Tuesday, November 26, 2013

World saved? Hardly. More a final countdown to nuclear blackmail and war

Melanie Phillips

Geneva negotiations about Iran's nuclear capabilities, November 2013One by one, the commentators have today fallen like dominoes. Presented with the transparent victory by Iran over the rest of the world at Geneva, they have eagerly swallowed the line they have been fed that this is a ‘historic’ step towards peace with Iran whose nuclear wings have now been clipped.

Journalists who would normally ask themselves ‘why is this lying bastard lying to me?’ if a western politician merely said ‘hello, nice day isn’t it’ (apart, of course, from The One) have suspended all independent powers of observation and thought over this risible farce of a deal.

Viewing it through the prism of ‘after-Iraq-don’t-give me-any-more-lies-about-Islamic-terror/anything-that-sounds-like-compromise-and-lets-us-put-our-heads-back-in-the-sand-must-be-good/war-with-Iran-is-sooo-much-more-terrifying-than-a-nuclear-Iran/new-Iranian-President-Rouhani-sounds-charming-and-moderate-so-phew!-we-can-believe-anything-that-he-says/anything-Benjamin-Netanyahu-is-against-I’m-for’, the chattering classes have apparently decided that yup, this really is peace in our time and any comparison with you-know-what in 1938 is well, just hysterical, and anyway we’ve had it up to here with Israel and they can just shut up.
Earlier today, I had a discussion with one such domino, Lord Phillips of Sudbury, on BBC Radio’s Jeremy Vine show. You can listen here:

or here  (1 hour, 37 minutes in, seven days only). But for your own assistance when facing someone who thinks this deal has saved the world rather than provided the final countdown to genocidal nuclear blackmail and war, here is my cut-out-and-keep guide to why the Geneva deal all but guarantees that the principal source of terrorism in the world today will now develop nuclear weapons for its monstrous purposes.
1)   The deal is not designed to stop the Iranian bomb.  It is said rather to be an interim agreement designed to boost confidence. President Obama and Secretary of State Kerry promise a subsequent permanent agreement which will disarm Iran of its nuclear and military capabilities. So sanctions are currently being lifted in exchange for… what exactly? Nothing of any significance whatever.
2)   The Americans admit that, even in the best-case scenario, the deal will lengthen the Iranian bomb-making process by only a few months. And then what?
3)   However much Kerry tries to deny it, the deal inescapably accepts that Iran will enrich uranium in a ‘mutually defined enrichment programme’.
4)   It thus unilaterally chucks onto the scrap-heap the UN Security Council binding resolutions making any easing of sanctions dependent upon Iran ceasing uranium enrichment altogether.
5)   The vaunted slowdown, by reducing uranium enrichment from 20 per cent to five per cent, can be easily reversed.
6)   The deal does not destroy one single centrifuge. Some 10,000 of them will continue to spin and enrich the uranium needed for the bomb. According to some experts, Iran already possesses enough enriched uranium to make 4-5 Hiroshima-sized nuclear bombs.
7)   The slowdown still gives Iran yet more of the gift Obama has already so lavishly bestowed upon it over the past five years – the time it needs to arrive at nuclear weapons breakout capability.
8)   The deal enables Iran to remain on the ‘nuclear threshold’, enabling it to acquire the material it needs for a nuclear weapon within six to eight weeks. To reduce that break-out threat, Iran’s nuclear programme must instead be heavily put back.
9)   The last-minute, French-imposed pause in the assembly of the heavy water reactor at Arak (and the US was originally willing to do a deal without any change at all at Arak) will still not prevent Iran being able to use Arak to produce a plutonium-based nuclear weapon.
10)  Considering the spotty track record of the IAEA inspectors and the sophisticated guile of the Iranians, not to mention the likely existence of more secret nuclear sites than have been detected so far, the prospects of IAEA inspections keeping Iran honest must be considered slim indeed.
11)  The absence of any requirement to divulge its programme to manufacture explosive devices and warheads means that Iran can complete the development of its nuclear weapon.
12)  The deal starts to weaken the sanctions regime unconditional upon Iran delivering anything at all. It thus throws away the one piece of leverage the west finally developed against the regime and removes the incentive for Iran to keep to the terms of the deal. For if Iran could get something for nothing from the US, UK and EU this time, it can be confident that Obama, Ashton and Cameron are so desperate for any deal that it will be able to do so again and again.
13)  Obama has now conclusively demonstrated that he will never attack Iran. His real target in doing this patently absurd deal was not Iran at all, but Israel.  This is because Obama clearly regards the biggest threat around to be not the ‘unthinkable’ nuclear-arming of war-on-west-waging, genocidal Iran but an attack on Iran by its putative victims, to prevent that genocide and avert nuclear blackmail and worse against the US and the rest of the west. Iran now knows it can proceed with impunity to the bomb because Obama’s US has become a paper tiger.
14)  Rouhani is not moderate at all, but a supremely wily negotiator who understands all too well the death-wish of the appeasement-driven west. He has boasted in the past of duping it in order to buy time for Iran to continue to build the bomb. In time, he will similarly boast of this deal, too.
15) Rouhani is in any event not the main guy. The west was negotiating with a mere puppet. The only person who matters in Iran is the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei.
10) Khamenei’s regime remains committed to wiping Israel ‘off the page of history’ because of the regime’s deranged, psychopathic hatred of Jews whom it regards as not human at all but, in Khamenei’s recent words, like ‘rabid dogs’.
11) The fact that the US, UK and EU casually dismissed such chilling words suggests that they are similarly indifferent to what history tells us is the terrible fate that follows from such words, unless those who utter them are stopped.
But wait.
After the deal was signed, the White House said that
‘Israel has ‘good reason to be skeptical about Iran’s intentions…’
Think about that for a moment. Being ‘sceptical about Iran’s intentions’ means you think it is lying about those intentions. If the White House thinks Israel has good reason to believe Iran is lying, it follows that the White House must also think Iran is lying. If the White House thinks Iran is lying, how could it have done this ‘confidence building’ deal and part-lifted the sanctions regime imposed upon this lying, west-attacking, Jew-hating regime?
The closing words of George Orwell’s Animal Farm come irresistibly to mind:
‘The creatures outside looked from pig to man, and from man to pig, and from pig to man again; but already it was impossible to say which was which’.

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