Israel’s
situation regarding Gaza cannot be understood without grasping two terms: hudna
and tahdiya. Hudna is a binding religious concept based on the
agreement that the Prophet Muhammad made with the Quraysh tribe, in which he
undertook a total ceasefire. Hamas can declare a hudna only if it
actually intends to stop firing at Israel. It has made clear that it will do so
only if Israel withdraws to the 1967 lines and agrees to implement the
Palestinain “right of return” within Israeli territory.
Since
that, of course, will not happen, Hamas cannot stop directing fire at Israel.
However, tahdiya – “calming” – can allow that to happen.
The war with
Israel continues but on a low flame, which is the situation at present. In its
argument with the Palestinian Authority in Ramallah, Hamas contrasts its model
of “resistance” – compatible with that of tahdiya or “calming” – with
the model of Ramallah’s “talks.”
What
should Israel do? It is clear what it should not do: reconquer Gaza. Entering
Gaza is like the U.S. army’s entry into Faluja in Iraq; it means grappling with
terror groups, armed from head to toe, in Gaza’s alleys and refugee camps.
Moreover, the option of handing Gaza to Fatah does not exist, because Fatah
does not exist in Gaza. Fatah is conflicted and divided, not even accepting
Ramallah’s authority. The days of Fatah rule in Gaza were days of rampant
anarchy, with no chance of clamping down on all the terror groups firing at
Israel at will. Today Hamas has considerably more control of these groups.
If
Fatah rule returns to Gaza, or even if the occupation is restored, it will play
into the hands of Ramallah, which will be able to claim that “all of Palestine
is occupied.” That will augment the demand for a Palestinian state in both
parts of the Palestinian Authority and for a safe passage that would cut Israel
in two.
What
to do, then? The thing to do is wait. The Hamas regime has severe problems,
even if no one is currently challenging its rule. One of the critical problems
is infrastructure collapse. With Gaza floating in sewage, and electricity
stoppages a routine of life, Hamas can still maneuver. But when the system for
providing drinking water collapses, something has to be done. Only Israel can
save Gaza from life-threatening thirst.
Within
a year the problem will be acute. One can foresee all the Europeans coming to
Israel to demand that the crisis be dealt with in “humanitarian” terms – that
is, providing free water to Gaza. Israel, however, must demand something in
return – the dismantlement of all terror infrastructures – just as the
international community demanded that Assad dismantle all his chemical
weaponry. This is the opportunity to bring about a change in Gaza.
Pinhas Inbari is a
veteran Arab affairs correspondent who formerly reported for Israel Radio and
Al Hamishmar newspaper, and currently serves as an analyst for the Jerusalem
Center for Public Affairs.
- See more at:
http://jcpa.org/link-israeli-support-gaza-infrastructure-dismantling-terror-infrastructure/#sthash.CepW414t.dpuf
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