When word came that Secretary of State John Kerry was winging his way back to Geneva, there was little doubt a deal had
been reached with Iran for some nuclear concessions in exchange for a
modicum of sanctions relief. Reaction was predictable from most
quarters, with those concerned about Iran’s bona fides slamming the de
minimis requirements of the agreement — particularly a failure to secure
Iran’s agreement to cease all enrichment, a key demand of all relevant
U.N. Security Council resolutions. Naturally, both Iran’s and Obama’s
friends in Washington were equally quick to praise the “historic
agreement”.
The good in the dribs and drabs reported about this agreement are straightforward:
- a halt of work at Arak, the heavy water reactor that provides Iran a second route to a bomb
- A suspension of installation of new centrifuges
- Intrusive new inspections
- A cap on the stockpile of enriched uranium
The bad is in what is left out:
- all enrichment
- cooperation in revealing details of Iran’s military work at Parchin
- Construction (though not installation) of new centrifuges
- Reversal of nuclear progress
Chatting last week with a prominent nuclear expert in Washington (a
Democrat), we talked about the problems with the then prospective deal.
Ironically, we were in complete agreement:
- Phased deals such as this buy more time for the would-be nuclear state to advance its program while giving key concessions on the sanctions front.
- Sequenced agreements of this kind don’t work (viz: North Korea).
- The administration was too desperate for a deal.
- There will be no phase two.
In reality, Iran has given nothing of substance other than a
“pause” in its program. The administration has left the hard work to
the IAEA, including Parchin and verification. Any hint of suspicion
that Iran will continue work at an as yet undisclosed secret site was
missing. In return, while the concessions to Iran on sanctions are in
and of themselves not dramatic, the reversal in momentum for sanctions
and the loss of the psychology of impenetrable sanctions is of
immeasurable value to Tehran. Dealmakers will be back, letters of
credit will once again be available, and it will be the beginning of the
end of international cooperation on sanctions. Worse yet, the
administration will be loath to call Iran for failing to measure up to
the letter of the agreement for fear of collapse, with all the
concomitant loss of reputation to the President. The administration,
having once been an advocate for an end to Iran’s nuclear program, will
become an advocate for Iran. Don’t believe it? Look at last week’s
outrageous comments by
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei about Israel. Where was Kerry? Look
at the administration’s opposition to new sanctions on the Hill.
In short, it is wrong to say Iran has given nothing; Iran has given
something, but nothing that halts its progress towards a nuclear
weapons capability. It has simply pushed back a break-out date which
was immaterial to Iran, which has little intention of immediate
break-out in any case. In return, it has earned something far more
valuable than the concessions it granted: an advocate for the current
regime in the White House.
One last thing: AP is reporting secret
talks have been going on between the White House and Iran for months
now. We’ve heard this repeatedly. What are they talking about? In
addition to the nuclear issue, I hear they’re talking about selling out
Assad in favor of a new Syrian government that looks exactly like the
current government, minus Assad. Hezbollah? Nothing. Terrorism?
Nothing. Watch out.
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