Doc's Talk: ISRAEL, AMERICA, AND A CHURNING MIDDLE EAST (PART I)

Tuesday, February 11, 2014

ISRAEL, AMERICA, AND A CHURNING MIDDLE EAST (PART I)

PolicyWatch 2206
February 10, 2014

Featuring Stephen Hadley

Watch video or read this summary on our website:
http://washin.st/NgbI80

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On February 4, 2014, former U.S. national security advisor Stephen Hadley addressed a Policy Forum at The Washington Institute after participating in the Institute for National Security Studies annual conference in Tel Aviv and the Munich Security Conference. He was joined by Robert Satloff and Dennis Ross, The Washington Institute's executive director and counselor, respectively. The following is a rapporteur's summary of Hadley's remarks; Satloff's observations were published as PolicyWatch 2204 (http://washin.st/1c4IWwq), while Ross's comments will appear as Part II.

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SYRIA ON THE MENU

Israelis are concerned less with the strategic threat that Syria faces and more with tactical interventions to stabilize the Golan front and deal with the risks posed by Hezbollah. While Israelis feel the emerging threat of al-Qaeda and Sunni fundamentalist groups drawn to their border by the Syria crisis, they do not perceive it as the most immediate problem. They continue to view Iran as a much more dramatic threat and remain consumed by the internal debate over the peace process with the Palestinians.

ISRAELI ATTITUDES TOWARD IRAN DIPLOMACY

Recent observations from the region indicate that a minority of Israelis wish the United States had never begun negotiations with Iran, albeit without suggesting an alternative policy. Yet there is more widespread concern over shaping advantageous terms for a comprehensive agreement by pressuring the U.S. administration to be tough in negotiating.

In particular, there is real disagreement between the United States and Israel on whether the redline for Iran is drawn at preventing a nuclear weapon or a nuclear weapons capability. Israelis do not want Iran to be a nuclear threshold state. But Iran is in fact already a threshold state and will likely remain one -- that line has been crossed.

Apparently, the Iranians will not accept a deal unless it involves some degree of enrichment. The details of how much enrichment is allowed and what constraints are put in place will determine how much time would remain for outsiders to detect a breakout attempt, as well as how much time would be available to respond sufficiently to such an attempt. If the current negotiations produce an agreement that provides sufficient safeguards -- that is, significant extension of the time available to detect an Iranian breakout -- then Israel is likely to accept a severely limited enrichment program over the alternative of a military strike.

PREPARING FOR SUCCESS OR FAILURE ON IRAN

If talks succeed and sanctions begin to ease, the United States and its partners should plan ways to work together to check Iran's hegemonic aspirations in the region. If talks fail, the current U.S. plan rests largely on increasing sanctions. Yet Iran's "Plan B" could trump Washington's, since Tehran would likely say to the international community: "This is the deal we offered the P5+1. It is a reasonable deal consistent with the rights of any other nation. We are prepared to enshrine what we offer in a UN Security Council resolution. Accept our offer and let us out from under sanctions."

Such a strategy would seriously split the international community and Washington's P5+1 partners (Britain, China, France, Germany, and Russia). That would be a nightmare of nightmares, putting Washington in essentially the same situation it faced in February 2003 with respect to Iraq.

POLITICAL OBSTACLES TO ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN PEACE

While there have been some positive developments, reaching a peace agreement between the Israelis and the Palestinians will be difficult because of ongoing political invective. Recent statements by the leaders of various Israeli parties show a marked stridency. For all the complaints Israelis rightly make about how Palestinians and Arabs talk about them, the way some Israeli leaders talk about the Palestinians is quite remarkable as well. Each side seizes on the other's most extreme statements to justify lack of confidence in the overall process.

This problem persists at a time when both sides have taken major positive steps. For example, Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas has changed his view of Israeli withdrawal from the West Bank. Originally demanding immediate departure, he has since shifted to a three-year transition, then to a five-year transition period, then to approving the idea of NATO peacekeepers operating anywhere in the West Bank. While the latest proposal is still not acceptable to Israel, it marks significant movement. Yet the politics in both communities make it nearly impossible for Abbas or Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu to take the initiative in pushing for an agreement.

A NEW U.S. FRAMEWORK TO CATALYZE TALKS

An American framework agreement is likely needed to move the peace process forward. While the parties need to negotiate directly, Secretary of State John Kerry is correct in assuming that he needs to put down a piece of paper as a framework for negotiations going forward.

The current framework is different from the 2003 "Roadmap" put forth by the Quartet (i.e., the UN secretary-general, the EU, the United States, and Russia). That document laid out three phases, and the last was when the parties were to negotiate the final-status issues; the document itself was very general about those issues. By contrast, the current framework will deal directly with the core issues and provide clear guidelines on how to resolve them. Having the two parties negotiate on the basis of such a document would represent a major step forward. Even if each side has questions or reservations about the framework, they would be saying in effect that this is the basis on which they will produce an agreement.

