I will be posting less frequently now that the war is over – updating my
readers often but not necessarily daily on the anticipated negotiations in Cairo
and other matters of importance for Israel.
But for today, having stepped back for 24 hours plus now to assess the
situation and gather information, I want to focus in this posting on how I see
our current situation. And to make a couple of pertinent comments:
Wishful thinking is an indulgence we cannot permit ourselves now.
What is necessary is to look at the broader picture with eyes wide open.
And to recognize that there is no perfect solution to our very difficult
and complex situation.
With all the above in mind, I do believe that stopping the war at this
point – and heading towards negotiations in Cairo - is probably the best
solution for Israel at present. I write this fully aware of the fact that
some strenuously disagree with me and believe Hamas must be taken out.
Indubitably I would have liked to have seen Haniyeh’s head separated from
his shoulders. But I have come to the conclusion that the price of
achieving this may be too high right now.
The IDF has done an assessment of what would have been required to re-take
Gaza and clean it of terrorist elements (that would mean not just Hamas but also
al-Qaeda and other jihadists) and remove all weapons:
We would have seen many hundreds of our best soldiers killed; as they
entered the cesspool of Gaza city, with its network of underground tunnels,
there likely would have been numerous kidnappings as well (the worst of
nightmares), as terrorists leaped out of tunnels and grabbed them.
It is estimated that the entire operation would go on for at least five
years.
~~~~~~~~~~
And then there is the issue of the civilian death toll in Gaza. There
are always civilian deaths in war. And we should not allow ourselves to be
manipulated by Hamas’s cruel use of human shields. (Indeed, even
as the war is over, we must continue to present to the world evidence of that
tactic and of the moral integrity of Israel’s fight.)
But neither can this factor be totally brushed aside. For the number of
dead – some of them children - would have increased enormously. And the
fact is that we Israelis ourselves are not terribly comfortable with this.
I am reminded of the story told very recently by Col. Richard Kemp, who spoke to
an Israeli pilot who said he was glad he had had 17 missions aborted because of
civilians – he said he didn’t want to have it on his conscience that he had
killed a civilian. We have, indeed, the most moral army in the world, and
we need to ask what the corrosive effect on the collective soul (and fighting
morale) of Israel would be, were we to pursue a very extended battle here.
The concomitant to this is the world’s response. This is the age of TV and
video and Internet, and the Western world has no stomach for the sight of bombed
babies. That the response to us is grossly unfair (and colored by
anti-Semitism) is a given. As is the bias of the media, and the way that
Hamas stifles fair reporting via threats to journalists inside of Gaza. But,
judging by the hammering we’ve endured these past weeks, it’s difficult to even
imagine the dimensions of what we’d be dealing with, were the war to continue
for years.
And the unpalatable fact is that the international response would have
ramifications: be it in terms of the deaths being used as a rationale for
violent anti-Semitic attacks in Europe and elsewhere, or in terms of damage to
our economic growth and ability to sustain ourselves, or attempts at legal
delegitimization of Israel. Perhaps, just perhaps, this needs to be
factored into the equation somehow.
~~~~~~~~~~
Yet concern about civilian deaths and its ramifications is a small matter
compared to what I believe is the over-riding concern
here:
Hamas is not the only enemy we face. Nor is it
remotely the most lethal.
Hezbollah sits at our north in Lebanon with weaponry – including guided
missiles! - more sophisticated than that of Hamas. It is not inclined to
attack us now, but we must remain prepared for that possibility.
Were we to become too pre-occupied with military battles in Gaza,
it might weaken our ability to face Hezbollah effectively.
And then there is Hezbollah’s sponsor, Iran. Remember Iran, which sort of
fell off the radar screen these past weeks? We require resources to deal
with this threat as well. Iran has a friend in Obama and the rest of the
world sits with its eyes and ears covered. It may yet fall to
Israel to face this threat alone.
Nor are these two threats separate, as Iran supports Hezbollah and would
surely promote an attack on us from Lebanon, were we to hit.
~~~~~~~~~~
My understanding is that we’ve done sufficient damage to Hamas at this
point so that efforts to control it without further fighting have a reasonable
chance of being successful. If this were not the case, there would be no
excuse for pulling out. As it is, Hamas, while not out, is badly injured
and in an extremely weak negotiating position.
