Egypt’s
fate, I think, will not be settled by the June 16-17 presidential
election (second round). It has already been set by the parliamentary
election which has given a large majority to the Islamists as well as
the ability to write the constitution. If Ahmad Shafiq defeats the
Brotherhood candidate, Muhammad al-Mursi, parliament will simply make a
strong prime minister (appointed by the Muslim Brotherhood) and a weak
president.
But,
of course, a victory for Shafiq would be significant, indicating that a
lot of those who voted for
Islamists in the parliamentary voting—as many as one-third of them,
about 25 percent of the total population—are not eager for a Sharia
state. That could be added to another 25 percent (40 percent of them
Christians) who are anti-Islamist.
Shafiq,
a former general and prime minister, is widely seen as a man of the old
regime, Think of it this way. Suppose President Husni Mubarak had died
or been disabled prior to 2011, or that the establishment had revolted
and gotten rid of Mubarak on its own and chosen a successor. Shafiq
might have become the new president and there would never have been a
“revolution” in Tahrir Square.
So there you have it. One candidate wants basic continuity with more
freedom; the other, al-Mursi, wants an Islamist state, Sharia law, and jihad. That’s a pretty clear choice.
The
campaign is marked by the Brotherhood’s outspoken extremism and
Shafiq’s relative moderation of Shafiq. It did not have to be that way
at all. The Brotherhood could have continued to feign moderation, but
perhaps its explicit radicalism is an attempt to capture the Salafist
vote.
Shafiq
also could have played the radical demagogue making big promises but he
isn’t doing so. His strategy is apparently to play on Egyptians’ fear
of radical change and instability, the idea that crime and anarchy is
sweeping out of control with massive violence and economic collapse are
on the horizon.
Shafiq, then, is the candidate of stability.
Let’s take a typical Shafiq stump speech. It includes the following points:
--Refusing
to demagogue on the Palestine issue. “Choose a country with Cairo as
its capital, not in Palestine….Some people want Palestine to be our
capital. The Palestinian cause is in our hearts but our capital will
remain Cairo and from our capital we will strive to help Palestine
become an independent state with East Jerusalem as its capital.”
That
statement took guts for several reasons. He gives an alternative view
of the issue, saying that the Brotherhood would sacrifice Egyptian
interests, getting the country into war with Israel. While the
Brotherhood—and even the U.S.-favored but defeated “moderate Islamist”
candidate challenged Israel’s right to exist, Shafiq openly advocates a
two-state solution without any tricks. Notice he said “East Jerusalem”
and not, as Arab politicians often do, “Jerusalem.”
--Avoid
adventurous actions that might get Egypt into war. “Choose me as I
defend Egyptian security; defending Sinai which others will let slip
from our hands….Defend the Suez Canal, which others want to give to
foreigners.” Why would Egypt lose the Sinai or the Suez Canal?
Because if it got into a war with Israel and was defeated, there could
be a repeat of the situation that prevailed from 1967 and for many years
afterward in which Israel was controlling all or part of Sinai and the
Canal couldn’t function normally.
--Don’t
be bloodthirsty. He accepted the life sentence for Mubarak and a former
interior minister (not a death sentence) and six security officials
being found innocent. Egypt should not be eager to throw people into
prison but move toward democracy: “The days of political imprisonment
are gone. Rest assured your sons and daughters are safe enough to
express their opinions, even if theirs oppose mine.”
--Real
Muslim-Christian peace in Egypt. “The
Brotherhood accuses our Coptic brothers of treason and tries to stop
them from practicing their given right to vote. How do you expect them
to believe you when you speak kindly to them in press conferences and
threaten them in their homes and stores?”
--Economic
stability. “I am sure that as soon as I am elected all international
investments that are halted now will return. Housing investments,
agricultural investments, industrial investments and tourism will return
to as they were, and better,” An Egypt run by the Brotherhood is not
likely to attract foreign investment or put the emphasis on economic
progress.
The
idea that total control of the government by the Brotherhood will
moderate that
group could not be more foolish. We have already seen over the last
year how successes make the Islamists more extreme and intolerant.
Meanwhile,
the liberal reformers become even more irrelevant as they condemn both
sides or, in some cases, might even prefer the “pro-revolution”
Brotherhood against the hated “military and establishment-backed”
Shafiq. That seems to be the view of Western governments, media, and
"experts," too, even though they are gradually becoming more frightened
of the Islamists.
Of
course, even if Shafiq wins, the Islamist-dominated parliament will
really rule the country. Moreover, as we saw with violent attacks and
arson at four of Shafiq’s election offices, there will
be lots of violence from Salafists and possibly Brotherhood people.
Christians, women who exercise certain rights and secularists will be
attacked and at times killed.
The
only way out would be a Shafiq-army alliance, giving the president—who
has no political party and no organized base of support in
parliament—some muscle. Following a period of massive violence, chaos,
and economic catastrophe, that might eventually lead Egypt back to the
kind of military regime that governed between 1952 and 2011, albeit with
far more personal freedom and (possibly fixed) elections. Like it or
not, that may well be the best possible option.
But first we have to see who is going to be Egypt’s president.
Professor Barry Rubin, Director, Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center http://www.gloria-center.org
The Rubin Report blog http://rubinreports.blogspot.com/
He is a featured columnist at PJM http://pajamasmedia.com/barryrubin/.
Editor, Middle East Review of International Affairs (MERIA) Journal http://www.gloria-center.org
Editor Turkish Studies,http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/title~db=all~content=t713636933%22
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