For instance, when the United States presented the Roadmap in 2003, the Israeli government announced fourteen reservations while the Palestinians accepted the document as is. The U.S. position was that it would address Israel's objections in the process of negotiations. This time, when Secretary Kerry formally presents the current framework, both sides are likely to say they are not prepared to accept it in toto and will announce their reservations. Yet if the diplomacy is handled properly, both sides will still show up when negotiations are convened.

Some people suggest that final-status talks should proceed in a certain sequence, resolving borders and security first (therein resolving the settlements issue) while leaving the disposition of Jerusalem and the Palestinian "right of return" for later. But this idea's time has either passed or has not yet come.

PRESIDENT OBAMA HAS TO BE "ALL IN"

The Munich Security Conference included discussion of the U.S. role in the peace process. Although participants expressed widespread respect for Secretary Kerry's energy and commitment, they also questioned whether the president is similarly committed.

While in Munich, Secretary Kerry noted that President Obama had said to Abbas and Netanyahu that if they are all in, then he is all in. Yet the formula should be the other way around: if they are to be all in, the president himself has to be all in.

DEMONSTRATING U.S. ENGAGEMENT IN THE REGION

The argument that the United States is still engaged in the Middle East because it is engaged diplomatically does not sell in the region, especially given Washington's clear reluctance to engage militarily in any way. Such an argument does not truly answer the question "Is America really engaged, or is it withdrawing?"

The administration could take several steps to demonstrate in deed that it is not pivoting away from the region, that it is prepared to actively check Iran's influence, and that the military instrument is not off the table:

* Continue helping Baghdad with intelligence and providing military equipment to deal with al-Qaeda in Iraq. Such an approach would give Washington more leverage to deal with Iranian influence there.

* Leave some military force in Afghanistan after 2014.

* Step up training and arming of the democratic opposition in Syria, limited to factions that are not affiliated with al-Qaeda.

* Say privately to the parties in the Geneva II negotiations (and then leak publicly) that the United States is not prepared to let Syria bleed for the next year to eighteen months. Make it known that if the talks fail, America will act.

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This rapporteur's summary was prepared by Harry Reis.

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The IDF’s Minorities in Numbers and Pictures

In honor of IDF Diversity Week, we present diversity through numbers and pictures. Each year, more and more Muslims, Christians, Druze, Bedouin and immigrants from around the world take on the responsibility of defending Israel.

MUSLIMS:

Muslim Arab Israelis are not required to draft in the IDF, but there are many who volunteer. In 2013, there were over 200 Muslims serving in the IDF and over 300 in the reserves.

Bedouins:

Bedouins are nomadic Muslims who were in Israel when modern borders were set in place and are now considered Israeli citizens. They are not required to draft but a growing number choose to enlist. In 2012, there were over 1,400 Bedouin Muslim soldiers doing regular IDF service and almost 1,500 in the reserves.

Read more:http://www.idfblog.com/2014/02/27/truth-idf-numbers-pictures/#more-34027

Are you aware that in 2013, Middle class taxes go up-significantly?

In January of next year, the federal income tax rate for middle-class taxpayers is scheduled to rise from 25 percent to 28 percent, and the payroll tax is scheduled to rise from 13.3 percent to 15.3 percent… This drives the marginal tax rate based on the aforementioned three taxes to 48.12 percent. Add in state and local property, corporate, excise, and other state and local taxes, and the percentage of each additional dollar that is taxed hovers around 50 percent… When half of each additional dollar earned is taxed away, taxpayers experience a disincentive to start businesses or expand existing ones. This leads to fewer jobs being created.

Why is HAMAS Inside Tampa Schools?

Clare Lopez

Kelly Miliziano, who teaches history classes at Steinbrenner High School in the Tampa, Florida area apparently thinks it’s perfectly OK to invite a senior official of a HAMAS-affiliated organization into her classroom to discuss Islam with her students. According to local media reports, not only has this been going on for years, but in spite of the civil and criminal proceedings that could result from such reckless negligence, the Hillsborough County school superintendent, Mary Ellen Elia, and the chairman of the school board, Candy Olson, also expressed approval for students under their responsibility to be exposed repeatedly to guest speaker, Hassan Shibly, who is the Executive Director for the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) in the Tampa area.
More...

