Doc's Talk: Consequences

Tuesday, November 26, 2013

Consequences

GS Don Morris, Ph.D.

It is not new to anyone that behavior has consequences. A spectrum of possibilities exists for these consequences with multiple outcomes. If one wants to avoid a negative consequence it is imperative that an individual or a group of people carefully think through each and every action in anticipation of all probable outcomes and their impact upon people and the community. This could not be truer when applied to the world stage. The “deal” recently agreed to with Iran by the leading Western powers poses major difficulties for the entire international arena in the near and long term.

In the near term Iran has now been granted permission to become part of the world’s nuclear community-nothing can/will stop this now. We have effectively conceded Iran’s right to enrich uranium and furthermore we have agreed to let her do so forever. As of early 2013 Iran has 1000 of 3000 new-generation centrifuges installed which enables faster enrichment of uranium. In addition, Arak is not going to be dismantled and has been allowed to continue enriching uranium to 3.5 % purity.

Her current stockpile of “weaponized” high-rich uranium is only going to be treated chemically to make it inoperative for the moment and she does keep this material that can easily and quickly be “weaponized.” Rather than go on and on about these important details, I refer you to Dyer’s* article for more substantive details. My point has been made, Iran lost nothing, and the West lost it all.

We shall never regain any international support for sanctions again. We lost this leverage and are foolish and naïve to believe we would ever be able to find this support again. Why? First, the people of Iran have been hurting economically, fiscally and psychologically for some time. The only reason Iran came to the table to “negotiate” was it feared a popular rebellion by its people. Second, the EU has too much business it has regained by opening up the Iranian market again. Up to 11.5% of Iran’s monies come from the EU, now not only will business be re-stored but also oil and its price to EU countries improve significantly. The EU has lost all motivation to ever restart sanctions-they can’t afford to at this time. Thus, the EU sold its “economic soul” to the devil. It is not only the EU who has self-interests in Iran’s market!

Why do I characterize Iran in such a manner? Without question Iran is the world’s leader in supporting, funding, training, supplying terrorism worldwide. They are responsible for the deaths and maiming of hundreds of thousands of people worldwide, e.g., Syria, Hizzbollah, Hamas to identify but a few. An uptick in Sunni-Shia violence, already at high numbers begins immediately. The actions taken some days ago only strengthen Iran’s resolve. Its citizens will reap, in the short term, the infusion of 8 billion dollars and the untold millions businesses will now acquire from heretofore “frozen” dollars-food and daily lifestyle goods return to the shelves and this will tap down any immediate internal resistance. Mullahs have already boasted their victory over the West perhaps this has not been reported beyond this part of the world. This in turn reinforces their behavior. Just as a child who is caught misbehaving but then is allowed to “get away with it”; the consequence reinforces the same ongoing behavior. The West has made this fatal mistake.

In addition the state funded terrorists around the world will amp up their attacks as they, too, have become emboldened by the West’s “disintegration” in actions and in their view, in their values. This “deal” has been like a booster shot of motivation for the spread of Islam worldwide-you will see increased activity to infuse Islam into more and more of the Western world, especially in the USA. See for example this story: Hizballah hails Iran deal as "a model victory and world class achievement which the Islamic state adds to its record"

This is yet another consequence of one’s actions.

In the longer term, be prepared for Iran to become an “exporter” of nuclear weapons. This will happen and is part of their plan. The weapons will come in the form of briefcase to missile bombs. Imagine Hizzbollah, Hamas, and dozens of other terrorist groups walking around with this capability-have you heard of extortion or blackmail? I am not saying the weapons will be used but imagine the leverage these groups will now have to promote their agenda.

Mind you other ME countries are not going to wait around without their own nuclear weapons. Saudi Arabia has already indicated they will join this illustrious group of owners and they will be followed by other oil-rich ME countries who fear Iran. This consequence changes the dynamic of the entire ME and the economy of the world. Unless the USA moves rapidly now toward energy independence its economy will take a dramatic nosedive. As it is now, the EU, promoters of this “deal” will reap the outcome of higher oil prices. The EU is not now nor in the foreseeable future looking to be energy independent and its economy will nosedive causing a rift in the USA economy. China and India will turn, in part, to other energy producing countries, including Israel. China will increase its proportion of GDP to military build up in anticipation of these consequences.

