Just
like old times, it seems. Well,
there were no visits to Venezuela during the Cold War. But the visits to Cuba happened early
and often.
Now
one of the old players herself is back.
Vishnya AGI Viktor Leonov,
SSV-175 (in Cyrillic, CCB-175), reportedly docked in Havana on Wednesday 26 February. Western media are interpreting this as
an unusually quiet visit, but the surprise would be if there were more fanfare. Neither the Russian navy nor its Soviet
predecessor has ever heralded the movements of intelligence collectors. Such ships have always slipped in and
out of foreign ports with a minimum of notice.
The
more interesting fact about SSV-175 is that she was photographed
at a pier in Curacao on 30 January. She has apparently been hanging around
the coast of Venezuela in the Caribbean during the weeks of unrest there. This would of course be more for Russian
purposes than for anyone else’s, but we can assume there is some level of
intelligence sharing going on, with Cuba at the very
least.
SSV-175 would sit offshore and suck down trons,
presumably relaying a great deal to an intel center in Russia, and perhaps some
to Cuba as well. A key interest for
both Russia and her Central American clients would be the activities of
long-time U.S. allies Colombia and Panama, as well as any American activities –
including civil and private – the AGI could identify and
track.
The
AGI is not a fighting platform; certainly not for projecting military power
ashore. She has two 30mm guns and a
pair of launchers for short range anti-air missiles (the SA-N-8 “Gremlin”
system, the naval version of the SA-14).
Her presence in the region is not a military tactical advantage for
Russia’s clients.
The
timing of SSV-175’s patrol is presumably no coincidence. We don’t know exactly when she left her
Northern Fleet home port on the Barents Sea, but since she was in Curacao on the
30th, we do know it was at least before 10 January (and probably before
that. At an overall speed of 12
knots, the ship would have needed to leave the Barents around 2 or 3
January). It’s unlikely that the
AGI is in Central America just for the excitement of popular unrest in
Venezuela, however. The more
interesting event could well be the deployment of the Iranian navy task
force.
It’s
not clear what the Russians know about that (other than what we all know). If they’re not “in” on a concealed
Iranian purpose for this deployment, they would be extremely interested in what
Kharg and Sabalan do when they get here. (Keep in mind, Russia and Iran cultivate
each other for the convenience of certain national goals, but the idea of
fraternal trust between them is laughable.
Iran is more likely to pursue her objectives in Latin America without informing Russia of every move
than the reverse.)
The
Iranian frigate and supply ship could have arrived in
Venezuela, at
the very earliest, on 21 February.
I doubt they did, however.
They would have had to move at a brisk clip with almost no stopping to do
it. The Russian AGI’s diversion to
Cuba may mean that the Iranian ships are on their Atlantic transit at the
moment, after a final refueling stop in Northwest Africa. The Russians will presumably be tracking
the Iranian ships, as we can assume the U.S. is.
The
Iranian ships’ first arrival won’t necessarily get wide coverage, however. If Kharg is carrying something naughty,
Iran and Venezuela will want to offload it before letting the cameras start
clicking.
CDR, USN (Ret.)
Hemet, CA
No comments:
Post a Comment