Doc's Talk: "The 'Arab Spring'"

Monday, June 25, 2012

"The 'Arab Spring'"

Arlene Kushner

I waited until the official presidential election results in Egypt were announced before doing this post. Word has just come out from the Supreme Presidential Electoral Commission that, in the presidential election run-off, the Muslim Brotherhood candidate, Mohamed Morsi (or Mursi), has garnered 51.7 % of the vote, defeating former general Ahmed Shafik, who was prime minister under Mubarak.

Morsi, it should be noted, is a US-educated engineer, and spent time in jail during Mubarak's regime.

This is the first time in 60 years that the president of Egypt will not have come out of the military.

Credit: AP

In Tahrir Square, where tens of thousands of Islamists had been waiting impatiently for the results to be announced, a cry of Allahu Akbar ("God is great") went up.

Credit: Reuters

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Egypt is still badly divided and fraught with tensions, however, and it remains to be seen how a variety of factors will play themselves out with regard to Morsi's leadership:

What sort of government he will form.
How much control the military will retain.
What his relationship with the US will be.
Whether he will work to retain the peace treaty with Israel.
Whether he will seek to regain and sustain control of the Sinai.
What his relationship with an ecstatic Hamas and other terrorist groups will be.

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That Egyptian Islamists are jubilant at the moment is not a fact that warms the hearts of Israelis. This is what Dore Gold wrote recently:

"...on May 1, 2012, an Egyptian cleric, Sawfat Higazi, who shared the stage with Morsi announced: 'we can see how the dream of the Islamic Caliphate is being realized, Allah willing, by Dr. Mohamed Morsi and his brothers, his supporters, and his political party.' He added 'Our capital shall not be Cairo, Mecca, or Medina. It shall be Jerusalem, Allah willing our cry shall be: "Millions of martyrs march toward Jerusalem."'"

http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_opinion.php?id=2105

Morsi may end up making Mubarak's "cold peace" look warm: he has made statements indicating that he will retain the peace treaty with Israel, but that he will not meet with Israeli leaders, and will make the "Palestinian issue" a priority.

He has also gone on record as saying he wants a larger military force in the Sinai. The rationale here would be the need for that force in order to gain control of the area. But this would contravene the peace treaty -- which very deliberately structured the Sinai as a non-militarized area between Egypt and Israel -- and would present a threat to Israel should matters deteriorate.

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Obama has courted the Brotherhood in a variety of contexts.

(See, for example, Jihad Watch on this here: http://www.jihadwatch.org/2012/01/obama-administration-holds-talks-with-muslim-brotherhood-speeds-pace-of-aid-to-egypt.html.

And so it's a reasonable bet that he will reach out to the new Egyptian president now.

In fact, it's even worse than this. According to the Gold piece cited above:

"...spokesmen for the U.S. State Department and the Pentagon decided [just days ago] to press the Egyptian Army to relinquish the governing role it is seeking to carve out for itself."

Obama had a hand in the situation that led to the election of a member of the Brotherhood to the Egyptian presidency. We need yet more destructive meddling?

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There have long been tensions between Egypt and the Saudis. The current situation exacerbates this, as neither Saudi Arabia nor the Gulf States are comfortable with the turn of events in Egypt.

And that leads to other information that I'm picking up, strictly unofficially, regarding enormous Saudi discontent with Obama.

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There are several issues I would like to simply touch upon here, with the understanding that most if not all require close watching and likely further comment:

There was a continued barrage of rocket and mortar attacks from Gaza over Shabbat and into last night. These included Grad rockets that were stopped by Iron Dome installations.

Presumably a "cease fire" was arranged via Egypt, but, after some hours of quiet, it was broken again late in the day today. Netanyahu made an announcement about how quiet will be met with quiet, but if we continue to attack we will respond with force. This is all so terribly deja vu.

Of course, the responses by the IAF, such as they may be, are insufficient to really stop what's happening. Routinely, when we've been in this situation -- which is totally unacceptable to Israeli civilians in the south -- I've called for an appropriately harsh response.