The outcomes for Israel are obvious. We will, by necessity, have to increase our defense mechanisms as well as our military offensive capabilities. This will not just be in armaments. We must increase the velocity of energy independence in our off shore gas and oil fields. This activity will spawn a new wave of naval confrontations with our enemies who do not want us to reach our energy potential.

Our enemies see that the EU has for all intensive purposes abandoned us and will amp up the demonization of Israel and see this as an opportunity to turn up the legal heat. Think Hague. The USA will not support our positions regarding the “Palestinians” and unless we have courageous leaders we may yield to the increasing pressure and extortion. I shall expand these ideas in a forth-coming article.

You are such a pessimist Don, none of this will happen. You are painting a worst-case picture and the world will not allow it to happen. Do you see any other possible outcomes? My response may be surprising; my answer is yes-however, certain actions must occur soon.

End Notes

J. Dyer http://theoptimisticconservative.wordpress.com/2013/11/26/the-deal-that-will-launch-a-thousand-attack-sorties-part-1/

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The IDF’s Minorities in Numbers and Pictures

In honor of IDF Diversity Week, we present diversity through numbers and pictures. Each year, more and more Muslims, Christians, Druze, Bedouin and immigrants from around the world take on the responsibility of defending Israel.

MUSLIMS:

Muslim Arab Israelis are not required to draft in the IDF, but there are many who volunteer. In 2013, there were over 200 Muslims serving in the IDF and over 300 in the reserves.

Bedouins:

Bedouins are nomadic Muslims who were in Israel when modern borders were set in place and are now considered Israeli citizens. They are not required to draft but a growing number choose to enlist. In 2012, there were over 1,400 Bedouin Muslim soldiers doing regular IDF service and almost 1,500 in the reserves.

Read more:http://www.idfblog.com/2014/02/27/truth-idf-numbers-pictures/#more-34027

Are you aware that in 2013, Middle class taxes go up-significantly?

In January of next year, the federal income tax rate for middle-class taxpayers is scheduled to rise from 25 percent to 28 percent, and the payroll tax is scheduled to rise from 13.3 percent to 15.3 percent… This drives the marginal tax rate based on the aforementioned three taxes to 48.12 percent. Add in state and local property, corporate, excise, and other state and local taxes, and the percentage of each additional dollar that is taxed hovers around 50 percent… When half of each additional dollar earned is taxed away, taxpayers experience a disincentive to start businesses or expand existing ones. This leads to fewer jobs being created.

Why is HAMAS Inside Tampa Schools?

Clare Lopez

Kelly Miliziano, who teaches history classes at Steinbrenner High School in the Tampa, Florida area apparently thinks it’s perfectly OK to invite a senior official of a HAMAS-affiliated organization into her classroom to discuss Islam with her students. According to local media reports, not only has this been going on for years, but in spite of the civil and criminal proceedings that could result from such reckless negligence, the Hillsborough County school superintendent, Mary Ellen Elia, and the chairman of the school board, Candy Olson, also expressed approval for students under their responsibility to be exposed repeatedly to guest speaker, Hassan Shibly, who is the Executive Director for the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) in the Tampa area.
More...

Did You Know... Ignoring the Call to Islam will Bring Jihad

‘Conquest through Da’wa [proselytizing] that is what we hope for. We will conquer Europe, we will conquer America! Not through sword but through Da’wa.’
-- Yousef al-Qaradawi , Muslim Brotherhood spiritual leader The Arabic word ‘Da’wa’ means the “call to Islam.” But do not think that Da’wa is the same thing as an invitation to an optional holiday event. The classical Islamic doctrine of jihad mandates that enemies must be given the opportunity to convert to Islam or pay the jizya tax before it is permissible to attack them.
Clare M. Lopez

Who is being discriminated-facts tell the truth

Religious bias

Hate crimes motivated by religious bias accounted for 1,409 offenses reported by law enforcement. A breakdown of the bias motivation of religious-bias offenses showed:

65.4 percent were anti-Jewish.
13.2 percent were anti-Islamic.
9.5 percent were anti-other religion, i.e., those not specified.
4.3 percent were anti-Catholic.
3.8 percent were anti-multiple religions, group.
3.3 percent were anti-Protestant.
0.5 percent were anti-Atheism/Agnosticism/etc.

http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/hate-crime/2010/narratives/hate-crime-2010-incidents-and-offenses.

