Doc's Talk: President Obama’s Shift on Syria and Western Strategy

Wednesday, September 04, 2013

President Obama’s Shift on Syria and Western Strategy

Lt. Col. (ret.) Jonathan D. Halevi

Vol. 13, No. 24 1 September 2013

The Assad regime has committed war crimes and crimes against humanity amounting to genocide, and rebel forces have perpetrated similar crimes, their leaders supporting genocide against the Alawite minority in the aftermath of the eventual toppling of the Assad regime. There is no guarantee that U.S. military action will bring an end to war crimes, but may only shift the balance of power from one despot to another.

The Syrian regime is far weaker than most observers think. Rebel forces are continuing to gain momentum in all districts. The regime’s dire situation is manifested in its ever-increasing reliance on irregular and volunteer forces from Iran, Iraq, and Lebanon (Hizbullah).

The Muslim Brotherhood is making a huge effort to establish an organizational infrastructure within Syria that will allow it to lead the opposition and take over after the overthrow of the Assad regime. It has placed its battalions within the Civilian Protection Committee under Free Syrian Army leadership, unlike the organizations affiliated with al-Qaeda, as the Brotherhood strives to take control from within the official groups.

If the U.S. attacks, the rebels will not express any gratitude and will view it as an imperial force attempting to promote its own narrow interests in the region and assist Israel. If it fails to attack, it will stand accused of keeping silent in the face of genocide, in practice abetting the Assad regime.

A limited military move has advantages. It will allow the Syrian regime to maneuver, yet will provide fresh impetus to the rebel forces to step up their military pressure without the need for foreign intervention.

The true test for the U.S. will be in its ability to influence the outcome of the conflict so that a responsible leadership replaces the Assad regime, and prevents chaos and the takeover of chemical weapons stockpiles by terrorist organizations.

The West’s Dilemma in Syria

U.S. President Barack Obama’s decision to seek congressional approval for military action against Syria will delay any punitive military action against the Assad regime at least until mid-September. The American commitment to act in Syria now depends to a large extent on President Obama’s ability to garner broad legitimacy at home, an outcome not to be taken for granted.

U.S. vacillation reflects the West’s dilemma regarding the civil war in Syria between President Assad’s Alawite regime, supported by Shiite Iran, and a coalition of forces dominated by elements affiliated with radical Islam and al-Qaeda.

The Assad regime has committed war crimes and crimes against humanity amounting to genocide, and rebel forces have perpetrated similar crimes, their leaders supporting genocide against the Alawite minority in the aftermath of the eventual toppling of the Assad regime.

The sense of moral obligation to respond to the chemical attack by the Assad regime clashes with a realistic understanding of “the day after,” and the fear that the West will pave the way for radical Islamic rebel forces to take over Syria (including its stockpiles of chemical weapons), thus facilitating their own war crimes. In other words, there is no guarantee that U.S. military action will bring an end to war crimes, but may only shift the balance of power from one despot to another.

Syria Fears U.S. Military Action

The official Syrian response interprets American policy as indecisive and weak. Yet beneath the heavy blanket of propaganda, the Syrian regime fears U.S. military action, understanding that it will focus on incapacitating the Syrian air force, military headquarters, anti-aircraft systems, surface-to-surface rockets, and chemical weapons stockpiles.

An American strike could hasten the disintegration of the Syrian army, which has suffered heavy losses in the past two and a half years, and has witnessed thousands of officers and soldiers defecting to the rebel ranks. The regime’s dire situation is manifested in its ever-increasing reliance on irregular and volunteer forces coming mainly from Iran, Iraq, and Lebanon (Hizbullah).

Assad himself told Le Figaro recently: “I can confidently state that the situation on the ground is much better than it was before.” But is this what the Syrian elites really believe?

The Regime Is Weaker than It Seems

Despite the self-confidence the Assad regime is trying to convey, the situation on the ground is entirely different. Syrian military forces succeeded several months ago in making tactical advances on the battlefield in al-Qusair and Homs, but ever since they have been on the losing side, with rebel forces continuing to gain momentum in all districts. U.S. military force will then be applied against a Syrian regime that is far weaker than most observers think.

