A
prudent U.S. foreign and defense policy would assume that Iran's
nuclear weapons program is probably on a par with North Korea's.
Dr. Peter Vincent Pry
The
writer is Executive Director of the Task Force on National and Homeland
Security and Director of the U.S. Nuclear Strategy Forum, both
congressional advisory boards, and served in the Congressional EMP
Commission, the Congressional Strategic Posture Commission, the House
Armed Services Committee, and the CIA. He is author of Apocalypse
Unknown: The Struggle To Protect America From An Electromagnetic Pulse
Catastrophe available through CreateSpace.com or Amazon.com.
The biggest liar is in the White House.
For several years now, myself and others have been warning that Iran probably already has the bomb. Contrary to Obama Administration promises that they will know when Iran crosses "the red line" to build the bomb, we have warned that such claims are false.
U.S. intelligence is not good enough to so precisely and with such high confidence monitor and verify the status of Iran's nuclear weapons program.
Defense Science Board Report
A
recently published Defense Department study "Assessment of Nuclear
Monitoring and Verification Technologies" (January 2014), by the blue
ribbon Defense Science Board, concludes the following:
"Closing
the nation's global nuclear monitoring gaps should be a national
priority. It will require, however, a level of commitment and
sustainment we don't normally do well without a crisis. ....monitoring
for proliferation... presents challenges for which current solutions are
either inadequate, or more often, do not exist. Among these challenges
are... Small inventories of weapons and materials.... Small nuclear
enterprises designed to produce, store, and deploy only a small number
of weapons...Undeclared facilities and/or covert operations, such as
testing below detection thresholds, or acquisition of materials or
weapons through theft or purchase... Use of non‐traditional technologies..."
These
intelligence blind-spots align perfectly with U.S. monitoring gaps
against Iran's nuclear weapons program. The Defense Science Board Report
is tantamount to an admission that Iran probably already has the bomb.
Clandestine Nuclear Weapons Program
Like
the North Korean nuclear weapons program, Iran's nuclear weapons
program is clandestine, mostly underground, mostly inaccessible to
international inspections, and impenetrable to U.S. national technical
means. Most of what we know about Iran's nuclear program has been
disclosed voluntarily by Tehran to the International Atomic Energy
Agency.
The U.S. did not even suspect Iran was working on the bomb until 2002, after the program was in operation for some 15 years.
We
should know from our own experience that Iran probably already has the
bomb. During its World War II Manhattan Project, when nuclear weapons
were only a theoretical possibility, and working with 1940s era
technology, the U.S. built two atomic bombs of radically different
design that both worked perfectly -- in a mere three years.
Iran,
with access to copious unclassified information on nuclear weapon
designs, working with 21st Century technology, helped by the A.Q. Khan
network, North Korea, Russia, and China, supposedly has been unable to
build the bomb -- after thirty years of trying. This is an implausibly
optimistic assessment.
North Korea developed its first nuclear weapons in no more than 8 years.
Unreported
by the mainstream media are warnings that Iran might already have the
bomb by such experts as former Director of Central Intelligence R. James
Woolsey; former Chairman of the National Intelligence Council Fritz
Ermarth; President Reagan's Science Advisor Dr. William R. Graham;
former Director of the Defense Nuclear Agency Vice Admiral Robert
Monroe; former Director of the Strategic Defense Initiative Ambassador
Henry Cooper; and Israeli intelligence officers, the latter going public
in the Israeli newspaper Maariv in September 2013.
Historically, the U.S. intelligence community has underestimated and been surprised
by foreign nuclear weapon programs. They were surprised by the first
Soviet A-bomb test in 1949, by the Soviet H-bomb test in 1955, by
China's first nuclear test in 1964, by discovery after the 1991 Persian
Gulf War that Iraq under Saddam Hussein was within 6 months of
developing an atomic bomb, by Pakistan and India's nuclear tests in
1998, and by North Korea's nuclear test in 2006.
Nuclear Testing Not Necessary
Nuclear
testing is not necessary to develop a nuclear weapon deliverable by
aircraft or missile. The U.S. Hiroshima bomb (a "gun-type" uranium bomb)
was not tested before use -- Hiroshima was the test. Israel, South
Africa, and North Korea all developed nuclear weapons without nuclear
testing.
North
Korea developed its first nuclear weapon by 1993, according to a
declassified CIA report and Senate testimony by then Director of Central
Intelligence R. James Woolsey. North Korea's first nuclear test years
later, in 2006, was probably for political purposes -- nuclear blackmail
of the U.S. and its allies -- and to develop more sophisticated nuclear
weapons.
Iran
and North Korea are strategic partners and by treaty and in practice
share science and technology. North Korean scientists are present in
Iran helping its missile and nuclear programs. Iranian scientists
reportedly have been present at all three North Korean nuclear tests.
A
prudent U.S. foreign and defense policy would assume that Iran's
nuclear weapons program is probably on a par with North Korea's.
See No Evil
America
has a bigger problem with its intelligence community than the
inadequacy of national technical means to monitor rogue state and
terrorist nuclear weapon programs.
