The news broke yesterday that
Likud, headed by Binyamin Netanyahu, and Yisrael Beitenu, headed Avigdor
Lieberman, who is currently foreign minister, have decided to run together in
the election, with a joint list.
Credit:
guardian
The logic is obvious: After
the election, the party that has garnered the most mandates (seats in the
Knesset) will be asked by the president to form a coalition (a number of parties
that together have 61 or more mandates), which will constitute the new
government.
There has been considerable talk
on the left/center about a joint party -- possibly including Tzipi Livni,
formerly head of Kadima; Shaul Mofaz, who currently heads Kadima; Haim
Ramon, who had jumped from Labor to Kadima and then quit Kadima;
Yair Lapid, who is supposed to be forming the new party Yesh
Atid; even Ehud Olmert of Kadima (although this is now unlikely)
-- Shelley Yacimovich, how head of Labor, may have been in on that as
well. The notion was that this new party would garner more seats than
Likud, thus pushing out Netanyahu.
That prospect has not
materialized -- although talk of it will now be reinvigorated -- but Netanyahu
pre-empted them on this. As savvy a politician as exists here currently, he was
not about to sit and wait to see what would happen. What we learn now is
that this plan with Lieberman has been in the works for two months.
~~~~~~~~~~
If Likud and Yisrael Beitenu each
retain their current number of seats, then this merger would bring in a
combination of 42 seats, which is considered to be probably unbeatable by any
combination of left/center parties.
The number may be lower, as some
in favor of Likud might be turned off by Yisrael Beitenu and vice versa.
But there is also the possibility that it could be higher (as much as 51
according to one poll).
~~~~~~~~~~
Lieberman is something of a wild
card. He often speaks with an honesty that is unusual for politicians, and
I have repeatedly praised him for this. He says bluntly that there will be no
peace agreement in light of how the PA is conducting itself, and pretending to
pursue it now is silly.
But on occasion he comes forward
with something that is slightly off the wall, or that marks him as lacking in
diplomatic skill. He is not a far right crazy, which is how the left
seeks to have him seen. That he tilts right and will have
considerable influence on the new government is a good thing, from where I
sit.
~~~~~~~~~~
It has been made clear that
Netanyahu will still be in charge. He will be number one on the list and
would again become prime minister if his joint party won. Lieberman will
be second on the list. Following this will be two members of Likud, two members
of Yisrael Beitenu, and on from there. Much will come clear in the days
and weeks ahead.
~~~~~~~~~~
In passing let me note something
that, with everything else happening, I let slip by: Habayit Hayehudi
and National Union, both nationalist parties, have also achieved a merger
of sorts, although that merger is incomplete (with one faction of National Union
withdrawing). I see this a positive, as their clout will increase as a
coalition is formed.
~~~~~~~~~~
An additional gain for the country
can be seen in this recent move towards larger merged parties. Too
often the successful formation of a coalition has depended upon several small
splinter parties that have made demands beyond what would be reasonable for
their numbers. This would render such a situation less
likely.
~~~~~~~~~~
But I would like to turn from this
to a completely different and potentially quite important issue:
According to Sudanese claims --
which seem to have been confirmed -- there was an attack from the air on its
Yarmouk military complex near Khartoum at midnight Tuesday.
The target of this attack is understood to have been a munitions
factory.
Sudan has accused Israel of
initiating the attack. Israel has had no comment regarding the
attack.
However, what Israel
has called to light in recent days is Sudan's role in terrorism and its
relationship to Iran. Amos Gilad, director of policy and
political-military affairs for the Ministry of Defense, told Army Radio
that:
"We need to understand exactly
what happened there, but the role of Sudan is clear: It is a dangerous
terrorist state."
~~~~~~~~~~
The JPost on Friday cited
the Shin Bet as saying that "Sudan is the central crossroads in a major
weapons smuggling route from Iran that passes through Egypt and the Sinai
Peninsula and from there on to the Gaza Strip."
According to Yaakov Lappin, citing
open sources, "...officials from
the Iranian Revolutionary Guard have loaded long-range rockets and an array of
sophisticated missiles onto ships at Iran's Port Bandar Abbas, from where ships
have sailed to Sudan. From there the weapons travel in land convoys into
Egypt, and are then smuggled into Gaza via tunnels from Sinai."
On more than one occasion, land
convoys in eastern Sudan believed to have been carrying Iranian weapons have
been intercepted by air; these attacks are presumed to have been initiated
by Israel.
Speculation is that Iran " may well have decided to construct a rocket
factory in the Sudanese capital, shortening the distance between the
arms' manufacturing center and their target
destination."
~~~~~~~~~~
The implications of the bombing of
the Sudanese munitions factory, if it was carried out by Israel, are
several. First, and most obviously, a supply of weapons intended for
launching at Israeli civilians has been destroyed.
But beyond this
are the messages imparted to Iran. There is the evidence of
Israel's readiness to interfere, even in distant places, with Iran's efforts to
foment terrorism against Israel. And then, what is worthy of note is
that Khartoum is roughly the same distance from Israel -- 1,900 kilometers -- as
Iran is, at 1,600 kilometers away . Iran would not have missed the
implications here regarding Israel's long range jet
capabilities.
For more on this
issue:
~~~~~~~~~~
I cannot move on from the issue of
Iran without noting that:
"Intelligence officials from
several countries say Iran in recent weeks has virtually completed an
underground nuclear enrichment plant. The installation of the last of nearly
3,000 centrifuges at Fordo, deep under a mountain near Qum, puts Iran closer to
being able to build a nuclear weapon.
"Iran's progress was disclosed by officials familiar with the findings of inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency who have been to the site recently. While the plant is not yet fully running - fewer than half of all its centrifuges are spinning out enriched uranium - Iran could have it doing so within months, officials say."
~~~~~~~~~~
No so many days ago, the
NYTimes ran an article about an understanding between Obama and
the Iranians to hold one-on-one talks after the election. This was
promptly denied by Obama.
But Dore Gold now has an
explanation about how there may be some talks going on that provide Obama with
deniability: Back channel talks, which are not official.
~~~~~~~~~~
In passing: A week ago, the ship
called the Estelle, which set sail with the intention of breaking the
sea blockade of Gaza, was stopped by the Israeli navy. When calls to
the ship to cooperate and change course were ignored, the ship was boarded -- it
was done peacefully and without incident. The ship was rerouted
to Ashdod port and those aboard were handled by immigration
authorities.
PM Netanyahu stated at the time
that, "Their entire objective was to create a provocation and blacken Israel’s
name. If human rights were really important to these activists, they would sail
to Syria."
As I understand it, no
humanitarian supplies were found on board, delivery of such supplies not being
the genuine intention of those on the ship.
~~~~~~~~~~
A typo that from my last
post: I dropped some zeroes when I wrote that the Emir of Qatar had
brought Hamas $400,000. That's mere chicken feed. His gift totaled $400
million. (Thanks Bennet R.)
~~~~~~~~~~
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Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by Arlene Kushner,
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