The Washington Times
[N.B.: This version differs slightly from the Washington Times text]
How will Iranians respond to an Israeli
strike against their nuclear infrastructure? The answers to this
prediction matters greatly, affecting not just Jerusalem's decision but
also how much other states work to impede an Israeli strike.
Analysts generally offer up best-case
predictions for policies of deterrence and containment (some
commentators even go so far as to welcome an Iranian nuclear capability)
while forecasting worst-case results from a strike. They foresee Tehran
doing everything possible to retaliate, such as kidnapping, terrorism,
missile attacks, naval combat, and closing the Strait of Hormuz. These
predictions ignore two facts: neither of Israel's prior strikes against
enemy states building nuclear weapons, Iraq in 1981 and Syria in 2007,
prompted retaliation; and a review the Islamic Republic of Iran's
history since 1979 points to "a more measured and less apocalyptic—if
still sobering—assessment of the likely aftermath of a preventive
strike."
The authors, Michael Eisenstadt and Michael Knights of the Washington Institute for Near Eastern Policy.
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Those are the words of Michael Eisenstadt
and Michael Knights of the Washington Institute for Near Eastern Policy,
who provide an excellent guide to possible scenarios in "Beyond Worst-Case Analysis: Iran's Likely Responses to an Israeli Preventive Strike."
Their survey of Iranian behavior over the past three decades leads them
to anticipate that three main principles would likely shape and limit
Tehran's response to an Israeli strike: an insistence on reciprocity, a
caution not to gratuitously make enemies, and a wish to deter further
Israeli (or American) strikes.
The mullahs, in other words, face serious
limits on their ability to retaliate, including military weakness and a
pressing need not to make yet more external enemies. With these
guidelines in place, Eisenstadt and Knights consider eight possible
Iranian actions, each of which must be assessed while keeping in mind
the alternative – namely, apocalyptic Islamists controlling nuclear weapons:
- Terrorist attacks on Israeli, Jewish, and U.S. targets. Likely but causing limited destruction.
- Kidnapping U.S. citizens, especially in Iraq. Likely, but limited in impact, as in the 1980s in Lebanon.
- Attacks on Americans in Iraq and Afghanistan. Very likely, especially via proxies, but causing limited destruction.
- Missile strikes on Israel. Likely: a few missiles from Iran get through Israeli defenses, leading to casualties likely in the low hundreds; missiles from Hezbollah limited in number due to domestic Lebanese considerations. Unlikely: Hamas getting involved, having distanced itself from Tehran; the Syrian government, which is battling for its life against an ever-stronger opposition army and possibly also the Turkish armed forces. Overall, missile attacks are unlikely to do devastating damage.
- Attacks on neighboring states. Likely: terrorism, because deniable. Unlikely: missile strikes, for Tehran does not want to make more enemies.
- Clashes with the U.S. Navy. Likely: but, given the balance of power, does limited damage.
- Covertly mining the Strait of Hormuz. Likely, causing a run-up in energy prices.
- Attempted closing the Strait of Hormuz. Unlikely: difficult to achieve and potentially too damaging to Iranian interests, for the country needs that same strait for commerce.
The authors also consider three potential
side effects of an Israeli strike. Yes, Iranians might rally to their
government in the immediate aftermath of a strike, but in the longer
term Tehran "could be criticized for handling the nuclear dossier in a
way that led to military confrontation." The so-called Arab street is
perpetually predicted to rise up in response to outside military attack,
but it never does; likely unrest among the Shi'a of the Persian Gulf
would be counterbalanced by the many Arabs quietly cheering the
Israelis. As for leaving the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and
starting an overt crash nuclear weapons program, while "a very real
possibility," the more the Iranians retaliate, the harder they will find
it to obtain the parts for such a program.
The USS Enterprise – how serious is the Iranian threat against it?
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In all, these dangers are unpleasant but
not cataclysmic, manageable not devastating. Eisenstadt and Knights
expect a short phase of high-intensity Iranian response, to be followed
by a "protracted low intensity conflict that could last for months or
even years" – much as already exists between Iran and Israel. An Israeli
preventive strike, they conclude, while a "high-risk endeavor carrying a
potential for escalation in the Levant or the Gulf, … would not be the
apocalyptic event some foresee."
This analysis makes a convincing case that
the danger of nuclear weapons falling into Iranian hands far exceeds the
danger of a military strike to prevent that from happening.
Illustration by Linas Garsys for The Washington Times.
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Mr. Pipes (www.DanielPipes.org) is president of the Middle East Forum and Taube distinguished visiting fellow at the Hoover Institution of Stanford University. © 2012 by Daniel Pipes. All rights reserved.
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