This time, I have not gone in this direction, simply because I understand that we may be gearing up for something a great deal bigger and so cannot afford to draw on resources here now. I will not second-guess this situation.

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Deputy Prime Minister Mofaz ended up meeting with President Obama during his visit to Washington last week. There had been no official visit scheduled. It was, rather, one of those carefully choreographed "spontaneous" meetings in which "the president dropped by." Mofaz, who was meeting officially with US National Security Advisor Tom Donilon, assured an undoubtedly delighted president that with the new coalition here in Israel (now including Kadima), there was a new window of opportunity for peace negotiations.

"A new window of opportunity." What a hackneyed and over-blown political phrase.

I ask again the question I posed the other day: Is Mofaz blowing in the wind, or has something been cooked up?

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When thinking about what might be done -- Heaven forbid! -- to entice Abbas to the table, please consider this greatly unsettling item, which I picked up from IMRA (with commentary):

"As a goodwill gesture to the Palestinian Authority (PA) and Russian President Vladimir Putin, who arrives here [Israel] June 25, military officers have proposed that Israel approve a long-delayed transfer of some 50 Russian armored troop carriers to Ramallah.

"Moscow donated the used vehicles several years ago to augment the Palestine Security Forces’ ability to maintain order in the West Bank, but they have been languishing on the Jordanian side of the border since 2010 pending Israeli technology transfer approval."

http://imra.org.il/story.php3?id=57212
Bolstering PA military capacity is a VERY bad idea and generates risks for Israel. There is a history of members of PA security forces turning their weapons on Israel.
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I'm seeing a variety of commentaries, all somewhat speculative, regarding both the enormous likelihood of an Israeli attack on Iran, and the possibility of US military support in this regard.
As I said, speculative. But worth a mention.

The scuttlebutt -- and this has been my own unofficial speculation -- is that if we do hit, it will be before the US election. This is merely a question of logic: when facing the electorate, Obama would be constrained in his response to Israeli military action; after the election, if -- may it not happen -- Obama were to be re-elected, the dynamic would be different.
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Lastly, I mention here the issue of the huge cache of non-conventional weapons (chemical and gas) that Syrian president Assad possess. As the situation in Syria becomes more and more unstable, the concern is that these weapons might fall into the hands of a terrorist group, most notably Hezbollah. The situation is being watch closely, both by international forces (including the US) and by Israel.

Either the US or Israel is very likely to act on this, should Assad be on the verge of falling -- either securing the area around the cache with military or hitting the relevant sites.
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This post, with its battery of very grim reports, begs for an up-beat ending. And so some good news from http://theverygoodnewsisrael.blogspot.co.il . There truly is a great deal that is "very good." A brief sampling:
[] Israeli men have the 3rd longest life expectancy. Only men in Switzerland and Iceland live longer. How about that?

[] Hebrew University researcher Dr. Lital Magid has designed and synthesized compounds of marijuana that reduce brain inflammation and promote healing.
[] Israel leads the world in water technology. In 2015 when water taps in Israel are turned on, 75% of the water will come from desalination plants. Today, already 80% of water used in agriculture is recycled wastewater.

[] Mosab Yousef -- the son of Hamas's founder, who had a radical change of heart -- spoke to thousands of Druze soldiers during Druze Soldier Day in Tiberias. "It is time that the neighbors will learn from Israel what the value and holiness of life is."
[] Evogene Ltd of Israel has signed a cooperation agreement with India's Rasi Seeds Ltd. to develop drought resistance rice with better crop yields.

[] A new paper, co-authored by Ph.D. student Noam Josef and Dr. Nadav Shashar of Ben Gurion University's Department of Life Sciences, on how the octopus makes itself invisible, suggests that octopi focus on a limited selection of nearby objects in order to determine their disguise. See this incredible YouTube video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JJq-wAUmkeg&feature=player_embedded .
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See my website at www.arlenefromisrael.info Contact Arlene at akushner@netvision.net.il

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The IDF’s Minorities in Numbers and Pictures

In honor of IDF Diversity Week, we present diversity through numbers and pictures. Each year, more and more Muslims, Christians, Druze, Bedouin and immigrants from around the world take on the responsibility of defending Israel.

