If we reach the following, highly unpleasant, conclusion what are the implications?
The
United States has taken a political turn which at least for the next
four years will guarantee that it does not play the role of a great
power mindful of and willing to protect its own true interests,
supporting its allies, and combating its real foes? On the contrary,
through inaction or active effort the leadership of America will take
counterproductive actions that achieve the opposite result. And there
are certain factors--radical ideological hegemony, a
weak economy and growing debt, structural social changes, the weakness
and disorganization of the opposition--that may make this a long-term.
irreversible condition.
In
other words, we don't know if America is finished as the world's
leading power but we do know that it will not take leadership and
certainly not leadership in a good direction for a while and perhaps
will never fully recover. So what do those outside the United States do
to face this situation?
There
are those readers who would contest the accuracy of this statement.
They will say that Barack Obama is a great president or at least a
decent one. There is no big problem regarding U.S. foreign policy at
all. In fact, he and his team, which now includes Secretary of
State-designate John Kerry, will be just fine or at least okay. They
will make the point--valid but irrelevant--that the United States
doesn't control everything in the world. Of course, but what about the
things it can affect?
Unfortunately,
American allies and clients cannot afford the luxury of clueless
optimism or wishful thinking. Some will grumble publicly and scramble to
limit the damage. Others will smile, praise the president, and scramble
to limit the damage. To put it another way, it doesn't matter whether
you agree with me. I'm telling you what's actually happening.
Other
readers will want to debate endlessly on the cause of the problem. Why
is this happening? Is it deliberate or due to incompetence and bad
ideology? Various conspiracy theories will be raised and time wasted on
them. To put it another way, for the purposes of this particular
article at least I don't care who or what you blame or what you intend
to do about it, I'm talking about what's happening right now.
But
here’s the real issue: things look bad. What does this mean
specifically and how can potential victims react? Let’s begin with a
very brief survey of the world scene.
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Latin
America. There are now several radical regimes in the area—most notably
Venezuela--alongside, of course, Cuba. America’s allies in the region
are dismayed that the former group (except for Cuba) gets soft, even
favorable, treatment by Washington. Fortunately, radical revolutions or
major armed insurgencies don’t seem probable. So leaders in the region
will worry a lot, be frustrated (why should we be nice to the United
States when it doesn’t help us but rather rewards being anti-American?)
but get through it. Ironically, of course, the current administration
favors policies that are sure to fail in South America so to the degree
Washington
has influence it will help sabotage the region's economic progress.
Sub-Saharan
Africa: What is truly remarkable is how the Obama Administration has
done nothing to change U.S. policy in the area. One might have expected
that given its worldview and certain ethno-racial factors and ideas in
the U.S. leadership, Obama would have wanted to make this region a
showcase of how he differed from his predecessors, as a model of
reparations for past colonialism and racism. No such luck for the
Africans. They will continue to suffer economic and political hardship
without significantly increased U.S. help. Bad but not a change from
the usual neglect. Let them eat rhetoric!
South
Asia: The pro-Pakistan policy will continue; India will be mistreated.
Again, bad but no big change. It will just be more of watching Pakistan
help conceal al-Qaeda terrorists, work for a radical Islamist
Afghanistan once the U.S. forces withdraw, and sponsor terrorism against
India as Washington pays more billions in aid money. That Afghanistan
issue might cause a crisis: Why did hundreds of Americans die there?
Someone--albeit not so much in the mass media--might ask if and when
Kabul is taken over by a new anti-American regime. Also slated to be
killed, Afghans who helped
the Western forces. They will start seeking new protectors very soon.
East
Asia: The smaller countries which want U.S. help and protection against
what they perceive as an ever-stronger China won’t get it. This will
make them very nervous indeed. Since I believe China doesn’t have
aggressive geopolitical intentions, that situation won’t deteriorate too
much in military terms. Yet in economic terms the U.S. government is
ceding a great deal to China. Much or most of Asia may become a Chinese
economic zone and that will be costly to Americans. Leaders of other
countries will scramble to get in good with the new
regional superpower as they perceive the United States no longer
matters very much. And we all better hope that North Korea doesn't get
too confident--hopefully Beijing will restrain that wacko
dictatorship--and attack the South.
Western
Europe: Honk if you love Obama. Since European leadership is still
obsessed with the EU project and seeks to varnish over rather than deal
with their deep economic and social structural problems, they will have
no big problems with Obama. He doesn’t attack them, just feeds their
addictions. We are familiar with the European stereotype of Americans as
the ignorant, irresponsible
cowboy (applied to George W. Bush) but there is far less talk about the
European stereotype of Americans as naive, blundering, would-be
do-gooders who make a giant mess (Barack Obama). Yet there are elements
of American decline that many Europeans and European leaders like. The
day may come when they think otherwise. As I once remarked to a European
ambassador, who agreed, they spent eight years trying to hold Bush back
and now are spending four years trying to pull Obama forward.
