But of course! How could the
situation be anything but?
This morning's lead story in the
JPost included this (emphasis added):
"Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu
will go into his meeting with US President Barack Obama on Monday aiming not
only to reveal the 'true face' of the Iranian regime, but also wanting to hear a
reaffirmation from Obama of Israel's right to defend
itself.
"One of Israel's main concerns
presently is that Iranian President Hasan Rouhani's 'charm offensive' has
chipped away at Israel's legitimacy for military action if
Tehran crosses the red line Netanyahu established at the General Assembly last
year."
My immediate response to this was
enormous indignation. Of course we have the right to defend ourselves. We
need no one's permission to do so. Every sovereign state has the right of
self-defense.
This article reflects a very
different tone from what I reported yesterday: "Netanyahu will tell
US President Barack Obama that Israel will abandon the diplomatic path on Iran's
nuclear program [i.e., take unilateral military action] if it is not completely
dismantled."
Was it Netanyahu's intention
to tell Obama what we might need to do? Or to ask
permission?
~~~~~~~~~~
This circles back on the
discussion I had in my last post about how there are times that Netanyahu has
difficulty in bucking what Obama demands. In this case he
might demand that there be no military action because this would
interfere with his "diplomatic" outreach to Iran. Hey! He and Rouhani are
practically best friends already.
If Obama were to make this demand,
does this mean Netanyahu would have to listen? On the contrary, this is
one of those occasions on which he MUST do what is right for Israel. But
it is also one of those occasions that might require enormous strength and
fortitude from him. And I can see the possibility of his stalling -
whatever the bravery of his words - when it is past time for
stalling.
Far better to clear matters away
first, if it is possible. Otherwise there might be not only penalties of
various sorts, but interference with our attempts to defend
ourselves.
~~~~~~~~~~
The on-going theme being put out
by Kerry remains unsettling, as well. He is going to make demands - real
demands - of Iran, he keeps telling us. But then he provides examples of some of
the things he'd like to see now for Iran to show its seriousness, and they fall
short of what is truly needed:
"They could immediately open for
inspection the Fordo facility, they could immediately sign the protocol of the
international community regarding inspections, they could offer to cease
voluntarily to take enrichment above a certain level."
Once again: they need to
close Fordo, and stop enriching all
together. Will the US accept half-way measures and call it
victory? This is precisely what I fear, and this would be a situation
that makes it doubly difficult for Netanyahu.
~~~~~~~~~~
Netanyahu, we've been told,
brought with him into his meeting with Obama information on an Iranian
agent who was captured here in Israel. A Belgian citizen of Iranian
origins, Ali Mansouri is suspected by the Shin Bet of having been recruited by
the Quds Force of Iran, which is a unit of the Revolutionary Guards that
oversees "special operations, terrorism and subversion" outside of Iran. A
businessman, he was in Israel to attempt to set up a business network that would
provide "a covert base of operations for the Iranian regime to act against
Israel and Western interests."
Mansouri, who was reportedly paid
$1 million for his activities, answered to the Quds Force, which in turn answers
to the notorious Qassem Suleimani.
Netanyahu was eager to provide
information to the president on precisely how Iran is operating even as its
leaders profess eagerness for warm relations. Mansouri, when arrested, was
carrying photographs of Ben Gurion Airport and the US Embassy. The latter should
make Obama sit upright: the US is not exempt from Iranian
machinations and it's imperative for him to realize
it.
~~~~~~~~~~
The scuttlebutt, across the board,
has been that this is going to be a time of greatly heightened tensions
between Netanyahu and Obama - with a reappearance of the personal animosities we
had seen earlier, and which had been, at least superficially, smoothed
over. The goals of the two leaders were seen to be simply at odds,
with frictions in the personalities as well.
But none of this was apparent on
the surface today, with regard to the meeting between Netanyahu and
Obama. The prime minister was well prepared going in, as he was
prepped by a team that included some very good people, e.g., Ya'akov Amidror,
outgoing head of the National Security Council and Ron Dermer, new incoming
Israeli Ambassador to Israel.
Credit: Majalla
~~~~~~~~~~
A close look at their words
would certainly reveal gaps between the two. And we must
remember that what was of import - especially with regard to differences -
was said behind closed doors. But public words were all cordial and I do
not believe the atmosphere was negatively charged. Matters seemed smoother
than might have been expected.
Obama said that he would not be
taking Iranian leaders at their words and would demand action: "specifically a
reduction in the level of uranium enrichment as demanded by the international
community, and that can be verified." (Yup, that again, still.)
Netanyahu said, after the meeting,
that he appreciated Obama's position on Iran. He does? Well, Obama did say
he wasn't ruling out the military option. Anyone believe that?
Netanyahu is no one's fool.
~~~~~~~~~~
Perhaps, however, what is serious
is that Obama did concur that Israel needed to keep that military option on the
table.
This is the conclusion that we
must draw from the fact that, while still sitting next to Obama,
Netanyahu declared for the press that if serious action isn't forthcoming from
Iran, Israel reserves the right to wage a unilateral military campaign against
Iran's nuclear facilities. I am not hearing that Obama offered a
recognition of Israel's right of self-defense, but that does not matter.
What matters is that our own prime minister made that right clear.
Netanyahu's position remains that
Iran must fully dismantle its nuclear program. Half-way
measures will not cut it for him.
~~~~~~~~~~
We do not know exactly how much
Netanyahu impressed Obama with his evidence of Iranian intransigence. But
we can speculate.
According to Israel National News
(above), "Netanyahu also presented Obama with the key points he intends to make
in his speech to the UN General Assembly on Tuesday. Among other things,
Netanyahu is expected to say that he does not rule out diplomatic dialogue with
the new Iranian President, provided that the talks will establish real
results."
This is a concession to
Obama. Netanyahu knows full well that diplomatic dialogue with Iran will
never establish real results.
~~~~~~~~~~
There is one other significant
point in the follow-up to the leaders' meeting: Obama praised Netanyahu's
willingness to engage in the negotiations with the PA.
Uh oh.
Here's more scuttlebutt: In
reality, there is no connection between the threat of a nuclear Iran and
our negotiations with the PA. But Obama keeps finding ways to draw
connections. There is fear in some quarters that Netanyahu may give on what he
is willing to concede to the PA, in return for Obama taking a stronger stance on
Iran.
I keep picking up rumors about
something coming down the road - some proposal from the prime minister regarding
an interim state. There is an enormous amount of action going on, under
the surface, in government and Knesset circles, in order to prevent this
from happening.
Yesterday, Deputy Defense Minister
Danny Danon convened a meeting with heads of nationalist groups inside the Likud
Central Committee to strategize on this issue. Danon made the point that
this was not "anti-Netanyahu," but rather was intended to apply counter-pressure
to the great pressure Netanyahu was undoubtedly encountering in the US.
The group focused on a critique of Tzipi Livni, head of the negotiating team,
who just spoke at a J-Street conference. Deplorable.
Credit:
JPost
~~~~~~~~~~
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Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by Arlene Kushner,
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