MUSLIMS:

Muslim Arab Israelis are not required to draft in the IDF, but there are many who volunteer. In 2013, there were over 200 Muslims serving in the IDF and over 300 in the reserves.

Bedouins:

Bedouins are nomadic Muslims who were in Israel when modern borders were set in place and are now considered Israeli citizens. They are not required to draft but a growing number choose to enlist. In 2012, there were over 1,400 Bedouin Muslim soldiers doing regular IDF service and almost 1,500 in the reserves.

Read more:http://www.idfblog.com/2014/02/27/truth-idf-numbers-pictures/#more-34027

Are you aware that in 2013, Middle class taxes go up-significantly?

In January of next year, the federal income tax rate for middle-class taxpayers is scheduled to rise from 25 percent to 28 percent, and the payroll tax is scheduled to rise from 13.3 percent to 15.3 percent… This drives the marginal tax rate based on the aforementioned three taxes to 48.12 percent. Add in state and local property, corporate, excise, and other state and local taxes, and the percentage of each additional dollar that is taxed hovers around 50 percent… When half of each additional dollar earned is taxed away, taxpayers experience a disincentive to start businesses or expand existing ones. This leads to fewer jobs being created.

Why is HAMAS Inside Tampa Schools?

Clare Lopez

Kelly Miliziano, who teaches history classes at Steinbrenner High School in the Tampa, Florida area apparently thinks it’s perfectly OK to invite a senior official of a HAMAS-affiliated organization into her classroom to discuss Islam with her students. According to local media reports, not only has this been going on for years, but in spite of the civil and criminal proceedings that could result from such reckless negligence, the Hillsborough County school superintendent, Mary Ellen Elia, and the chairman of the school board, Candy Olson, also expressed approval for students under their responsibility to be exposed repeatedly to guest speaker, Hassan Shibly, who is the Executive Director for the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) in the Tampa area.
More...

Did You Know... Ignoring the Call to Islam will Bring Jihad

‘Conquest through Da’wa [proselytizing] that is what we hope for. We will conquer Europe, we will conquer America! Not through sword but through Da’wa.’
-- Yousef al-Qaradawi , Muslim Brotherhood spiritual leader The Arabic word ‘Da’wa’ means the “call to Islam.” But do not think that Da’wa is the same thing as an invitation to an optional holiday event. The classical Islamic doctrine of jihad mandates that enemies must be given the opportunity to convert to Islam or pay the jizya tax before it is permissible to attack them.
Clare M. Lopez

Who is being discriminated-facts tell the truth

Religious bias

Hate crimes motivated by religious bias accounted for 1,409 offenses reported by law enforcement. A breakdown of the bias motivation of religious-bias offenses showed:

65.4 percent were anti-Jewish.
13.2 percent were anti-Islamic.
9.5 percent were anti-other religion, i.e., those not specified.
4.3 percent were anti-Catholic.
3.8 percent were anti-multiple religions, group.
3.3 percent were anti-Protestant.
0.5 percent were anti-Atheism/Agnosticism/etc.

http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/hate-crime/2010/narratives/hate-crime-2010-incidents-and-offenses.

On March 31, 1977, the Dutch newspaper Trouw published an interview

with PLO executive committee member Zahir Muhsein. Here's what he said:

"The Palestinian people does not exist. The creation of a Palestinian state is only a means for continuing our struggle against the state of Israel for our Arab unity. In reality today there is no difference between Jordanians, Palestinians, Syrians and Lebanese. Only for political and tactical reasons do we speak today about the existence of a Palestinian people, since Arab national interests demand that we posit the existence of a distinct "Palestinian people" to oppose Zionism.

For tactical reasons, Jordan, which is a sovereign state with defined borders, cannot raise claims to Haifa and Jaffa, while as a Palestinian, I can undoubtedly demand Haifa, Jaffa, Beer-Sheva and Jerusalem. However, the moment we reclaim our right to all of Palestine, we will not wait even a minute to unite Palestine and Jordan."