On March 31, 1977, the Dutch newspaper Trouw published an interview

with PLO executive committee member Zahir Muhsein. Here's what he said:

"The Palestinian people does not exist. The creation of a Palestinian state is only a means for continuing our struggle against the state of Israel for our Arab unity. In reality today there is no difference between Jordanians, Palestinians, Syrians and Lebanese. Only for political and tactical reasons do we speak today about the existence of a Palestinian people, since Arab national interests demand that we posit the existence of a distinct "Palestinian people" to oppose Zionism.

For tactical reasons, Jordan, which is a sovereign state with defined borders, cannot raise claims to Haifa and Jaffa, while as a Palestinian, I can undoubtedly demand Haifa, Jaffa, Beer-Sheva and Jerusalem. However, the moment we reclaim our right to all of Palestine, we will not wait even a minute to unite Palestine and Jordan."

In March 1977, Zahir Muhsein, a PLO executive, said:

"The Palestinian people does not exist. The creation of a Palestinian state is only a means for continuing our struggle against the state of Israel for our Arab unity. In reality today there is no difference between Jordanians, Palestinians, Syrians and Lebanese. Only for political and tactical reasons do we speak today about the existence of a Palestinian people, since Arab national interests demand that we posit the existence of a distinct Palestinian people to oppose Zionism."

"For tactical reasons, Jordan, which is a sovereign state with defined borders, cannot raise claims to Haifa and Jaffa, while as a Palestinian, I can undoubtedly demand Haifa, Jaffa, Beer-Sheva and Jerusalem. However, the moment we reclaim our right to all of Palestine, we will not wait even a minute to unite Palestine and Jordan."

The Arab Apartheid

Ben-Dror Yemini
In 1948, the Arab countries refused to accept the UN partition proposal and they launched a war of annihilation against the State of Israel which had barely been established. All precedents in this matter showed that the party that starts the war - and with a declaration of annihilation, yet - pays a price for it. Between 550,000 and 710,000 Arabs fled because of the war and a larger number of 850,000 Jews were expelled or fled from Arab countries (the "Jewish nakba").
Population exchanges and expulsions were the norm at that time, occurring in dozens of other conflict points and affecting about 52 million people. In all the population exchange precedents that occurred during or at the end of an armed conflict, there was no return of refugees to the previous region, which had turned into a new national state.
Only the Arab states acted completely differently from the rest of the world. Instead of assimilating the refugees, they crushed them despite the fact that they were their coreligionists and members of the Arab nation - instituting a regime of apartheid. So the "nakba" was not caused by the actual dispossession, which had also been experienced by tens of millions of others. The "nakba" is the story of the apartheid, oppression, abuse and denial of rights suffered by the Arab refugees at the hands of the Arab countries. (Maariv)

International Law and Military Operations in Practice - Col. Richard Kemp

"Islamist fighting groups study the international laws of armed conflict carefully and they understand it well. They know that a British or Israeli commander and his men are bound by international law and the rules of engagement that flow from it. They then do their utmost to exploit what they view as one of their enemy's main weaknesses. Their very modus operandi is built on the correct assumption that Western armies will normally abide by the rules, while these insurgents employ a deliberate policy of operating consistently outside international law. "

Lost Historical Moments

What Rabin’s last Knesset speech really said:repudiation of a Palestinian state

Rabin ruled out a fully sovereign Palestinian state :

“We view the permanent solution in the framework of State of Israel which will include most of the area of the Land of Israel as it was under the rule of the British Mandate, and alongside it a Palestinian entity which will be a home to most of the Palestinian residents living in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank. We would like this to be an entity which is less than a state, and which will independently run the lives of the Palestinians under its authority.”

Rabin ruled out a total withdrawal from Judea and Samaria and thus a return to the pre-June 1967 borders :

“The borders of the State of Israel, during the permanent solution, will be beyond the lines which existed before the Six Day War. We will not return to the 4 June 1967 lines.”

Rabin ruled out withdrawing form the Jordan Valley:

“The security border of the State of Israel will be located in the Jordan Valley, in the broadest meaning of that term.”

