Barry Rubin
Since the 1990s, Hizballah has defined itself along a number of
parallel lines, each of which prior to 2011 appeared to support the
other. The movement was simultaneously a sectarian representative of the
Lebanese Shi’a, a regional ally of Iran and Syria, a defender of the
Lebanese against the supposed aggressive intentions of Israel, and a
leader of a more generically defined Arab and Muslim “resistance”
against Israel and the West. As a result of the events of 2011, most
important the revolt against the Asad regime in Syria, these various
lines, which seemed mutually supportive, began to contradict one
another. This has diminished Hizballah’s position, though it remains
physically unassailable for as long as the Asad regime in Syria
survives.
The year 2011 witnessed a series of upheavals and revolutions, which
launched a long-awaited process of change in some of the stagnant
polities of the Arab-speaking world. It is too soon to draw any
definitive conclusions regarding where these changes may lead or what
the Arab world will look like when the storm has passed. Nevertheless,
the transformations that have already taken place are presenting
established political players across the Middle East with new and
unfamiliar questions and dilemmas.
Prominent among those existing political forces facing new challenges
as a result of regional changes is the Lebanese Shi’i Islamist
Hizballah movement. Since the early 2000s, the Middle East has been
dominated by a competition between the U.S.-led regional dispensation
and a challenge to this hegemony undertaken by Iran and its allies.[1]
Hizballah was and remains a key component of the Iran-led alliance,
also constituting a central sectarian player in the Lebanese context and
a champion of the idea of “resistance” against Israel and the United
States. The emerging nature of the regional upheavals are posing
difficulties for Hizballah on all three levels of its identity–as an
Iran-aligned force, a Shi’i political player in the Lebanese context,
and as the self-proclaimed champion of regional “resistance.” This
article will consider the origin and emergence of these difficulties and
their likely implications for Hizballah’s future.
The most urgent and central issues facing Hizballah of course relate
to the uprising in Syria. Prior to the outbreak of the revolt against
the Bashar al-Asad regime, Hizballah was able to adopt a stance of
vociferous support for the uprisings. This was because in their initial
phase, the revolts all took place in states aligned with the United
States and the West–Tunisia, Egypt, Bahrain and Yemen And here is the rest of it.
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