In recent weeks the rebels have captured the two strategic villages of Khanser and Ariha in a military move aimed at severing the main supply route to the besieged Syrian army forces in Aleppo and Idlib. At the same time, the rebel military assault is continuing in the Latakia region and in villages in the Damascus area. Video footage from the fighting displays the Syrian soldiers’ low morale and successful rebel attacks against Syrian armor.

Islamists Oppose U.S. Intervention

The radical Islamic groups, including those identified with al-Qaeda, strongly oppose any U.S. attack on Syria, viewing it as a ploy intended to serve Israel’s interests and seeing it as ultimately leading to an American assault against the mujahedeen (radical militant Islamic groups).

In an official announcement, the Muslim Brotherhood explained that it opposed any punitive military action against Syria, as this could have unwanted consequences and strengthen the Assad regime. The Brotherhood supports the imposition of a no-fly zone over Syria, the demarcation of safe zones for the civilian population, and the transfer of qualitative weapons to the rebels.

The Muslim Brotherhood’s Strategy

The Muslim Brotherhood movement, outlawed three decades ago in Syria, is making a huge effort to establish an organizational infrastructure within Syria that will allow it to lead the opposition and take over key positions after the overthrow of the Assad regime.

In August 2013, the Muslim Brotherhood launched its first official bureau in the city of Aleppo, at the same time lending support to the Civilian Protection Committee, described by various elements within Syria (yet officially denied) as the military wing of the Brotherhood. This structure has provided a useful instrument for Islamist penetration of the Free Syrian Army.

Placing its battalions within the Civilian Protection Committee under Free Syrian Army leadership shows the Brotherhood’s strategic thinking. Unlike the organizations affiliated with al-Qaeda, it strives to take control from within the official groups representing the rebels (the Free Syrian Army, the “Coalition,” the “National Council”) in order to mobilize international recognition and advance its political agenda to take over Damascus.

“The Day After” Scenarios

In the absence of significant liberal secular opposition forces, “the day after” scenarios for Syria alternate between genocide of the Alawite minority, chaos and disintegration of the Syrian state into areas controlled along ethnic lines, or a takeover by radical Islamic forces wishing to establish a Muslim religious state (according to al-Qaeda and the Muslim Brotherhood).

The American decision to attack in Syria is opposed by the Syrian opposition forces and lacks the backing of the Arab League. The meeting of Arab League foreign ministers on September 1 in Cairo did not give expressed support to an American or Western military assault against Syria, and settled on a more general statement calling on the international community to “take necessary and deterring measures against the perpetrators of the crimes.”

U.S. Interests and Actions

The U.S. may find itself hurt by any of the likely scenarios. If it attacks, the rebels will not express any gratitude and will view it as an imperial force attempting to promote its own narrow interests in the region and assist Israel. If it fails to attack, it will stand accused of keeping silent in the face of genocide, in practice abetting the Assad regime.

Additionally, the U.S. could risk the expansion of the conflict to other regions in the Middle East and beyond by Syria and Iran and its allies. At this stage, this could mean the launching of terrorist attacks and firing long-range missiles at Israel.

The supreme interest of the U.S. administration at present is to ensure control of Syria’s chemical weapon stockpiles, the Assad regime’s last resort. Any military assault will have to give this issue top priority.

Against this backdrop and in the absence of a broad international coalition (Britain has said it will not participate in any attack), and in view of Russia and China’s support for the Assad regime, the U.S. administration may follow the middle ground of sending a message of determined commitment to respond when chemical weapons are used, but will not instigate a large-scale military move to replace the Syrian regime.

A limited military move has many advantages. It will allow the Syrian regime to maneuver, yet will provide fresh impetus to the rebel forces to step up their military pressure without the need for foreign intervention in the decisive stages.

The West needs to approach the use of force in Syria with a well-defined sense of its strategic goals. The true test for the U.S. will not be on the battlefield, where it has an overwhelming advantage, but in its ability to influence the outcome of the conflict so that a responsible and significant leadership replaces the Assad regime, and prevents chaos and the takeover of chemical weapons stockpiles by terrorist organizations.

