutely no reasonable basis, combines the Israeli-Palestinian issue with the American-Iranian file. I suspect that he said to Netanyahu something like this: “If you want me to take care of the Iranian nuclear problem, you give me something real on the Palestinian issue.” This way Obama can show his face in public as someone who had at least one success in the Mideast, after his failures in Afghanistan, Iraq, Egypt, Syria, and more. Netanyahu seeks to placate Obama, so that Obama has no excuses for failing to deal with Iran. Netanyahu does not believe there is any connection between the two issues, but he has failed in convincing Obama and Kerry to separate between them.

What kind or scope of an agreement is feasible, and what should Israel’s red lines be?

Gilboa: Since Oslo, the Palestinians have demonstrated several times that they are not ready or willing to make peace with Israel. The maximum Israel is prepared to concede doesn’t meet the minimum the Palestinians demand. Thus, the best outcome could be an interim agreement for a period of at least five years. The long term solution should be found within a Jordanian context.

Dr. Jonathan Rynhold: A permanent status agreement is impossible, for known reasons: the internal Palestinian division between Hamas and Fatah, and the large gap between the parties on the core final status issue. This gap is not primarily a function of the Netanyahu government’s positions, because Ehud Olmert was also unable to reach an agreement with Abbas.

Teitelbaum: The best that can be hoped for is a long-term interim agreement (although even achieving that is unlikely). This means a long-term Israeli military presence on the Jordan River, Israeli development of the settlement blocs, and Israeli control over Jerusalem, but does not require Palestinian recognition of Israel as a Jewish state or an end-of-conflict declaration.

Kedar: The only agreement possible is a long-term interim understanding on security and economy. There is no possibility for an accord on the core problems of settlements, borders, Jerusalem, and refugees. Israel should reject any talk of a Palestinian state with territorial contiguity, since such contiguity will enable the PA or Hamas to turn the entire space into a terror state, reaching from Beersheba in the south to Afula in the north.

Dr. Max Singer: There should be no Israeli concessions without a quid pro quo. Israel should insist that Palestinian refugee resettlement be the first issue of discussion, because that is the key to real peace.

Sandler: In light of what is happening in the Arab world, I am not sure that Mahmoud Abbas truly wants an independent Palestinian state.

Prof. Efraim Karsh: The Palestinians never truly wanted the constrained mini-state in the West Bank and Gaza that Israel can give them. They are simply not ready for full peace with Israel that ends all claims, which is why the current round of talks makes little sense. Albert Einstein once said: “Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.”

What alternative diplomatic directions might Israel take?

Teitelbaum: Netanyahu should propose an Israel Peace Initiative that would include and acknowledge the aspects of the Arab Peace Initiative, which Israel views favorably, and there are several of those.

Rynhold: The Palestinians oppose an interim agreement. But if Israel decides to take the initiative and propose a move which involves handing over a significant amount of territory, the international community will adopt it on the basis that something is better than nothing and the Palestinians will not be able to insert a different agenda. If Netanyahu decides to move in this direction it will be because he accepts that Israel has a core long-term strategic interest in partition of the Land of Israel, and that secondarily, demonstrating this commitment will improve Israel’s international standing. However, Netanyahu may feel that the region is simply too volatile right now and that he needs to focus on the Iranian challenge.

Karsh: An interim accord or unilateral Israeli moves would be the worst possible way to proceed. All this teaches the Palestinians is not to compromise, and to simply wait for Israel to tear itself out of the West Bank without real security or any Palestinian concessions.

Prof. Efraim Inbar: In the absence of a partial agreement, which is unlikely due to Palestinian demands, the best option is conflict management.

Kedar: The only real, long-term solution that can be realistically
implemented is what I call the “eight-state solution.” This involves the
establishment of a council of Palestinian “emirates” or mini-states based on the sociology of the different clans and tribes in Gaza, Judea, and Samaria. This will give Arab leadership a firm local base with a traditional and homogenous sociological foundation.

Singer: Israel shouldn’t negotiate terms with itself. Israel should argue
that “occupation” is a choice made by the Palestinians themselves, unless and until they are willing to sue for full peace on reasonable terms. As I say, the first subject to settled has to be “refugees,” because they are the Palestinian weapons for the destruction of Israel.

Gilboa: Israel needs to launch a well-organized global public diplomacy campaign to explain Palestinian inability and unwillingness to sign a peace accord with Israel.

Is time on Israel’s side, or working against Israel?

