As U.S. credibility and
stature diminish in world affairs, the American president and his
secretaries of state and defense engage in eloquent denial.
Unfortunately for them, realities trump words, even persuasive ones.
At the World Economic
Forum in Davos, "where the water-cooler chatter was about America's
waning influence in the Middle East," John Kerry proclaimed himself
"perplexed by claims ... that somehow America is disengaging from the
world." Nothing could be further from the truth, he asserted: "We are
entering an era of American diplomatic engagement that is as broad and
as deep as any at any time in our history." Likewise, Defense Secretary
Chuck Hagel has called for "a renewed and enhanced era of partnership
with our friends and allies."
In this spirit, U.S. President Barack Obama has made multiple promises to reassure allies.
To South Korea, which
depends on the American "tripwire" to deter a demented dictator who
could flatten Seoul within the first few hours of an artillery barrage,
Obama promised that "the commitment of the United States to the Republic
of Korea will never waver."
To Japan, which depends
on the U.S. Seventh Fleet to deter increasingly aggressive Chinese
encroachment on the Senkaku Islands, he reaffirmed that "the United
States remains steadfast in its defense commitments to Japan," which the
State Department specifically indicated includes the Senkaku Islands.
To Taiwan, whose
security against the People's Republic depends on the American
deterrent, he "reaffirmed our commitment to ... the Taiwan Relations
Act," which requires the United States to maintain the capacity "to
resist any resort to force or other forms of coercion that would
jeopardize the security of" Taiwan.
To the Philippines,
worried about its territories in the South China Sea claimed by China,
particularly the Spratly Islands and Scarborough Reef, he reaffirmed a
commitment to the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty that provides, in the event
of an armed attack, that the United States "would act to meet the
common dangers."
To Saudi Arabia,
alarmed by Obama's appeasement of Iran in the Joint Plan of Action, he
reiterated "the firm commitment of the United States to our friends and
allies in the Gulf."
And to Israel, isolated
in a sea of enemies, Obama declared "America's unwavering commitment to
Israel's security," because standing by Israel "is in our fundamental
national security interest."
Trouble is, first, that Americans doubt these fine and steadfast words:
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Record numbers of Americans believe that U.S. global power and prestige are declining, according to the Pew Research Center. For the first time in surveys dating back to the 1970s, "a majority (53 percent) says the United States plays a less important and powerful role as a world leader than it did a decade ago," while only 17% thought American power has been enhanced. An even larger majority, 70%, "say the United States is less respected than in the past." And 51% say Obama is "not tough enough" in foreign policy and national security issues.
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More than two-thirds have a negative opinion of Obama's handling of Iran, the Mellman Group found; a majority (54%) support targeted military strikes against Iran's nuclear facilities rather than allowing Iran to develop nuclear weapons. (Only 37% prefer the reverse -- allowing Iranian nuclear weapons rather than attacking their nuclear facilities.)
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McLaughlin & Associates finds that 49% of respondents think that America's standing has been diminished during Obama's five years in office; 40% think America's adversaries now look at Obama with contempt.
Second, Pew Research
reports that half the publics in Britain, France, and Germany, as well
as a third in the U.S. and Russia, see China eventually replacing the
United States as the world's leading superpower. Two-thirds of Israelis
think Obama will not stop the Iranians from getting nuclear weapons.
Third, world leaders in countries as varied as Japan, Poland, and Israel hear
Obama's promises as unrelated to reality. Speaking for many, Josef
Joffe of Germany's Die Zeit weekly finds "consistency and coherence to
Obama's attempt to retract from the troubles of the world, to get the
U.S. out of harm's way. … To be harsh about it, he wants to turn the
U.S. into a very large medium power."
Successful "diplomatic
engagement" (as Kerry calls it) must be backed by consistency, power,
and will, not by nice words, hollow promises, and wishful thinking. Will
the Obama administration realize this before doing permanent damage?
Watch the Iranian nuclear deal for possible changes, or not.
Daniel Pipes (DanielPipes.org) is president of the Middle East Forum.
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