Why might Syria or Iran attack Israel? Obviously that is impossible to predict but here is an indication.
The
traditional pattern has been that Israel is attacked when the
perpetrator wants to mobilize international Arab support. The idea is
that Arabs, no matter what their citizenship, would cheer the assault.
Indeed, even Persians, Turks, and others would do so. And hence lies
international political profit. This was originally illustrated by Gamal
Abdul Nasser's Egypt in the 1950s and has been shown many times since.
But
not always. It has always failed many times, increasingly in recent
years, for example with Syria in the 1982 Lebanon war or in Iraq in the
1991 Kuwait war. Then again, it has also yielded no real material help.
This is, of course, mainly true for strategic direct attacks, not those shadowy terrorist
groups but that limits the size of attacks as well.
And
now Hizballah, an open ally of Syria, has come out as a strategic
factor, a semi-state actor no longer covered by its historic
designation. Hizballah d0es not want to set off a Hizballah-Israel war
when it is already under intensive criticism and military pressure
because of fighting in an anti-Sunni war killing that community's people
in Syria.
Some
reasons are that while aggressive Arab states or Iran, as well as
radical Islamism, have increasingly threatened Arab states and
populations this set up a cross-cutting factor. It was far from the only
issue. Admit it or not, there were far more considerations in play.
Now
what would the Syrian side gain for targeting Israel? No Sunni Muslim
will leap to the defense of the Bashar al-Assad or Iranian region as a
result! The Israel card is useless and everyone in the region knows
this.
So
why do these threats endure? Simple.To scare the West or Israel so as
to intimidate them into doing what the aggressor want; to intimidate the
Arabs in a boogy-man complex.
And thus it may contribute to a state or regime's defensive strategy so it can go on, so to speak,
committing aggression in peace.
Of
course it the bluff is called and if the aggressor added onto the
attack, it would achieve far more damage to the attacker with no real
benefit. Will such an operation contribute to Assad winning the civil
war or surviving? Of course not.
The
Iranians won't attack Israel because it would be so difficult for them
to do and it would unleash a full-scale confrontation with the Unites
States that will gain them nothing. The same is true for Syria,which
would guarantee to make the United States seek regime change in Damascus
and make it far harder to win
the civil war. The most likely attack would be by Hizballah with
rockets.
So these threats should be laughed at--no matter that the threats must be prepared for carefully--and the response would be: You and what army?
Professor Barry Rubin, Director, Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center http://www.gloria-center.org
Forthcoming Book: Nazis, Islamists, and the Making of the Modern Middle East (Yale University Press)
The Rubin Report blog http://rubinreports.blogspot.com/
He is a featured columnist at PJM http://pajamasmedia.com/barryrubin/.
Editor, Middle East Review of International Affairs (MERIA) Journal http://www.gloria-center.org
He is a featured columnist at PJM http://pajamasmedia.com/barryrubin/.
Editor, Middle East Review of International Affairs (MERIA) Journal http://www.gloria-center.org
Editor Turkish Studies, http://www.tandfonline.com/loi/ftur20#.UZs4pLUwdqU
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