Publication: Jerusalem Issue Briefs

- See more at: http://jcpa.org/article/president-obamas-shift-syria-western-strategy/#sthash.5knukVeU.dpuf

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The IDF’s Minorities in Numbers and Pictures

In honor of IDF Diversity Week, we present diversity through numbers and pictures. Each year, more and more Muslims, Christians, Druze, Bedouin and immigrants from around the world take on the responsibility of defending Israel.

MUSLIMS:

Muslim Arab Israelis are not required to draft in the IDF, but there are many who volunteer. In 2013, there were over 200 Muslims serving in the IDF and over 300 in the reserves.

Bedouins:

Bedouins are nomadic Muslims who were in Israel when modern borders were set in place and are now considered Israeli citizens. They are not required to draft but a growing number choose to enlist. In 2012, there were over 1,400 Bedouin Muslim soldiers doing regular IDF service and almost 1,500 in the reserves.

Read more:http://www.idfblog.com/2014/02/27/truth-idf-numbers-pictures/#more-34027

Are you aware that in 2013, Middle class taxes go up-significantly?

In January of next year, the federal income tax rate for middle-class taxpayers is scheduled to rise from 25 percent to 28 percent, and the payroll tax is scheduled to rise from 13.3 percent to 15.3 percent… This drives the marginal tax rate based on the aforementioned three taxes to 48.12 percent. Add in state and local property, corporate, excise, and other state and local taxes, and the percentage of each additional dollar that is taxed hovers around 50 percent… When half of each additional dollar earned is taxed away, taxpayers experience a disincentive to start businesses or expand existing ones. This leads to fewer jobs being created.

Why is HAMAS Inside Tampa Schools?

Clare Lopez

Kelly Miliziano, who teaches history classes at Steinbrenner High School in the Tampa, Florida area apparently thinks it’s perfectly OK to invite a senior official of a HAMAS-affiliated organization into her classroom to discuss Islam with her students. According to local media reports, not only has this been going on for years, but in spite of the civil and criminal proceedings that could result from such reckless negligence, the Hillsborough County school superintendent, Mary Ellen Elia, and the chairman of the school board, Candy Olson, also expressed approval for students under their responsibility to be exposed repeatedly to guest speaker, Hassan Shibly, who is the Executive Director for the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) in the Tampa area.
More...

Did You Know... Ignoring the Call to Islam will Bring Jihad

‘Conquest through Da’wa [proselytizing] that is what we hope for. We will conquer Europe, we will conquer America! Not through sword but through Da’wa.’
-- Yousef al-Qaradawi , Muslim Brotherhood spiritual leader The Arabic word ‘Da’wa’ means the “call to Islam.” But do not think that Da’wa is the same thing as an invitation to an optional holiday event. The classical Islamic doctrine of jihad mandates that enemies must be given the opportunity to convert to Islam or pay the jizya tax before it is permissible to attack them.
Clare M. Lopez

Who is being discriminated-facts tell the truth

Religious bias

Hate crimes motivated by religious bias accounted for 1,409 offenses reported by law enforcement. A breakdown of the bias motivation of religious-bias offenses showed:

65.4 percent were anti-Jewish.
13.2 percent were anti-Islamic.
9.5 percent were anti-other religion, i.e., those not specified.
4.3 percent were anti-Catholic.
3.8 percent were anti-multiple religions, group.
3.3 percent were anti-Protestant.
0.5 percent were anti-Atheism/Agnosticism/etc.

http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/hate-crime/2010/narratives/hate-crime-2010-incidents-and-offenses.

On March 31, 1977, the Dutch newspaper Trouw published an interview

with PLO executive committee member Zahir Muhsein. Here's what he said:

"The Palestinian people does not exist. The creation of a Palestinian state is only a means for continuing our struggle against the state of Israel for our Arab unity. In reality today there is no difference between Jordanians, Palestinians, Syrians and Lebanese. Only for political and tactical reasons do we speak today about the existence of a Palestinian people, since Arab national interests demand that we posit the existence of a distinct "Palestinian people" to oppose Zionism.

