Something
very bad is happening with the U.S. foreign policy debate. Aside from
all of the specific problems and bad appointments, the whole discussion
is being conducted on the wrong assumptions and context.
There
is nothing easier than to argue about obsolete issues simply because
we've become so used to the reality of those that have been around for
decades. The first step is comprehending that we are dealing with
entirely new categories.
In
the old days, at least supposedly,
the battle was between those who wanted a high level of U.S.
intervention and activism--including a relative willingness to use
military force--and those who wanted to do less and were horrified
either by the use of force or by recent experiences where that strategy
had failed. For the last decade, this argument is most symbolized by
President George W. Bush’s decision to invade Iraq. In theory,
conservatives were and are gung-ho for American unilateralism and
intervention; liberals were and are more circumspect.
First,
that wasn’t entirely true. It was John F. Kennedy and Lyndon Johnson
who took
the United States into Vietnam. Kennedy also ordered the covert
invasion of Cuba. Moreover, liberals often favored a different kind of
intervention into the affairs of foreign states, pressing for more
democracy (Jimmy Carter in the shah's Iran) and opposing coups (notably
in Latin America), for instance.
On
the other side, it was the Nixon Doctrine which first made official
policy the idea that the United States should not try to be the world's
policeman but instead back friendly regional powers so war-fighting and
intervention by America could be reduced.
Second,
most of these kinds of debates were in the context of the Cold War.
Liberals and conservatives both wanted to counter Soviet expansionism or
influence but proposed different ways of doing so at times. To show how
varied were these tactics, to more effectively fight that Cold War,
Richard Nixon normalized relations with the Peoples’ Republic of China.
Liberals
often supported a "third way" approach. They'd say: We don't want
Communist regimes and we don't want right-wing dictatorships either. The
best thing is to have moderates, liberals, pragmatic reformers in
power. But if that option didn't exist, liberals generally opted for a
realpolitik status quo that combatted the Communists and pro-Soviet
regimes even at the price of supporting old-fashioned dictatorships.
Those liberals, however, would not have regarded revolutionary
Islamists as being in the desirable category.
In
effect, the Obama argument is this: In the past, the United States has
been a bully. It has supported bad governments for the people living in
those countries. Now, however everything is going to be different. We
are going to support bad governments that not only hurt the people in
those countries but also hurt U.S. interests! And we are going to give
such radical, dictatorial-oriented forces preference over helping
moderates, liberals, and pragmatic reformers!
Today,
in a post-Cold War world, the ill-conceived “neo-conservative” strategy
has now become a left-wing
doctrine of spreading democracy ironically, more often than not, by
backing anti-democratic forces. The process has become more important
than the result.
Nor
is intervention as such avoided. Bush’s basic concept has been adopted
by the Obama Administration and its supporters. Obama's intervention in
Libya was more popular than Bush's in Iraq simply because American
soldiers weren't killed, far less money was spent, and forces were not
tied down in fighting for years. Yet in substance the two interventions
were based on the same concept.
The
debate now is not whether the United States should go around the world
spending billions of dollars and fighting wars, at least outside of a
debate over whether the United States should attack Iran if that country
gets nuclear weapons. The fact that there is no chance of this
happening (it’s true, there isn’t) underlines my point. Everybody
serious recognizes the limits on American resources, the priority on
domestic issues, and past failures with such over-extension.
Nor is the debate between isolationism and international engagement.
Nor
is the issue to pretend that America has little influence in the world.
Obviously, there is a limit. But the United States could 'definitely
had a major effect, for example, on the direction of Egypt's political
change in January-February 2011 and the same holds for the post-Assad
regime in Syria today.
And it isn't even about whether to increase or diminish American power or to act unilaterally or multilaterally.
The issue is what the United States does with the influence and leverage that it does possess.
For
example, the United States gives billions to Pakistan. This is a bad
big-spending idea. The United States doesn't even need to keep troops in
Europe any more. (Now there’s a good money-saving idea!)
To critique Obama foreign policy is not to say that more intervention or starting wars is good. It is to raise
the question: Who do you help and support when you intervene on any level, even in the words of a speech?