In March 1977, Zahir Muhsein, a PLO executive, said:

"The Palestinian people does not exist. The creation of a Palestinian state is only a means for continuing our struggle against the state of Israel for our Arab unity. In reality today there is no difference between Jordanians, Palestinians, Syrians and Lebanese. Only for political and tactical reasons do we speak today about the existence of a Palestinian people, since Arab national interests demand that we posit the existence of a distinct Palestinian people to oppose Zionism."

"For tactical reasons, Jordan, which is a sovereign state with defined borders, cannot raise claims to Haifa and Jaffa, while as a Palestinian, I can undoubtedly demand Haifa, Jaffa, Beer-Sheva and Jerusalem. However, the moment we reclaim our right to all of Palestine, we will not wait even a minute to unite Palestine and Jordan."

The Arab Apartheid

Ben-Dror Yemini
In 1948, the Arab countries refused to accept the UN partition proposal and they launched a war of annihilation against the State of Israel which had barely been established. All precedents in this matter showed that the party that starts the war - and with a declaration of annihilation, yet - pays a price for it. Between 550,000 and 710,000 Arabs fled because of the war and a larger number of 850,000 Jews were expelled or fled from Arab countries (the "Jewish nakba").
Population exchanges and expulsions were the norm at that time, occurring in dozens of other conflict points and affecting about 52 million people. In all the population exchange precedents that occurred during or at the end of an armed conflict, there was no return of refugees to the previous region, which had turned into a new national state.
Only the Arab states acted completely differently from the rest of the world. Instead of assimilating the refugees, they crushed them despite the fact that they were their coreligionists and members of the Arab nation - instituting a regime of apartheid. So the "nakba" was not caused by the actual dispossession, which had also been experienced by tens of millions of others. The "nakba" is the story of the apartheid, oppression, abuse and denial of rights suffered by the Arab refugees at the hands of the Arab countries. (Maariv)

International Law and Military Operations in Practice - Col. Richard Kemp

"Islamist fighting groups study the international laws of armed conflict carefully and they understand it well. They know that a British or Israeli commander and his men are bound by international law and the rules of engagement that flow from it. They then do their utmost to exploit what they view as one of their enemy's main weaknesses. Their very modus operandi is built on the correct assumption that Western armies will normally abide by the rules, while these insurgents employ a deliberate policy of operating consistently outside international law. "

Lost Historical Moments

What Rabin’s last Knesset speech really said:repudiation of a Palestinian state

Rabin ruled out a fully sovereign Palestinian state :

“We view the permanent solution in the framework of State of Israel which will include most of the area of the Land of Israel as it was under the rule of the British Mandate, and alongside it a Palestinian entity which will be a home to most of the Palestinian residents living in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank. We would like this to be an entity which is less than a state, and which will independently run the lives of the Palestinians under its authority.”

Rabin ruled out a total withdrawal from Judea and Samaria and thus a return to the pre-June 1967 borders :

“The borders of the State of Israel, during the permanent solution, will be beyond the lines which existed before the Six Day War. We will not return to the 4 June 1967 lines.”

Rabin ruled out withdrawing form the Jordan Valley:

“The security border of the State of Israel will be located in the Jordan Valley, in the broadest meaning of that term.”

Rabin ruled out uprooting settlement blocs, like the Gush Katif bloc in Gaza (which was subsequently uprooted by former Prime Minister Ariel Sharon):

“The establishment of blocs of settlements in Judea and Samaria, like the one in Gush Katif.

AND

Rabin ruled out removing any settlement before coming to a full peace agreement with the Palestinians:

“I want to remind you: we committed ourselves, that is, we came to an agreement, and committed ourselves before the Knesset, not to uproot a single settlement in the framework of the interim agreement, and not to hinder building for natural growth.”

Rabin insisted on Israel retaining full security control of the borders with Egypt and Jordan, contrary to Israel’s relinquishment of the Philadelphia Corridor on the border with Egypt:

“The responsibility for external security along the borders with Egypt and Jordan, as well as control over the airspace above all of the territories and Gaza Strip maritime zone, remains in our hands.”