Teitelbaum: Time is working against Israel, since the lack of a two-state solution undermines Israel’s legitimacy as a Jewish and democratic state. Israel’s legitimacy is a strategic asset. It is getting harder and harder to convince even Israel’s supporters of the legitimacy of expanded Jewish settlement in areas that are still under negotiation for the establishment of a possible Palestinian state.

Inbar: Time is on Israel’s side. Israel is not nearly as isolated as the
Left claims. The power differential between Israel and its regional
adversaries is growing in military and economic terms. In addition, Israeli society has evinced great resilience, as it understands that the
Palestinians are responsible for the stalemate. The threat of

international isolation and declining legitimacy is grossly overstated, purposefully so by Israel’s Left for political reasons.

Kedar: Time is definitely on Israel’s side for many reasons. The Palestinian refugee issue is dissipating. More than 350,000 Palestinian refugees already have fled Syria to Jordan, Lebanon, Turkey, Egypt, and many other states, and will not return to Syria in the foreseeable future. Therefore they do not exist anymore as a group. Many of the 400,000 refugees in Lebanon may yet flee too to other countries. This weakens the Palestinian demand for “right of return,” since the two big refugee groups are disintegrating.
Every refugee will solve his own problem wherever he will be. Furthermore, Arab states are too busy with their own problems, and they already abandoned the Palestinian issue. Thirdly, the Arab world is losing its ability to maintain pressure on Israel or threaten her, since the most radical anti-Israeli actors have been weakened by the war in Syria.

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IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis
Website: www.imra.org.il

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The IDF’s Minorities in Numbers and Pictures

In honor of IDF Diversity Week, we present diversity through numbers and pictures. Each year, more and more Muslims, Christians, Druze, Bedouin and immigrants from around the world take on the responsibility of defending Israel.

MUSLIMS:

Muslim Arab Israelis are not required to draft in the IDF, but there are many who volunteer. In 2013, there were over 200 Muslims serving in the IDF and over 300 in the reserves.

Bedouins:

Bedouins are nomadic Muslims who were in Israel when modern borders were set in place and are now considered Israeli citizens. They are not required to draft but a growing number choose to enlist. In 2012, there were over 1,400 Bedouin Muslim soldiers doing regular IDF service and almost 1,500 in the reserves.

Read more:http://www.idfblog.com/2014/02/27/truth-idf-numbers-pictures/#more-34027

Are you aware that in 2013, Middle class taxes go up-significantly?

In January of next year, the federal income tax rate for middle-class taxpayers is scheduled to rise from 25 percent to 28 percent, and the payroll tax is scheduled to rise from 13.3 percent to 15.3 percent… This drives the marginal tax rate based on the aforementioned three taxes to 48.12 percent. Add in state and local property, corporate, excise, and other state and local taxes, and the percentage of each additional dollar that is taxed hovers around 50 percent… When half of each additional dollar earned is taxed away, taxpayers experience a disincentive to start businesses or expand existing ones. This leads to fewer jobs being created.

Why is HAMAS Inside Tampa Schools?

Clare Lopez

Kelly Miliziano, who teaches history classes at Steinbrenner High School in the Tampa, Florida area apparently thinks it’s perfectly OK to invite a senior official of a HAMAS-affiliated organization into her classroom to discuss Islam with her students. According to local media reports, not only has this been going on for years, but in spite of the civil and criminal proceedings that could result from such reckless negligence, the Hillsborough County school superintendent, Mary Ellen Elia, and the chairman of the school board, Candy Olson, also expressed approval for students under their responsibility to be exposed repeatedly to guest speaker, Hassan Shibly, who is the Executive Director for the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) in the Tampa area.
More...

Did You Know... Ignoring the Call to Islam will Bring Jihad

‘Conquest through Da’wa [proselytizing] that is what we hope for. We will conquer Europe, we will conquer America! Not through sword but through Da’wa.’
-- Yousef al-Qaradawi , Muslim Brotherhood spiritual leader The Arabic word ‘Da’wa’ means the “call to Islam.” But do not think that Da’wa is the same thing as an invitation to an optional holiday event. The classical Islamic doctrine of jihad mandates that enemies must be given the opportunity to convert to Islam or pay the jizya tax before it is permissible to attack them.
Clare M. Lopez

Who is being discriminated-facts tell the truth

Religious bias

Hate crimes motivated by religious bias accounted for 1,409 offenses reported by law enforcement. A breakdown of the bias motivation of religious-bias offenses showed:

65.4 percent were anti-Jewish.
13.2 percent were anti-Islamic.
9.5 percent were anti-other religion, i.e., those not specified.
4.3 percent were anti-Catholic.
3.8 percent were anti-multiple religions, group.
3.3 percent were anti-Protestant.
0.5 percent were anti-Atheism/Agnosticism/etc.

http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/hate-crime/2010/narratives/hate-crime-2010-incidents-and-offenses.

