It is hard to ignore
this week's Wall Street Journal report that Iran is prepared to stop
enriching uranium for military purposes, particularly amid the backdrop
of the historic Obama-Rouhani phone conversation two weeks ago. Indeed,
after 34 years of Khomeini ideology, during which the Iranian regime
severed all ties with the United States, the phone call was extremely
important. Following the call, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sensed
that the West's policy toward Iran, which he had devoted so much work to
over the years, was slipping away and crumbling at Israel's feet.
It is important to
first examine the American interest behind speaking with Iran's
president. The U.S. understood that the policy it had conducted and
sought in the Middle East was not up to date, foolish even. The rise of
Russia on America's broken back, fostered by the crisis in Syria (and
following U.S. crises in Iraq and Afghanistan), caused the Americans to
understand that if Russia (and China) support the actions of the Syrian
regime and serve as its financial, military and political patrons, what
would then happen if and when the U.S. needs to threaten Iran with a
military strike as it did against Syria?
Iran, for its part,
identified the American weakness, and it perceives the mere existence of
holding the phone conversation as an act of bravery stemming from a
place of strength and prestige. It cannot be argued that the
Revolutionary Guard condemned the renewed communication with the U.S.
because it was concerned about losing control of certain market
monopolies it had seized due to the economic sanctions. Other elements
inside Iran, like Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, saw the phone
call as unnecessary and inappropriate. Either way, it is certain that
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei wholeheartedly supported it.
But will this phone
call kick start a process whereby Iran will sit at the negotiation table
to discuss its nuclear program, and in exchange the West will ease the
burden of the economic sanctions it has imposed? There are several
insights to this question. Firstly, the sanctions are indeed working and
making an influence, specifically on the nuclear issue. The Iranian
people do not lack for medicine or basic products -- and while the
quality may be Chinese and Korean, at the end of the day no one is dying
of starvation. Secondly, it can be assumed that Iran has enough
enriched uranium to build a bomb. The removal of sanctions will only be
the wrapping on the West's gift to Iran, and Iran's nuclear bomb will be
the present itself. Thirdly, Iranian President Hasan Rouhani, along
with the rest of the regime's leaders, are making a mockery of the
American administration and stalling for more time, just as they did in
the past and will continue to do in the future.
The West is forgetting
one thing: More than any other politician in Iran, Rouhani is recognized
as the most uncompromising figure in regards to acquiring nuclear
capabilities. It is enough to leaf through the dozens of books and
articles he has written and peruse the regime's official websites.
The Geneva talks
between Iran and the six world powers will be devoid of content, because
the Iran of today will never relinquish its right to go nuclear. Twenty
percent more or less -- Iran has over 20 nuclear facilities operating
at varying levels of production. The entire purpose of this process is
to buy more time and to create a false impression of coming closer to
the West. Meanwhile, Iran -- simultaneous to the negotiations, the
removal of sanctions and the supposed supervision of its nuclear sites
-- will continue, with the international approval of the six world
powers, to do what it has been doing for many years: strive toward
nuclear capability, civilian and military.
The writer is a lecturer at the Department
of Middle Eastern & Israel Studies/Political Science and research
associate at the Middle East Research Center at Ariel University. 
No comments:
Post a Comment