For tactical reasons, Jordan, which is a sovereign state with defined borders, cannot raise claims to Haifa and Jaffa, while as a Palestinian, I can undoubtedly demand Haifa, Jaffa, Beer-Sheva and Jerusalem. However, the moment we reclaim our right to all of Palestine, we will not wait even a minute to unite Palestine and Jordan."

In March 1977, Zahir Muhsein, a PLO executive, said:

"The Palestinian people does not exist. The creation of a Palestinian state is only a means for continuing our struggle against the state of Israel for our Arab unity. In reality today there is no difference between Jordanians, Palestinians, Syrians and Lebanese. Only for political and tactical reasons do we speak today about the existence of a Palestinian people, since Arab national interests demand that we posit the existence of a distinct Palestinian people to oppose Zionism."

"For tactical reasons, Jordan, which is a sovereign state with defined borders, cannot raise claims to Haifa and Jaffa, while as a Palestinian, I can undoubtedly demand Haifa, Jaffa, Beer-Sheva and Jerusalem. However, the moment we reclaim our right to all of Palestine, we will not wait even a minute to unite Palestine and Jordan."

The Arab Apartheid

Ben-Dror Yemini
In 1948, the Arab countries refused to accept the UN partition proposal and they launched a war of annihilation against the State of Israel which had barely been established. All precedents in this matter showed that the party that starts the war - and with a declaration of annihilation, yet - pays a price for it. Between 550,000 and 710,000 Arabs fled because of the war and a larger number of 850,000 Jews were expelled or fled from Arab countries (the "Jewish nakba").
Population exchanges and expulsions were the norm at that time, occurring in dozens of other conflict points and affecting about 52 million people. In all the population exchange precedents that occurred during or at the end of an armed conflict, there was no return of refugees to the previous region, which had turned into a new national state.
Only the Arab states acted completely differently from the rest of the world. Instead of assimilating the refugees, they crushed them despite the fact that they were their coreligionists and members of the Arab nation - instituting a regime of apartheid. So the "nakba" was not caused by the actual dispossession, which had also been experienced by tens of millions of others. The "nakba" is the story of the apartheid, oppression, abuse and denial of rights suffered by the Arab refugees at the hands of the Arab countries. (Maariv)

International Law and Military Operations in Practice - Col. Richard Kemp

"Islamist fighting groups study the international laws of armed conflict carefully and they understand it well. They know that a British or Israeli commander and his men are bound by international law and the rules of engagement that flow from it. They then do their utmost to exploit what they view as one of their enemy's main weaknesses. Their very modus operandi is built on the correct assumption that Western armies will normally abide by the rules, while these insurgents employ a deliberate policy of operating consistently outside international law. "

Lost Historical Moments

What Rabin’s last Knesset speech really said:repudiation of a Palestinian state

Rabin ruled out a fully sovereign Palestinian state :

“We view the permanent solution in the framework of State of Israel which will include most of the area of the Land of Israel as it was under the rule of the British Mandate, and alongside it a Palestinian entity which will be a home to most of the Palestinian residents living in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank. We would like this to be an entity which is less than a state, and which will independently run the lives of the Palestinians under its authority.”

Rabin ruled out a total withdrawal from Judea and Samaria and thus a return to the pre-June 1967 borders :

“The borders of the State of Israel, during the permanent solution, will be beyond the lines which existed before the Six Day War. We will not return to the 4 June 1967 lines.”

Rabin ruled out withdrawing form the Jordan Valley:

“The security border of the State of Israel will be located in the Jordan Valley, in the broadest meaning of that term.”

Rabin ruled out uprooting settlement blocs, like the Gush Katif bloc in Gaza (which was subsequently uprooted by former Prime Minister Ariel Sharon):

“The establishment of blocs of settlements in Judea and Samaria, like the one in Gush Katif.