Egypt has already rejected several Hamas demands, such as opening of a port
and an airport, and is reportedly negative on requests for a crossing from Gaza
into Egypt at Rafah. Nor are we about to lift the sea blockade.
While we will permit goods to go into Gaza (via crossings from Israel), we will
monitor them. Israel will work with Egypt to prevent the smuggling of
weapons into Gaza via the Sinai.
An Israeli team is already in Cairo and meeting with Egyptian intelligence.
Israel maintains the right, at any point, to go back into Gaza should Hamas
begin launching rockets again.
~~~~~~~~~~
Deputy commander of the Nahal Brigade Ori Shechter told
Army Radio this morning that Hamas “crawled to Egypt” to beg for a ceasefire. He
described Operation Protective Edge as an “overwhelming defeat for
Hamas.”
This is all to the good, but does not addresses the demilitarization that
Netanyahu is seeking. Without some form of demilitarization, keeping Hamas
down indefinitely will be problematic. It may be crawling, but still has
leaders and some rockets, and rocket-building know how.
~~~~~~~~~~
As was anticipated, that consummate diplomat, John Kerry, is back pushing
“the two state solution” again. No point in wasting time. He is seeking
a "bigger, broader approach to the underlying solution of
two states" and suggests negotiations on this be tied to the negotiations with
Hamas.
There are more holes in this approach than there are in a bath
sponge. There is a Jewish saying; You cannot ride on two horses with one
tuchis. But indeed this is what Abbas is attempting to do. He
represents himself as the moderate in contrast with the radicals of Hamas, but
he is defending Hamas and seeks to join in negotiations in Cairo at the side of
Hamas. What makes it all the more ludicrous is that Hamas and Abbas’s
Fatah have a “unity agreement” that Abbas has not chosen to disavow. One
tuchis, two horses.
There is some poorly conceived scheme afoot to put Abbas and his PA in
control again in Gaza, at least partially. I think very few have a clear
conceptualization of what is involved here. When Hamas took over Gaza from
the PA, the PA forces fled or refused to fight. Yes, they are better
trained now (thanks to the US), but still cannot even protect the PA
administered areas of Judea and Samaria without considerable assistance from the
IDF.
PA involvement in Gaza would be used by the likes of Kerry to further
promote that “two state” vision, as now in theory all of the Palestinian Arabs
would be under the same administrative umbrella. But it can also work to
Israel’s advantage, as the PA has obligations, under the Oslo Accords, to
eliminate weapons not on the list of those specified as permissible by the
Accords. You had better believe rockets are not on that list, and Abbas
would have accountability for removing them.
Stay tuned here...
~~~~~~~~~~
Breaking news:
“Israeli security officials on Tuesday evening
announced the arrest of the chief of a Hamas cell, who has confessed to
organizing the abduction and murder of three Israeli teens a month-and-a-half
ago.“Hussam Kawasma, who arranged the three-man cell which kidnapped Eyal Yifrach, Gilad Sha’ar and Naftali Fraenkel from a hitch hiking post south of Jerusalem on the night of July 12, was arrested several weeks ago.
“He was
caught trying to flee to Jordan, according to The Jerusalem Post.
“The
State Prosecutor said Kawasma told investigators that he funded, found weapons,
and helped bury the bodies on land he’d recently purchased.
“Under interrogation, Kawasma admitted that the
operation, whose brutality shocked the Israeli public, received training and
funding from Hamas handlers in Gaza, according to Army radio. (Emphasis
added)
“Officials said he is related to one of the
kidnappers.
“The
other two cell members are still at large.”
Husam
Kawasma, who was a resident of Hevron, was arrested in the Arab neighborhood of
Shuafat in Jerusalem in a joint operation involving IDF forces and the
Shabak. The other two cell members are Marwan
Kawasma, 30 and Amar Abu-Eisha, 32.
~~~~~~~~~~
The IDF in Gaza captured a training manual that describes the advisability
of using human shields. See it here (and thanks to the many people who
sent me this link):
~~~~~~~~~~
©
Arlene Kushner.
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