On March 31, 1977, the Dutch newspaper Trouw published an interview

with PLO executive committee member Zahir Muhsein. Here's what he said:

"The Palestinian people does not exist. The creation of a Palestinian state is only a means for continuing our struggle against the state of Israel for our Arab unity. In reality today there is no difference between Jordanians, Palestinians, Syrians and Lebanese. Only for political and tactical reasons do we speak today about the existence of a Palestinian people, since Arab national interests demand that we posit the existence of a distinct "Palestinian people" to oppose Zionism.

For tactical reasons, Jordan, which is a sovereign state with defined borders, cannot raise claims to Haifa and Jaffa, while as a Palestinian, I can undoubtedly demand Haifa, Jaffa, Beer-Sheva and Jerusalem. However, the moment we reclaim our right to all of Palestine, we will not wait even a minute to unite Palestine and Jordan."

In March 1977, Zahir Muhsein, a PLO executive, said:

"The Palestinian people does not exist. The creation of a Palestinian state is only a means for continuing our struggle against the state of Israel for our Arab unity. In reality today there is no difference between Jordanians, Palestinians, Syrians and Lebanese. Only for political and tactical reasons do we speak today about the existence of a Palestinian people, since Arab national interests demand that we posit the existence of a distinct Palestinian people to oppose Zionism."

"For tactical reasons, Jordan, which is a sovereign state with defined borders, cannot raise claims to Haifa and Jaffa, while as a Palestinian, I can undoubtedly demand Haifa, Jaffa, Beer-Sheva and Jerusalem. However, the moment we reclaim our right to all of Palestine, we will not wait even a minute to unite Palestine and Jordan."

The Arab Apartheid

Ben-Dror Yemini
In 1948, the Arab countries refused to accept the UN partition proposal and they launched a war of annihilation against the State of Israel which had barely been established. All precedents in this matter showed that the party that starts the war - and with a declaration of annihilation, yet - pays a price for it. Between 550,000 and 710,000 Arabs fled because of the war and a larger number of 850,000 Jews were expelled or fled from Arab countries (the "Jewish nakba").
Population exchanges and expulsions were the norm at that time, occurring in dozens of other conflict points and affecting about 52 million people. In all the population exchange precedents that occurred during or at the end of an armed conflict, there was no return of refugees to the previous region, which had turned into a new national state.
Only the Arab states acted completely differently from the rest of the world. Instead of assimilating the refugees, they crushed them despite the fact that they were their coreligionists and members of the Arab nation - instituting a regime of apartheid. So the "nakba" was not caused by the actual dispossession, which had also been experienced by tens of millions of others. The "nakba" is the story of the apartheid, oppression, abuse and denial of rights suffered by the Arab refugees at the hands of the Arab countries. (Maariv)

International Law and Military Operations in Practice - Col. Richard Kemp

"Islamist fighting groups study the international laws of armed conflict carefully and they understand it well. They know that a British or Israeli commander and his men are bound by international law and the rules of engagement that flow from it. They then do their utmost to exploit what they view as one of their enemy's main weaknesses. Their very modus operandi is built on the correct assumption that Western armies will normally abide by the rules, while these insurgents employ a deliberate policy of operating consistently outside international law. "

Lost Historical Moments

What Rabin’s last Knesset speech really said:repudiation of a Palestinian state

Rabin ruled out a fully sovereign Palestinian state :

“We view the permanent solution in the framework of State of Israel which will include most of the area of the Land of Israel as it was under the rule of the British Mandate, and alongside it a Palestinian entity which will be a home to most of the Palestinian residents living in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank. We would like this to be an entity which is less than a state, and which will independently run the lives of the Palestinians under its authority.”

Rabin ruled out a total withdrawal from Judea and Samaria and thus a return to the pre-June 1967 borders :

“The borders of the State of Israel, during the permanent solution, will be beyond the lines which existed before the Six Day War. We will not return to the 4 June 1967 lines.”

Rabin ruled out withdrawing form the Jordan Valley:

“The security border of the State of Israel will be located in the Jordan Valley, in the broadest meaning of that term.”