AND

Rabin ruled out removing any settlement before coming to a full peace agreement with the Palestinians:

“I want to remind you: we committed ourselves, that is, we came to an agreement, and committed ourselves before the Knesset, not to uproot a single settlement in the framework of the interim agreement, and not to hinder building for natural growth.”

Rabin insisted on Israel retaining full security control of the borders with Egypt and Jordan, contrary to Israel’s relinquishment of the Philadelphia Corridor on the border with Egypt:

“The responsibility for external security along the borders with Egypt and Jordan, as well as control over the airspace above all of the territories and Gaza Strip maritime zone, remains in our hands.”

Correcting Oslo Myths-Part 2

3) Kuttab laments that the post-1993 Oslo process resulted in a Palestinian Authority "whose ministers and legislators are not guaranteed passage between Gaza and the West Bank ...."

Before free passage or other perquisites, PA leaders were obligated, among other things, to eliminate the terrorist infrastructure in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, end anti-Israeli, antisemitic incitement in schools, mosques, and communications media, and resolve all outstanding issues through peaceful negotiations. They met none of these commitments, sometimes bolstering terrorism and greatly increasing incitement.

4) Kuttab complains that under Oslo the PA got "lightly armed police ---- but no real sovereignty over the land or contiguity between our communities in Gaza and the West Bank."

Oslo agreements repeatedly were revised, regardless of Palestinian non-compliance, until the authorized number of police grew from 8,000 to 40,000. Though they were to be the only armed forces in the territories, Israeli estimates early in the second intifada put the number of gunmen - police, "security services," terrorists, and armed gangs - at 85,000. Their armament reportedly included not only heavy machine guns and rocket-propelled grenades, but also anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles.

Sovereignty was to be negotiated in the envisioned 1998 "final status" talks - after a five-year period of confidence-building. Palestinian leadership chronically undermined the process. Palestinian terrorism made the 1993 - 1998 Oslo period more deadly for Israelis than the 15 years preceding it.

The United States doesn't have contiguity between the lower 48 states and Alaska and Hawaii; territorial contiguity between the West Bank and Gaza Strip - that is, through the 20 miles of Israeli territory between them - was never promised and would destroy Israeli contiguity.

5) "Palestinians have been made to endure hundreds of checkpoints in the West Bank, an eight-foot wall deep in our territories, and tight Israeli control over borders."

The security barrier is not "deep in Palestinian territories," but rather encompasses less than 8 percent of Judea and Samaria, and is mostly a fence, rarely a wall; the land in question is not "our [Palestinian] territories" but disputed territory to which, according to the authors of U.N. Security Council Resolution 242, Jews as well as Arabs have claims; and there are no international borders, only the 1949 armistice lines with Jordan. Under 242, borders remain to be negotiated. As for checkpoints - like the security barrier and "tight Israeli control" - Palestinian Arabs precipitated these measures themselves. No terrorism and there would be no fence or tight Israeli control and few checkpoints - like before the first intifada.

Correcting Some Oslo Myths

1) In Oslo "Israeli, Palestinian and other world leaders promised that ... Palestinian sovereignty would be solidified."

No, they didn't. The 1993 Declaration of Principles and subsequent Oslo agreements outlined a process by which final status negotiations about the West Bank and Gaza Strip would be reached. The process required an end to anti-Israel terrorism and incitement and a commitment to peaceful negotiations. The PA, Fatah, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, and other terrorist groups, sabotaged the process from the start.

2) "The reality is that, in defiance of U.N. Security Council Resolution 242, which states that it is inadmissible to occupy land by force, Palestinian territories are still under foreign military occupation."
Wrong again. Resolution 242 (1967) does note "the inadmissibility of the acquisition of territory by war." It also affirms the right of every state in the area "to live in peace with secure and recognized boundaries free from threats or acts of force." There were no "Palestinian territories." Jordan occupied the West Bank, Egypt controlled Gaza. Israel did not have "secure and recognized boundaries," so retention of some of those territories was possible under 242. Israel is not a "foreign" military occupier in the West Bank but, pending final negotiations, the lawful military administrator as a result of a successful war of self-defense.

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