December 20, 2012
http://wordfromjerusalem.com/?p=4389
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Most of us would be relieved if
the election season could be considerably shortened. The worst aspects
of our dysfunctional politics have been highlighted in this campaign,
commencing with primaries which tended to promote the lowest common
denominator, frequently involving seamy deals and even outright
corruption.
A record number of candidates
were undemocratically and summarily handpicked by leaders like Avigdor
Lieberman, Tzipi Livni, Yair Lapid or even Rabbi Ovadiah Yosef – not to
mention Shaul Mofaz whose Kadima party is unlikely to muster sufficient
votes to pass the threshold for any representation.
In such a chaotic, corrupt and undemocratic environment, it is understandable why most talented Israelis shun political careers.
Barring a dramatic political
earthquake, the outcome of this election is a foregone conclusion.
Notwithstanding his weaknesses, in the absence of serious competition,
Binyamin Netanyahu stands head and shoulders above any other candidate
and will be reelected.
The unity ticket forged between
Likud and Israel Beiteinu will guarantee that the combined list will be
the largest in the Knesset. But at this stage it seems that running as a
bloc may alienate radicals and liberals in both parties and
substantially reduce the number of seats they obtained when they ran
separately.
This may be further complicated
by the intervention of the Attorney General. I have no axe to grind on
behalf of Lieberman, but having procrastinated for over twelve years
before failing to indict him on any serious charges, one must wonder
what motivated the Attorney General, just a month before elections, to
indict Lieberman for a relatively minor offense, thus prompting his
ministerial resignation. It undermines confidence, stinks to high heaven
and warrants an investigation into the entire judicial system.
The polls indicate that the
‘national camp’ and religious bloc will be strengthened. In addition,
Likud seems to have moved further to the right with liberals like Dan
Meridor, Benny Begin and Michael Eitan eliminated at the primaries. The
national religious Habayit Hayehudi, which absorbed the right wing
settler party, is predicted to emerge as a major player in the next
government winning as many as 10 to 14 seats.
Although Aryeh Deri’s return to
Shas failed to generate an upsurge in votes, there is concern that the
Haredim may retain sufficient leverage to protect their one-dimensional
interests and prevent the government from introducing overdue reforms
relating to the draft and inducing them to productively contribute
towards the economy rather than preponderantly remaining lifelong
recipients of welfare.
The centrist and left wing
opposition parties are in a state of total disarray. Many of their
candidates are chameleons, shameless opportunists devoid of principals
or morals, adapting themselves to any party to retain their Knesset
careers.
Kadima is the role model for
immorality and crass opportunism. Its successive leaders have all been
disastrous. Tzipi Livni, the darling of the anti-Netanyahu camp, proved
to be a serial failure. Her frenetic personal hatred of Netanyahu made
her lose all sense of perspective, as she shamelessly demonized the
government abroad. She opposed Netanyahu for conceding to a settlement
freeze and then attacked him for failing to re-introduce a settlement
freeze. Her hysteria ultimately led the party to replace her with the
current leader Shaul Mofaz - who proved to be an even greater failure.
The electorate is now likely to humiliate Kadima, currently the largest
party in the Knesset, by sending all its members home.
In this almost insane
environment Tzipi Livni forms a new “Tzipi Livni Party”. After
previously leaving Kadima with debts in excess of NIS 30 million, she
had the chutzpah to cajole seven former Kadima members to join her in
order to exploit the “Mofaz law” (which she had opposed), to obtain
millions of shekels of government funds for her new party which would
otherwise have gone to Kadima. She invited scores of people - most of
whom declined - to join her list. Describing herself as a follower of
Jabotinsky, she persuaded Amir Peretz, the number 3 on the Labor list,
whom she had previously excoriated for his failures as a Minister of
Defense, to defect to her.
She also appointed as number two
on her list, Amram Mitzna, the former failed leader of Labor whose
views would qualify him for Meretz. Meir Sheetrit, who admitted he holds
Livni in utter contempt but was desperate to remain in the Knesset,
became her number 5. Livni succeeded in seducing the national religious
Elazar Stern to join her list as number 4 by allowing him to vote
independently on all issues relating to the Palestinians, making a
mockery of the political process. In a subsequent interview, Stern
conceded that he had not bothered to check whether his views concerning
the Palestinians coincided with those of his party leader.
Yet notwithstanding the support
of Yediot Achronot whose proprietor’s vendetta against Netanyahu is
obsessive, it is astonishing that there are Israelis who are actually
contemplating voting for this mad hatters party. As the election draws
nearer, maybe some sanity will prevail.
Shelley Yachimovitch is poised
to lead Labor into reasserting itself as a formidable political force
and becoming leader of the opposition. She has distanced herself from
Oslo and the delusionary leftists and post Zionists who had hijacked and
virtually destroyed the Labor party. Instead she is concentrating on
social and economic issues. The defection of Peretz to Livni will in the
long run be to her benefit. Regrettably, if her social welfare program
were to be implemented, it would lead the nation into bankruptcy. But
she may prove to be willing to join a broader government.
There are other flamboyant
players. The smartest is Ehud Barak who, recognizing that his party –
Atzmaut - might not pass the minimum threshold, announced his retirement
immediately after the Gaza conflict when his standing was at its
highest. He failed to give advance notice to the other four loyal
members of his party whose political careers came to an unexpected and
abrupt end. There are other colorful politicians who will not return
including those remaining in Kadima.
Despite lacking political
experience, if Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid party joins the government, he
could make a major contribution in relation to the Haredi draft issue.
In contrast to his late father, a former Minister of Justice who was a
Haredi basher, Yair is more tolerant and would support responsible
reform in relation to religion and state. That he selected a prominent
religious Zionist rabbi as his number two demonstrates his sincerity.
Habayit Ha-Yehudi would also
encourage the government to introduce major internal reforms relating to
state and religion, especially a gradual but ultimately universal
military and national service which would incorporate Haredim and ensure
that they become productive elements of society rather than subsisting
on welfare.
Notwithstanding this appalling
corrupt circus and despite the increased strength of the right, I
predict that the next government will be more broadly based and will
retain a consensual centrist stand which will be flexible and enjoy the
support of the vast majority of Israelis.
The writer’s website can be viewed at www.wordfromjerusalem.com.He may be contacted at ileibler@leibler.com
This column was originally published in the Jerusalem Post and Israel Hayom
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