Correcting Oslo Myths-Part 2

3) Kuttab laments that the post-1993 Oslo process resulted in a Palestinian Authority "whose ministers and legislators are not guaranteed passage between Gaza and the West Bank ...."

Before free passage or other perquisites, PA leaders were obligated, among other things, to eliminate the terrorist infrastructure in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, end anti-Israeli, antisemitic incitement in schools, mosques, and communications media, and resolve all outstanding issues through peaceful negotiations. They met none of these commitments, sometimes bolstering terrorism and greatly increasing incitement.

4) Kuttab complains that under Oslo the PA got "lightly armed police ---- but no real sovereignty over the land or contiguity between our communities in Gaza and the West Bank."

Oslo agreements repeatedly were revised, regardless of Palestinian non-compliance, until the authorized number of police grew from 8,000 to 40,000. Though they were to be the only armed forces in the territories, Israeli estimates early in the second intifada put the number of gunmen - police, "security services," terrorists, and armed gangs - at 85,000. Their armament reportedly included not only heavy machine guns and rocket-propelled grenades, but also anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles.

Sovereignty was to be negotiated in the envisioned 1998 "final status" talks - after a five-year period of confidence-building. Palestinian leadership chronically undermined the process. Palestinian terrorism made the 1993 - 1998 Oslo period more deadly for Israelis than the 15 years preceding it.

The United States doesn't have contiguity between the lower 48 states and Alaska and Hawaii; territorial contiguity between the West Bank and Gaza Strip - that is, through the 20 miles of Israeli territory between them - was never promised and would destroy Israeli contiguity.

5) "Palestinians have been made to endure hundreds of checkpoints in the West Bank, an eight-foot wall deep in our territories, and tight Israeli control over borders."

The security barrier is not "deep in Palestinian territories," but rather encompasses less than 8 percent of Judea and Samaria, and is mostly a fence, rarely a wall; the land in question is not "our [Palestinian] territories" but disputed territory to which, according to the authors of U.N. Security Council Resolution 242, Jews as well as Arabs have claims; and there are no international borders, only the 1949 armistice lines with Jordan. Under 242, borders remain to be negotiated. As for checkpoints - like the security barrier and "tight Israeli control" - Palestinian Arabs precipitated these measures themselves. No terrorism and there would be no fence or tight Israeli control and few checkpoints - like before the first intifada.

Correcting Some Oslo Myths

1) In Oslo "Israeli, Palestinian and other world leaders promised that ... Palestinian sovereignty would be solidified."

No, they didn't. The 1993 Declaration of Principles and subsequent Oslo agreements outlined a process by which final status negotiations about the West Bank and Gaza Strip would be reached. The process required an end to anti-Israel terrorism and incitement and a commitment to peaceful negotiations. The PA, Fatah, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, and other terrorist groups, sabotaged the process from the start.

2) "The reality is that, in defiance of U.N. Security Council Resolution 242, which states that it is inadmissible to occupy land by force, Palestinian territories are still under foreign military occupation."
Wrong again. Resolution 242 (1967) does note "the inadmissibility of the acquisition of territory by war." It also affirms the right of every state in the area "to live in peace with secure and recognized boundaries free from threats or acts of force." There were no "Palestinian territories." Jordan occupied the West Bank, Egypt controlled Gaza. Israel did not have "secure and recognized boundaries," so retention of some of those territories was possible under 242. Israel is not a "foreign" military occupier in the West Bank but, pending final negotiations, the lawful military administrator as a result of a successful war of self-defense.

Doc's Talk

Monday, June 25, 2012

"The 'Arab Spring'"

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Lost Historical Moments

WHAT Golda Meir actually said...

What Rabin’s last Knesset speech really said:repudiation of a Palestinian state

Correcting Oslo Myths-Part 2

Correcting Some Oslo Myths

About Me

God Bless the USA- Lee Greenwood remembers 9-11