Did You Know... Ignoring the Call to Islam will Bring Jihad

‘Conquest through Da’wa [proselytizing] that is what we hope for. We will conquer Europe, we will conquer America! Not through sword but through Da’wa.’
-- Yousef al-Qaradawi , Muslim Brotherhood spiritual leader The Arabic word ‘Da’wa’ means the “call to Islam.” But do not think that Da’wa is the same thing as an invitation to an optional holiday event. The classical Islamic doctrine of jihad mandates that enemies must be given the opportunity to convert to Islam or pay the jizya tax before it is permissible to attack them.
Clare M. Lopez

Who is being discriminated-facts tell the truth

Religious bias

Hate crimes motivated by religious bias accounted for 1,409 offenses reported by law enforcement. A breakdown of the bias motivation of religious-bias offenses showed:

65.4 percent were anti-Jewish.
13.2 percent were anti-Islamic.
9.5 percent were anti-other religion, i.e., those not specified.
4.3 percent were anti-Catholic.
3.8 percent were anti-multiple religions, group.
3.3 percent were anti-Protestant.
0.5 percent were anti-Atheism/Agnosticism/etc.

http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/hate-crime/2010/narratives/hate-crime-2010-incidents-and-offenses.

On March 31, 1977, the Dutch newspaper Trouw published an interview

with PLO executive committee member Zahir Muhsein. Here's what he said:

"The Palestinian people does not exist. The creation of a Palestinian state is only a means for continuing our struggle against the state of Israel for our Arab unity. In reality today there is no difference between Jordanians, Palestinians, Syrians and Lebanese. Only for political and tactical reasons do we speak today about the existence of a Palestinian people, since Arab national interests demand that we posit the existence of a distinct "Palestinian people" to oppose Zionism.

For tactical reasons, Jordan, which is a sovereign state with defined borders, cannot raise claims to Haifa and Jaffa, while as a Palestinian, I can undoubtedly demand Haifa, Jaffa, Beer-Sheva and Jerusalem. However, the moment we reclaim our right to all of Palestine, we will not wait even a minute to unite Palestine and Jordan."

In March 1977, Zahir Muhsein, a PLO executive, said:

"The Palestinian people does not exist. The creation of a Palestinian state is only a means for continuing our struggle against the state of Israel for our Arab unity. In reality today there is no difference between Jordanians, Palestinians, Syrians and Lebanese. Only for political and tactical reasons do we speak today about the existence of a Palestinian people, since Arab national interests demand that we posit the existence of a distinct Palestinian people to oppose Zionism."

"For tactical reasons, Jordan, which is a sovereign state with defined borders, cannot raise claims to Haifa and Jaffa, while as a Palestinian, I can undoubtedly demand Haifa, Jaffa, Beer-Sheva and Jerusalem. However, the moment we reclaim our right to all of Palestine, we will not wait even a minute to unite Palestine and Jordan."

The Arab Apartheid

Ben-Dror Yemini
In 1948, the Arab countries refused to accept the UN partition proposal and they launched a war of annihilation against the State of Israel which had barely been established. All precedents in this matter showed that the party that starts the war - and with a declaration of annihilation, yet - pays a price for it. Between 550,000 and 710,000 Arabs fled because of the war and a larger number of 850,000 Jews were expelled or fled from Arab countries (the "Jewish nakba").
Population exchanges and expulsions were the norm at that time, occurring in dozens of other conflict points and affecting about 52 million people. In all the population exchange precedents that occurred during or at the end of an armed conflict, there was no return of refugees to the previous region, which had turned into a new national state.
Only the Arab states acted completely differently from the rest of the world. Instead of assimilating the refugees, they crushed them despite the fact that they were their coreligionists and members of the Arab nation - instituting a regime of apartheid. So the "nakba" was not caused by the actual dispossession, which had also been experienced by tens of millions of others. The "nakba" is the story of the apartheid, oppression, abuse and denial of rights suffered by the Arab refugees at the hands of the Arab countries. (Maariv)

International Law and Military Operations in Practice - Col. Richard Kemp

"Islamist fighting groups study the international laws of armed conflict carefully and they understand it well. They know that a British or Israeli commander and his men are bound by international law and the rules of engagement that flow from it. They then do their utmost to exploit what they view as one of their enemy's main weaknesses. Their very modus operandi is built on the correct assumption that Western armies will normally abide by the rules, while these insurgents employ a deliberate policy of operating consistently outside international law. "

Lost Historical Moments

What Rabin’s last Knesset speech really said:repudiation of a Palestinian state

Rabin ruled out a fully sovereign Palestinian state :

“We view the permanent solution in the framework of State of Israel which will include most of the area of the Land of Israel as it was under the rule of the British Mandate, and alongside it a Palestinian entity which will be a home to most of the Palestinian residents living in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank. We would like this to be an entity which is less than a state, and which will independently run the lives of the Palestinians under its authority.”

