Debate exposed an obvious fear
John Podhoretz
It
was not surprising that President Obama took the opportunity to say
kind things about Israel during Monday’s debate — which after all was
held in Boca Raton, the Mecca (if you will) of Jewish retirement
communities.
It was surprising
that he brought up Israel a second time. And a third. And a fourth. And
a fifth. Indeed, he brought up Israel so often, you might have thought
he actually liked the place.
How he really feels about Israel isn’t the point. The point is the president wants people in the United States to think he likes it. He wants them to think it very much. Very, very, very much.
He
wants them to think he believes Israel is “our greatest ally in the
region” when only a few months ago he had described it merely as “one of
our allies in the region.” He wants them to think he’s responsible for
“unprecedented military and intelligence cooperation” with Israel when
in fact he’s merely continued his predecessor’s policies.
He
wanted to let them know Israel and the United States are going to be
engaging any day now in the largest joint military exercise ever—which
led the Obamaphilic but puckish journalist Jeffrey Goldberg to tweet,
“What a coincidence that the joint Israel-US exercise is taking place
this very week.”
The
president mentioned Israel, or brought Israel up in other contexts, 11
times during the debate. He didn’t mention Europe, which is in a spot of
bother. He didn’t mention North Korea, which you’ll remember once
seemed to be a big deal. He didn’t mention Japan.
No, this small country was, along with Iran and China and Libya, the most dominant topic.
Obama’s
determination to make the case that he is Israel’s closest pal is the
most potent sign yet that something significant — and potentially
threatening to Obama’s re-election hopes — is going on inside the
American Jewish community.
There’s
been an ongoing question about the electoral and political effect of
the president’s highly combative relationship with premier Benjamin
Netanyahu and his cold handling of the country Netanyahu leads.
It
appears certain that the president will get the lowest share of the
Jewish vote for a Democrat since Jimmy Carter in 1980. Oh, he’ll still
win the Jewish vote in a landslide. Surveys of the Jewish community,
especially one by the American Jewish Committee, suggest Obama is in the
65 percent range (which would be a 20 percent drop from his 2008
level).
But that poll was taken over the course of two weeks in September, before Mitt Romney’s candidacy began its surge.
More
important, judging from the president’s conduct on Tuesday night, his
campaign doesn’t believe it has that kind of hold on the Jewish vote.
That could matter in three key states.
First,
and most obviously, Florida — which most observers seem to think Romney
will end up winning but which the president clearly hasn’t given up on
yet.
But
also Ohio, which has 150,000 Jews. If Jewish enthusiasm for Obama falls
markedly in this election, he could lose 15,000-20,000 of the voters
who chose him in 2008 in the state he needs to deny Romney to remain
president. In a very close race, that could be the ballgame.
Finally,
Pennsylvania, with its 300,000 Jews. Everyone seems to expect Obama to
hold it, but the last two weeks’ polls have seen a significant move
toward Romney. If that trend continues, Obama might find himself in
fatal waters.
Liberal
Jews seem certain Obama will have the appeal to their co-religionists
he had in 2008. But Obama himself doesn’t seem sure — and that may be
the most meaningful indication of all.
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