Helping
allies indirectly--even verbally--is a way of avoiding direct
intervention. There isn't a single case I can think of that calls for
sending U.S. troops or spending massive amounts of money. On the
contrary, it is when American leaders ignore current threats will the
country end up fighting more wars and spending more money later.
The real questions revolve around things like these:
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--If
you have some money appropriated in Egypt to spend on training people
politically who do you give it to, Muslim Brotherhood or moderates?
--If
you are going to put together a Syrian opposition leadership and direct
weapons--paid for and sent by others--to Syria who do you favor being
the leaders and getting the guns?
--Do
you call for the overthrow of the Bahraini government knowing that even
though the Shia majority has genuine grievances this might result in an
Iranian satellite regime?
--When
Americans are attacked by terrorists in Benghazi do you rush to their
defense or find ways to blame America for the assault?
--Do you send armored personnel carriers to a Lebanese army under Hizballah-Syrian control?
--Do
you make a speech saying that Iranian dissidents are heroes or do you
rush to send a congratulatory letter to Ahmadinejad after a stolen
election?
--Is
it smart to dispatch billions of dollars to a Pakistani government that
gives safe haven to al-Qaida terrorists, supports the Taliban against
American forces in Afghanistan, and sponsors terrorism to murder Indian
civilians?
--Do
you see Colombia or Venezuela as the good guy? In other words, do you
hold up Venezuelan dictator Hugo Chavez as a role model or denounce him
as a corrupt dictator?
--Is
it better to make a Turkish Islamist prime minister your hero or hope
that the opposition gets it together to stop their country’s fundamental
transformation?
--Do
you keep your promise to the Czechs and Poles to put defensive missiles
in their countries—after they agree to do so at considerable
risk--or try (and fail) to make Russian dictator Vladimir Putin happy?
--Do
you cheer on the brave people of Georgia (country) defend themselves
when they are attacked by Russia or do you blame them as being allegedly
provocative because they shot back when they are fired on?
--Are you rooting for Israel or apologizing and saving Hamas?
--Even
if you try to maintain normal relations with an Egyptian government
dominated by the Brotherhood are you saying among yourselves: This is
bad. We cannot trust these people at all and we must limit the damage.
Or do you say: We must be nice to them and make them like us and they
will be more moderate.
--Do you accurately inform the American people or do you feed them misleading ideas about what’s going on in the world?
Obama
could reduce the level of U.S. spending abroad, cut back on
intervention (he intervened in Libya and is intervening in Syria, for
example, and sent troops to sub-Saharan Africa for reasons no one can
explain), and bring home American troops. That is not the problem. We
are no longer
engaged in the debates of a half-century ago in this regard.
Similarly,
no one is calling for America to be the world’s policeman. Not only are
the resources and will lacking but there is no need to play such a
role. And, besides, who wants a policeman who says the Mafia isn’t a
threat?
We
are not talking about isolationism versus engagement, multilateralism
versus unilateralism, or military responses versus diplomatic efforts.
The issue is simply this one: When you say something or do something or spend something whose side are you on?
No
matter how active or inactive you are and no matter how much or how
little money you spend, the key question is who you want to win, who do
you see as your friends and who do you see as threats.
This Obama team is on the wrong side.
Let
me put it in (American) football terms: We’re not arguing about whether
you should pass or run the ball but which end zone you are heading for.
If you are going the wrong way, you are only helping the other side and
will end up in (soccer) football terms with an “own goal.” And there is
no safety in that!
Barry
Rubin is director of the Global Research in International Affairs
(GLORIA) Center and editor of the Middle East Review of International
Affairs (MERIA) Journal. His latest book, Israel: An Introduction, has just been published by Yale University Press. Other recent books include The Israel-Arab
Reader (seventh edition), The Long War for Freedom: The Arab Struggle for Democracy in the Middle East (Wiley), and The Truth About Syria (Palgrave-Macmillan). The website of the GLORIA Center and of his blog, Rubin Reports. His original articles are published at PJMedia.
Professor Barry Rubin, Director, Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center http://www.gloria-center.org
The Rubin Report blog http://rubinreports.blogspot.com/
He is a featured columnist at PJM http://pajamasmedia.com/barryrubin/.
Editor, Middle East Review of International Affairs (MERIA) Journal http://www.gloria-center.org
Editor Turkish Studies,http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/title~db=all~content=t713636933%22
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