Rabin ruled out uprooting settlement blocs, like the Gush Katif bloc in Gaza (which was subsequently uprooted by former Prime Minister Ariel Sharon):

“The establishment of blocs of settlements in Judea and Samaria, like the one in Gush Katif.

AND

Rabin ruled out removing any settlement before coming to a full peace agreement with the Palestinians:

“I want to remind you: we committed ourselves, that is, we came to an agreement, and committed ourselves before the Knesset, not to uproot a single settlement in the framework of the interim agreement, and not to hinder building for natural growth.”

Rabin insisted on Israel retaining full security control of the borders with Egypt and Jordan, contrary to Israel’s relinquishment of the Philadelphia Corridor on the border with Egypt:

“The responsibility for external security along the borders with Egypt and Jordan, as well as control over the airspace above all of the territories and Gaza Strip maritime zone, remains in our hands.”

Correcting Oslo Myths-Part 2

3) Kuttab laments that the post-1993 Oslo process resulted in a Palestinian Authority "whose ministers and legislators are not guaranteed passage between Gaza and the West Bank ...."

Before free passage or other perquisites, PA leaders were obligated, among other things, to eliminate the terrorist infrastructure in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, end anti-Israeli, antisemitic incitement in schools, mosques, and communications media, and resolve all outstanding issues through peaceful negotiations. They met none of these commitments, sometimes bolstering terrorism and greatly increasing incitement.

4) Kuttab complains that under Oslo the PA got "lightly armed police ---- but no real sovereignty over the land or contiguity between our communities in Gaza and the West Bank."

Oslo agreements repeatedly were revised, regardless of Palestinian non-compliance, until the authorized number of police grew from 8,000 to 40,000. Though they were to be the only armed forces in the territories, Israeli estimates early in the second intifada put the number of gunmen - police, "security services," terrorists, and armed gangs - at 85,000. Their armament reportedly included not only heavy machine guns and rocket-propelled grenades, but also anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles.

Sovereignty was to be negotiated in the envisioned 1998 "final status" talks - after a five-year period of confidence-building. Palestinian leadership chronically undermined the process. Palestinian terrorism made the 1993 - 1998 Oslo period more deadly for Israelis than the 15 years preceding it.

The United States doesn't have contiguity between the lower 48 states and Alaska and Hawaii; territorial contiguity between the West Bank and Gaza Strip - that is, through the 20 miles of Israeli territory between them - was never promised and would destroy Israeli contiguity.

5) "Palestinians have been made to endure hundreds of checkpoints in the West Bank, an eight-foot wall deep in our territories, and tight Israeli control over borders."

The security barrier is not "deep in Palestinian territories," but rather encompasses less than 8 percent of Judea and Samaria, and is mostly a fence, rarely a wall; the land in question is not "our [Palestinian] territories" but disputed territory to which, according to the authors of U.N. Security Council Resolution 242, Jews as well as Arabs have claims; and there are no international borders, only the 1949 armistice lines with Jordan. Under 242, borders remain to be negotiated. As for checkpoints - like the security barrier and "tight Israeli control" - Palestinian Arabs precipitated these measures themselves. No terrorism and there would be no fence or tight Israeli control and few checkpoints - like before the first intifada.

Correcting Some Oslo Myths

1) In Oslo "Israeli, Palestinian and other world leaders promised that ... Palestinian sovereignty would be solidified."

No, they didn't. The 1993 Declaration of Principles and subsequent Oslo agreements outlined a process by which final status negotiations about the West Bank and Gaza Strip would be reached. The process required an end to anti-Israel terrorism and incitement and a commitment to peaceful negotiations. The PA, Fatah, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, and other terrorist groups, sabotaged the process from the start.

2) "The reality is that, in defiance of U.N. Security Council Resolution 242, which states that it is inadmissible to occupy land by force, Palestinian territories are still under foreign military occupation."
Wrong again. Resolution 242 (1967) does note "the inadmissibility of the acquisition of territory by war." It also affirms the right of every state in the area "to live in peace with secure and recognized boundaries free from threats or acts of force." There were no "Palestinian territories." Jordan occupied the West Bank, Egypt controlled Gaza. Israel did not have "secure and recognized boundaries," so retention of some of those territories was possible under 242. Israel is not a "foreign" military occupier in the West Bank but, pending final negotiations, the lawful military administrator as a result of a successful war of self-defense.

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