Central/Eastern
Europe: Here is a potential big problem. Russian leader Vladimir Putin
thinks he can do whatever he wants. He will continue to
turn as much as possible of the ex-Soviet now independent states into a
Russian zone of influence. If he ever decided he wanted to take over
Belarus or Ukraine, or to attack Georgia again, he knows this can be
done without any problem from America. Similarly, the regional states
know they cannot depend on American support. Have no doubt that people
in countries like Poland and the Czech Republic think about this every
day.
So
we see in Latin America, Asia, and Central Europe that American allies
have no reliable protector anymore. They are left potentially helpless
to possibly voracious local powers that are more radical
than themselves. And of course they are all hurt by the ongoing poor
state of the American economy. Lesson: Don't make the bad guys angry if
possible; move away if possible from relying on the United States.
Some,
however, will benefit from policies that ensure the export of American
jobs. But the Chinese—who seem on the surface to be the main
beneficiaries—are horrified to find themselves holding so much American
debt as a U.S. government inflates the dollar and goes ever deeper into
debt. It is a very bad investment indeed.
The
thing to watch for is if there’s a crisis. How well would the United
States respond to wars, coups, invasions, revolutions, economic
collapses? What kind of leadership would be shown in cases paralleling,
say, the 1990 Iraqi invasion of Kuwait? What would Washington do if
massive repression breaks out in Egypt with the massacre of Christians?
Or how would Obama respond if Putin were to grab some neighbor’s
territory in part or in full? You can come up with a great many
scenarios that could happen. And in each case the local leaders and a
lot of people both think and worry about such scenarios becoming real.
At
a minimum, knowing they cannot depend on U.S. help makes moderates and
democrats more reluctant to fight, more willing to concede or surrender,
and certain to despair.
In
short, this current (voluntary, not inevitable) decline of the United
States places a lot of people at risk. The question is whether there
will be crises in which bad and weak American performance
makes things worse.
And
this brings us to the Middle East where we know such crises will take
place. I don’t want to repeat what I’ve written many times. But to put
the whole thing into three sentences:
Israel,
relatively moderate Arab regimes (including, yes, Saudi Arabia), and
real
moderate opposition movements know they cannot depend on the United
States for the next four years and perhaps for much longer. To make
things worse, the U.S. government is aiding their enemies. Consequently,
they must act on their own to protect themselves.
For
the Saudis, this can mean supporting establishment (Bahrain’s
government, Lebanese Sunni Muslims) or even Salafist forces (as in the
Syrian opposition) that they feel can be turned into clients. For
Israel, lacking a chance to build real alliances with Arab states or
oppositions, it requires unilateral action.
Everyone
else—including Christian minorities and women who want equality--is
pretty much up the creek without a paddle. The democratic oppositions
(and that includes Egypt, Tunisia, and Lebanon as well as Turkey and
Iran) will have their hearts broken as they see their own countries as
lost to a long reign of even worse tyranny and their hopes for better
days dashed. Countries as diverse as Algeria, Morocco, and Jordan will
have to maneuver and use force to keep Islamists from taking over. In
other words, you may be very courageous but you will give some serious
thought to running away as far as possible, to Europe, North America, or
Australia.
It is very scary and even tragic for a lot of people.
Here,
however, is the main point I wish to communicate: Americans can debate
whether this shorter-term vacuum of responsibility and longer-term
decline is happening. Much of the world already takes this outcome for
granted.
-------------
Barry Rubin is director of the Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center and editor of the Middle East Review of International Affairs (MERIA) Journal. His latest book, Israel: An Introduction, has just been published by Yale University Press. Other recent books include The Israel-Arab Reader (seventh edition), The Long War for Freedom: The Arab Struggle for Democracy in the Middle East (Wiley), and The Truth About Syria (Palgrave-Macmillan). The website of the GLORIA Center and of his blog, Rubin Reports. His original articles are published at PJMedia.
Barry Rubin is director of the Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center and editor of the Middle East Review of International Affairs (MERIA) Journal. His latest book, Israel: An Introduction, has just been published by Yale University Press. Other recent books include The Israel-Arab Reader (seventh edition), The Long War for Freedom: The Arab Struggle for Democracy in the Middle East (Wiley), and The Truth About Syria (Palgrave-Macmillan). The website of the GLORIA Center and of his blog, Rubin Reports. His original articles are published at PJMedia.
Professor Barry Rubin, Director, Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center http://www.gloria-center.org
The Rubin Report blog http://rubinreports.blogspot.com/
He is a featured columnist at PJM http://pajamasmedia.com/barryrubin/.
Editor, Middle East Review of International Affairs (MERIA) Journal http://www.gloria-center.org
Editor Turkish Studies,http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/title~db=all~content=t713636933%22
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