Rabin ruled out uprooting settlement blocs, like the Gush Katif bloc in Gaza (which was subsequently uprooted by former Prime Minister Ariel Sharon):

“The establishment of blocs of settlements in Judea and Samaria, like the one in Gush Katif.

AND

Rabin ruled out removing any settlement before coming to a full peace agreement with the Palestinians:

“I want to remind you: we committed ourselves, that is, we came to an agreement, and committed ourselves before the Knesset, not to uproot a single settlement in the framework of the interim agreement, and not to hinder building for natural growth.”

Rabin insisted on Israel retaining full security control of the borders with Egypt and Jordan, contrary to Israel’s relinquishment of the Philadelphia Corridor on the border with Egypt:

“The responsibility for external security along the borders with Egypt and Jordan, as well as control over the airspace above all of the territories and Gaza Strip maritime zone, remains in our hands.”

Correcting Oslo Myths-Part 2

3) Kuttab laments that the post-1993 Oslo process resulted in a Palestinian Authority "whose ministers and legislators are not guaranteed passage between Gaza and the West Bank ...."

Before free passage or other perquisites, PA leaders were obligated, among other things, to eliminate the terrorist infrastructure in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, end anti-Israeli, antisemitic incitement in schools, mosques, and communications media, and resolve all outstanding issues through peaceful negotiations. They met none of these commitments, sometimes bolstering terrorism and greatly increasing incitement.

4) Kuttab complains that under Oslo the PA got "lightly armed police ---- but no real sovereignty over the land or contiguity between our communities in Gaza and the West Bank."

Oslo agreements repeatedly were revised, regardless of Palestinian non-compliance, until the authorized number of police grew from 8,000 to 40,000. Though they were to be the only armed forces in the territories, Israeli estimates early in the second intifada put the number of gunmen - police, "security services," terrorists, and armed gangs - at 85,000. Their armament reportedly included not only heavy machine guns and rocket-propelled grenades, but also anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles.

Sovereignty was to be negotiated in the envisioned 1998 "final status" talks - after a five-year period of confidence-building. Palestinian leadership chronically undermined the process. Palestinian terrorism made the 1993 - 1998 Oslo period more deadly for Israelis than the 15 years preceding it.

The United States doesn't have contiguity between the lower 48 states and Alaska and Hawaii; territorial contiguity between the West Bank and Gaza Strip - that is, through the 20 miles of Israeli territory between them - was never promised and would destroy Israeli contiguity.

5) "Palestinians have been made to endure hundreds of checkpoints in the West Bank, an eight-foot wall deep in our territories, and tight Israeli control over borders."

The security barrier is not "deep in Palestinian territories," but rather encompasses less than 8 percent of Judea and Samaria, and is mostly a fence, rarely a wall; the land in question is not "our [Palestinian] territories" but disputed territory to which, according to the authors of U.N. Security Council Resolution 242, Jews as well as Arabs have claims; and there are no international borders, only the 1949 armistice lines with Jordan. Under 242, borders remain to be negotiated. As for checkpoints - like the security barrier and "tight Israeli control" - Palestinian Arabs precipitated these measures themselves. No terrorism and there would be no fence or tight Israeli control and few checkpoints - like before the first intifada.

Correcting Some Oslo Myths

1) In Oslo "Israeli, Palestinian and other world leaders promised that ... Palestinian sovereignty would be solidified."

No, they didn't. The 1993 Declaration of Principles and subsequent Oslo agreements outlined a process by which final status negotiations about the West Bank and Gaza Strip would be reached. The process required an end to anti-Israel terrorism and incitement and a commitment to peaceful negotiations. The PA, Fatah, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, and other terrorist groups, sabotaged the process from the start.

2) "The reality is that, in defiance of U.N. Security Council Resolution 242, which states that it is inadmissible to occupy land by force, Palestinian territories are still under foreign military occupation."
Wrong again. Resolution 242 (1967) does note "the inadmissibility of the acquisition of territory by war." It also affirms the right of every state in the area "to live in peace with secure and recognized boundaries free from threats or acts of force." There were no "Palestinian territories." Jordan occupied the West Bank, Egypt controlled Gaza. Israel did not have "secure and recognized boundaries," so retention of some of those territories was possible under 242. Israel is not a "foreign" military occupier in the West Bank but, pending final negotiations, the lawful military administrator as a result of a successful war of self-defense.

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