Intelligence
community leaders General James Clapper, Director of National
Intelligence, and Michael Morrell, until recently the Deputy Director of
CIA, are proven liars, willing to lie to Congress and the American
people to cover up the failures and transgressions of the Obama
Administration.
Clapper
lied about National Security Agency spying on the American people. He
lied again in covering for President Obama's false assertion that North
Korea does not have nuclear missiles -- during the crisis over North
Korea's threatened nuclear missile strikes in 2013 -- belittling the
Defense Intelligence Agency's accurate assessment that Pyongyang does,
in fact, have nuclear armed missiles.
Morrell
lied when he altered CIA talking points on Benghazi to protect then
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and the Obama Administration.
Clapper
and Morrell are clear indicators that the Obama Administration has
corrupted -- the technical word is "politicized" -- the intelligence
community. How can Congress and the American people trust their
intelligence leaders to tell the truth about anything that reflects
badly on this White House? The fish rots from the head down.
The biggest liar is in the White House.
The
Obama Administration's Geneva interim agreement with Iran is probably
calculated to kick the can down the road so some future administration
will get blamed if Iran eventually does a nuclear test. The model is the
Clinton Administration's Agreed Framework with North Korea, which never
had any realistic chance of denuclearizing North Korea, but kicked the
can to the Bush Administration, so they got blamed for the North Korean
bomb when Pyongyang tested in 2006.
Nuclear Surprise
If Iran already has the bomb, why have they not yet tested?
Fritz
Ermarth thinks Iran is following the example of North Korea, and
probably wants to clandestinely build such robust capabilities so that
its nuclear status will become irreversible.
Israel
and South Africa never tested because they elected to pursue a policy
of deliberate ambiguity, to reap the deterrence benefits of being known
nuclear weapon states while avoiding the international opprobrium of
making their nuclear status official by testing.
However,
most of my colleagues and I conclude from analysis of Iranian and
Jihadi statements and writings that Tehran is not interested in the bomb
for status or deterrence. The word "deterrence" does not even appear in
their military writings about the bomb. It is all about nuclear use, in
particular a nuclear electromagnetic pulse (EMP) attack that would
cause a protracted national blackout, potentially killing millions of
Americans through starvation and societal collapse.
For
example: "If the world's industrial countries fail to devise effective
ways to defend themselves against dangerous electronic assaults, then
they will disintegrate within a few years.... American soldiers would
not be able to find food to eat nor would they be able to fire a single
shot." (Tehran, Nashriyeh-e Siasi Nezami)
The
mullahs who run Iran want the bomb for reasons of religious eschatology
having to do with the Shiite version of Apocalypse, the return of their
12th Imam, and the ultimate triumph of Islam in the secular and
spiritual universe. In this vision, the Jews and Infidels (that's us)
must convert or die.
The
Islamic Bomb has nothing to do with deterrence theory or geostrategic
calculations familiar to Western nuclear strategists. The Mullahs have
their own timetable for the Apocalypse. They hold a "12th Imam
Conference" in Tehran every year to study signs and portents. Their
development of nuclear weapons, and the failure of the West to stop
them, is itself interpreted as one of the "miracles" indicating the
Apocalypse is nigh.
The
possibility of nuclear EMP attack is another "miracle" as it destroys
the high-tech society and weaponry that is the source of U.S. strength.
In this view, Western materialism and worship of the False God that is
Technology becomes our downfall.
A
Nuclear EMP attack would cause us to destroy ourselves by means of the
corrupt lifestyles of an anti-spiritual civilization wholly focused and
dependent upon high-tech materialism. We would die for our sins in the
perfect act of divine retribution:
"In
the context of the final battle... all of the planes and satellites
will fall, computers will fail, other equipment will be made useless
and... the Earth will be shaken ... by nuclear war," prophesy Abdallah
and Shayk Muhammed an-Naqshbandi, "Technology will stop or turn against
the Americans."
The
Congressional EMP Commission warned that Iran has several times
detonated its Shahab III missile at high altitudes, apparently
simulating a nuclear EMP attack. Iran has also demonstrated the
capability to launch a ballistic missile from a freighter and make a
nuclear EMP strike anonymously, and so perhaps escape retaliation. Iran
has also orbited several satellites on trajectories consistent with
practicing a surprise nuclear EMP attack against the United States.
Iran
has not conducted a nuclear test because its theocracy is not
interested in diplomatic "signaling" or Western theories of nuclear
deterrence and arms control bargaining. When the mullahs are ready, they
will make a surprise nuclear attack. The vaporization of New York City
and an EMP attack that crashes American society will be their nuclear
tests.
The bottom line is that Iran is a nuclear truck bomb headed our way.
Dr.
Peter Vincent Pry served in the CIA, the House Armed Services
Committee, the Congressional Strategic Posture Commission, the
Congressional EMP Commission, and is the author of Electric Armageddon
and Apocalypse Unknown both books available through CreateSpace.com and
Amazon.com.
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