Critics: White House Middle East approach torn between inaction and de facto Iran alignment
Turkish political warfare expands with anti-terror raids targeting Erdogan-linked group
Voters signal overwhelming support for new, relatively secular Egyptian constitution
WaPo: Syria on brink of humanitarian catastrophe, pictures show starving children and elderly people
What we’re watching today:
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The erosion of American influence in the Middle East has created power vacuums which are being filled by
geopolitical rivals from across the region, forcing Washington’s allies
to "take matters into their own hands," according to analysis published
Wednesday in the New York Times. Michael Doran and Max Boot -
senior fellows at the Brookings Institution and the Council on Foreign
Relations respectively - described Sunni-Shiite polarization in Lebanon,
Syria, and Iraq as a function of the U.S. "refraining from countering
Iranian machinations" in those countries. Fighting from Syria's nearly
three year old conflict has spilled over into the neighboring two
countries, with Sunni elements - ranging from secularists to Salafists -
aligning themselves against Iran and its proxies. Lebanon in particular
has been destabilized by Hezbollah's participation in the Syrian
conflict, which has in turn generated blowback in
the form of jihadist retaliation on Lebanese soil. The Iran-backed
terror group has also been central in preventing the formation of a
Lebanese cabinet, leaving the country to be run by
a weakened interim government. Meanwhile critics of the Obama
administration's approach to the region have also been growing more
vocal in characterizing the White House's approach - when it does orient
itself robustly - as one of de facto alignment with Iran. Tony Badran, a
research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, last week blasted the
administration for what he described as "increasingly obvious"
partnership with Tehran and Hezbollah. Badran outlined a messaging
campaign being conducted by the Iranians designed to "isolate Riyadh
while playing up the emerging US alignment with Iran across the region,"
and worried that the "proposition... seems to enjoy support in the US
media and policy circles."
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A now-familiar pattern of
judiciary action followed by anti-judiciary purges - which has in recent
weeks marked the open political warfare being waged by rival Islamist
camps inside Turkey - expanded this week as police forces raided the
headquarters of the Turkish Humanitarian Relief Foundation (IHH), a
group with close ties to the Justice and Development Party (AKP) of
Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The moves were the latest
in a series of attacks and counterattacks, pitting figures linked to
U.S.-based cleric Fethullah Gulen on one side and the AKP and its
supporters on the other. Last December Gulenist officials inside
Turkey's judiciary launched and then widened a series of anti-corruption
probes targeting AKP elites, and the AKP subsequently responded with mass purges of
police officers involved in those probes. Turkish media reported that,
true to form, two anti-terror police unit chiefs involved in this week's
anti-terror raids on the IHH and on the Al Qaeda-linked groups were dismissed in the raids' aftermath. The incident is, however, already being read beyond
the political battles between the AKP and the Gulenist movement. The
IHH’s close ties to Ankara’s AKP government have the potential to deepen growing concerns that
AKP figures are permitting Turkish territory and even assets to be used
to promote terrorism. The IHH, which has been designated as a terrorist
entity by Amsterdam and Berlin,
was the central player in the 2010 naval "flotilla" effort to break
Israel's naval blockade of the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip. Israeli
commandos intercepted a vessel sailed by IHH members and were attacked
by those on board. Nine people died in the ensuing fighting, which
escalated into an international incident and largely collapsed
already-fraying Israeli-Turkish ties. The Israelis claimed that the IHH
is entangled in terror activities, and that the flotilla was not meant
to be peaceful. Turkish officials and some analysts abroad argued the
opposite.
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A referendum asking Egyptians to approve the country's new constitution has passed overwhelmingly, with Reuters reporting late on Wednesday that official figures had roughly ninety percent of voters pulling the lever in favor. Though exact figures regarding the turnout and the integrity of
the balloting were disputed, the vote was widely seen as Egypt's latest
step along a path that seeks to eventually have the country returned to
democratic governance. In July 2013 the Egyptian military responded to
massive anti-government protests by removing from power the Muslim
Brotherhood linked government of then-president Mohammed Morsi, and a
subsequent army-backed interim government has been ruling since. Morsi's
Brotherhood-linked government had during its one-year tenure secured
the drafting and passage of a controversial constitution that
was criticized both domestically and internationally for prioritizing
Islamic law at the expense of protections for women, religious
minorities, and others. English-language Egyptian media outlet Al
Arabiya pointedly quoted a
Coptic Christian contrasting Brotherhood rule, which had the Islamist
organization seeking to "divide" Egyptians, with the new
post-Brotherhood constitution, which "clearly states that Christians and
Muslims are equal, and so are men and women." The Brotherhood
officially boycotted this week’s referendum and outbreaks of violence -
including what appeared to be the systematic intimidation of Christians - undermined turnout.
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The Washington
Post reported earlier this week that images smuggled out of a
Palestinian refugee camp in Syria show "disturbing images of emaciated
children and elderly people" and indicate that there
are thousands of residents in the Yarmouk camp at risk of starvation,
the result of a siege being maintained by Syria's Bashar al-Assad regime
and its Iranian backers. The Post outlined sieges being
conducted against "numerous rebel-held neighborhoods, notably in the
suburbs of Damascus," with forces loyal to the regime - drawn from the
Syrian army, from Iran, and from Iran’s Lebanese terror proxy Hezbollah –
refusing to allow food or medicine to reach residents. The tactic is
also being used elsewhere in the country against areas controlled by
regime opponents. Last week, dozens of men attempting to break the siege
of Homs were attacked and killed. The United Nations had already reported weeks ago that it has literally stopped trying to count how
many people have died in the nearly three year conflict, though the
organization's secretary general Ban Ki-moon added this week that an
estimated 9.3 million people - half of Syria's population - are in immediate need of
humanitarian assistance. The Geneva II peace talks scheduled to start
in Switzerland on January 22nd will seek to at least dampen the
violence, though efforts to secure a lull in the fighting as the
conference approaches have had little effect. Fighting
between the government and the rebels are ongoing, as is fighting
between various opposition factions. Earlier this month fighting between
rebel groups killed roughly 500 people in one week.
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