Rabin ruled out a total withdrawal from Judea and Samaria and thus a return to the pre-June 1967 borders :

“The borders of the State of Israel, during the permanent solution, will be beyond the lines which existed before the Six Day War. We will not return to the 4 June 1967 lines.”

Rabin ruled out withdrawing form the Jordan Valley:

“The security border of the State of Israel will be located in the Jordan Valley, in the broadest meaning of that term.”

Rabin ruled out uprooting settlement blocs, like the Gush Katif bloc in Gaza (which was subsequently uprooted by former Prime Minister Ariel Sharon):

“The establishment of blocs of settlements in Judea and Samaria, like the one in Gush Katif.

AND

Rabin ruled out removing any settlement before coming to a full peace agreement with the Palestinians:

“I want to remind you: we committed ourselves, that is, we came to an agreement, and committed ourselves before the Knesset, not to uproot a single settlement in the framework of the interim agreement, and not to hinder building for natural growth.”

Rabin insisted on Israel retaining full security control of the borders with Egypt and Jordan, contrary to Israel’s relinquishment of the Philadelphia Corridor on the border with Egypt:

“The responsibility for external security along the borders with Egypt and Jordan, as well as control over the airspace above all of the territories and Gaza Strip maritime zone, remains in our hands.”

Correcting Oslo Myths-Part 2

3) Kuttab laments that the post-1993 Oslo process resulted in a Palestinian Authority "whose ministers and legislators are not guaranteed passage between Gaza and the West Bank ...."

Before free passage or other perquisites, PA leaders were obligated, among other things, to eliminate the terrorist infrastructure in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, end anti-Israeli, antisemitic incitement in schools, mosques, and communications media, and resolve all outstanding issues through peaceful negotiations. They met none of these commitments, sometimes bolstering terrorism and greatly increasing incitement.

4) Kuttab complains that under Oslo the PA got "lightly armed police ---- but no real sovereignty over the land or contiguity between our communities in Gaza and the West Bank."

Oslo agreements repeatedly were revised, regardless of Palestinian non-compliance, until the authorized number of police grew from 8,000 to 40,000. Though they were to be the only armed forces in the territories, Israeli estimates early in the second intifada put the number of gunmen - police, "security services," terrorists, and armed gangs - at 85,000. Their armament reportedly included not only heavy machine guns and rocket-propelled grenades, but also anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles.

Sovereignty was to be negotiated in the envisioned 1998 "final status" talks - after a five-year period of confidence-building. Palestinian leadership chronically undermined the process. Palestinian terrorism made the 1993 - 1998 Oslo period more deadly for Israelis than the 15 years preceding it.

The United States doesn't have contiguity between the lower 48 states and Alaska and Hawaii; territorial contiguity between the West Bank and Gaza Strip - that is, through the 20 miles of Israeli territory between them - was never promised and would destroy Israeli contiguity.

5) "Palestinians have been made to endure hundreds of checkpoints in the West Bank, an eight-foot wall deep in our territories, and tight Israeli control over borders."

The security barrier is not "deep in Palestinian territories," but rather encompasses less than 8 percent of Judea and Samaria, and is mostly a fence, rarely a wall; the land in question is not "our [Palestinian] territories" but disputed territory to which, according to the authors of U.N. Security Council Resolution 242, Jews as well as Arabs have claims; and there are no international borders, only the 1949 armistice lines with Jordan. Under 242, borders remain to be negotiated. As for checkpoints - like the security barrier and "tight Israeli control" - Palestinian Arabs precipitated these measures themselves. No terrorism and there would be no fence or tight Israeli control and few checkpoints - like before the first intifada.

Correcting Some Oslo Myths

1) In Oslo "Israeli, Palestinian and other world leaders promised that ... Palestinian sovereignty would be solidified."

No, they didn't. The 1993 Declaration of Principles and subsequent Oslo agreements outlined a process by which final status negotiations about the West Bank and Gaza Strip would be reached. The process required an end to anti-Israel terrorism and incitement and a commitment to peaceful negotiations. The PA, Fatah, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, and other terrorist groups, sabotaged the process from the start.

2) "The reality is that, in defiance of U.N. Security Council Resolution 242, which states that it is inadmissible to occupy land by force, Palestinian territories are still under foreign military occupation."
Wrong again. Resolution 242 (1967) does note "the inadmissibility of the acquisition of territory by war." It also affirms the right of every state in the area "to live in peace with secure and recognized boundaries free from threats or acts of force." There were no "Palestinian territories." Jordan occupied the West Bank, Egypt controlled Gaza. Israel did not have "secure and recognized boundaries," so retention of some of those territories was possible under 242. Israel is not a "foreign" military occupier in the West Bank but, pending final negotiations, the lawful military administrator as a result of a successful war of self-defense.

Doc's Talk