Today I would like to revisit
issues surrounding the election results that I discussed yesterday (with thanks
to political consultant Ruthie L).
On at least one occasion,
following the pattern of the media, I alluded to the "Center-Left" bloc of
parties as versus the Right-Religious bloc of parties. But, in fact, this
is a misleading way of conceptualizing the situation.
More accurately, there is the
Left. And there is the Right. Both of which are likely to be
ideological. And then there are parties that are centrist: neither left
nor right ideologically but drawing a bit from each on various issues and more
likely pragmatic.
The way the media had it, the
Center-Left and the Right were about equal in number of mandates
acquired (excluding the fact that the Arab parties were factored in on the
Left). This leads to the conclusion that the Right has gotten weaker --
or, conversely, that the Left has gotten stronger. Which impression
the left-leaning media are quite content to convey.
~~~~~~~~~~
But what we need to do in
analyzing this is factor out Lapid's Yesh Atid, with its 19 mandates. For Lapid
is Centrist, borrowing from each side in pragmatic fashion. And then
let's look at the results.
It is true that Likud-Beitenu
dropped from 42 to 32 mandates. But at the same time, Habayit Hayehudi has
gone from five (three for Habayit Hayehudi and two for the National
Union with which it merged) to 12. It IS 12 now, with the latest count, up
from 11.
Regrettably, Otzma Le'Yisrael,
with Arieh Eldad and Michael Ben Ari did not make the cut for the
Knesset this time around.
But among the religious parties,
Shas has moved up from 10 to 11. While United Torah Judaism gained two
mandates, moving from five to seven.
~~~~~~~~~~
On the left, Ha'Atzmaut, founded
by Ehud Barak, had five mandates in the current Knesset; now this party has
disappeared. While Tzipi Livni's party has dropped from seven to six, and
Meretz moved from three to two mandates.
Labor has gained seven seats, to
15 -- a smaller gain than Yachamovich had hoped for. And Ha'Atzmaut
was a break off from Labor. With its disappearance, Labor is likely simply
recovering old support and not actually making new headway.
And Kadima? Wow. It
has dropped from 21 mandates to two (and may not make the final cut when all the
votes are counted). Kadima might be said to be Centrist, however, so we
won't count it in on the left.
Where is the shift from right
to left that is being discussed?
~~~~~~~~~~
The shift, such as it is, has been
in considerable degree to Lapid's Centrist party. We cannot even say to
the Center more broadly, because in point of fact the Centrist Kadima lost the
same 19 mandates that Yesh Atid gained.
What we must look at then, is what
the attractions of Lapid and his party's stance were that drew a surprising
number of voters. He's young, he's a fresh face. The point has
been made that the two up-and-coming parties, Yesh Atid and
Habayit Hayehudi, are both headed by young, fresh faces.
Perhaps this is a message that the electorate is tired of the same old re-cycled
politicians. His popularity as a TV personality may also be a
factor. But what also seems to be significant is that Lapid is associated
with the middle class of Tel Aviv, and represents their
interests.
~~~~~~~~~~
And there is another point that
bears examining here. Last time around, Netanyahu drew Labor -- definitely
well to the left of Yesh Atid -- into his coalition. And, as we
are all well aware, Ehud Barak served as Defense Minister (even after he
broke from Labor and started the Ha'Atzmaut party). Barak has born
considerable responsibility for decisions in Judea and Samaria that worked
against the Jews -- regarding right to remain in specific houses, the demolition
of certain houses, etc.
We have yet to learn whom
Netanyahu will appoint as Defense Minister this time around. Coalition
politics seem to be getting in the way of his appointing Barak again. And
scuttlebutt has it that it may be Moshe (Bogie) Ya'alon of Likud. Sincerely do I
hope so -- for he is light years away from Barak and the change would be most
welcome. We don't know yet, however, and one very savvy individual I
speak with thinks it won't happen. But yet, the new appointment might possibly
be an improvement over Barak -- someone oriented less ideologically to the left.
~~~~~~~~~~
The point then, is that it is best
not to draw any facile or speedy conclusions regarding the make-up of the new
government, although there is a natural temptation to do so.
Netanyahu certainly seems diminished in power within his own party
because of the poor campaign decisions he made. This might lead to greater
influence on the part of the right wing of Likud -- which is more considerable
than before. Might.
~~~~~~~~~~
President Peres will not start meeting with the various factions until the
final and official election count is announced next week. But this does
not mean that coalition negotiations have not begun:
Lapid -- rejecting left wing appeals to block Netanyahu -- has already said
that he will tell Peres that he wants Netanyahu to head the coalition. The
prime minister has already been in touch with him and will be offering him a
prime post. Netanyahu, as of today, also reached out to Bennett, who
almost certainly will be in the coalition.
Little by little, we shall see what develops.
~~~~~~~~~~
One final word here:
MK Ayoob Kara was too low down on the Likud-Beitenu list to retain his seat
with the loss of Likud mandates. Kara, a Druze, is more passionately
Zionistic than a lot of Jews I know and I deeply regret that this happened to
him.
Credit: jssnews
~~~~~~~~~~
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Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by Arlene Kushner,
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