Doc's Talk: Saudi Arabia is First on the Iranian Nuke Hit List

Saturday, November 02, 2013

Saudi Arabia is First on the Iranian Nuke Hit List

Why a nuclear Iran is the world's catastrophic problem, not just Israel’s. Livni has missed the point.

Mark Langfan

The writer, who writes on security issues, has created an original educational 3d Topographic Map System of Israel to facilitate clear understanding of the dangers facing Israel and its water supply. It has been studied by US lawmakers and can be seen at www.marklangfan.com.

On October 23, 2013, Justice Minister Tzipi Livni stated, in English, responding to a question about Gulf Sunni States' cooperation with Israel on stopping Iran's nuclear bomb, "In order to prevent Iran from having a nuclear weapon, we need to cooperate with those (who) understand that Iran is a threat to them as well, but unfortunately, the open conflict with the Palestinians makes it impossible or very difficult for them to act with Israel."

Livni's "strategic" thinking can be summed up as follows: The Saudi princes will allow Israel to save the Sunnis from Shiite decimation and also protect the trillions of Saudi oil-reserves from the Shiite-Iranian nukes, if and only if, Israel first commits suicide with the creation of a Palestinian state. In short, to fit Livni's delusion about the importance of the Palestinian Peace process, Livni has to distort reality and claim that the Saudis care more for the Palestinians (who supported Saddam when he invaded Kuwait) than themeselves.

Livni should look at the map. The eastern provinces of Saudi Arabia, which hold all of her oil reserves, are sitting right next door to Iran. There is a Shiite majority in those Saudi provinces. Once Iran gains a nuclear arsenal, who is Iran going to attack first: a hardened Israel that might have a second-strike nuke or a topographically defenseless Saudi Arabia with a totally ineffective army? Of course, Iran will roll over Saudi Arabia and control the world’s oil before it tangles with the Israelis.
The Persian Gulf Black Gold Triangle holds 56% of the world’s known oil reserves. With an Iranian nuclear umbrella, America would never, and could never, reverse a conventional Iranian attack on Saudi Arabia the way it was able to do against the non-nuclear Saddam Hussein when he invaded Kuwait. Saudi Arabia, not Israel, is first on the Iranian nuke hit list.
For the world, Iran's occupation of eastern Saudi Arabia will turn OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) into IRAN-PEC with a nuclear umbrella and an Iranian monopoly on close to 60% of the world's oil supply. It will stand for IRAN Petroleum Exporting Country, that last word in the singular. Hence, a nuclear Iran is the world's catastrophic problem, not just Israel’s problem.
Livni's comments can be put in perspective by reading the recent New York Times report about Saudi fears in the article entitled "Criticism of United States' Mideast Policy Increasingly Comes From Allies", which claimed that "Saudi officials have made it clear they are frustrated with the Obama administration — not just for its reluctance to do more to aid the rebels fighting President Bashar al-Assad of Syria, and not just for its willingness to engage Iran in negotiations, but also for its refusal to endorse the Egyptian military’s ouster of President Mohamed Morsi and the crackdown on Mr. Morsi’s Muslim Brotherhood party."
Nowhere in the entire article is there a single reference or hint to the Palestinian conflict as a factor in Saudi criticism of US policy.
Prince Turki, a member of the Saudi royal family and former Saudi Intelligence Minister, was even more "vehement" in his directly quoted remarks:

“The current charade of international control over Bashar’s chemical arsenal would be funny if it were not so blatantly perfidious, and designed not only to give Mr. Obama an opportunity to back down but also to help Assad to butcher his people.”

The Times article cited the three policies in which Obama has gone along with the Iranian position, and rejected the Saudi position:

1. Obama's negotiation with Iran on its Nuke program.

2. Obama's failure to oust Iran's Syrian-puppet Assad or arm the Syrian rebels.

3. Obama's topple of Mubarak, support of the Muslim brotherhood, and current attacks on Egypt's Saudi-supported Sisi.

On point after point, Israel supports the Saudi position because it is in line with Israel's interests. And through the prism of each of these points, the creation of a Palestinian Arab state in the "West Bank", far from helping the Saudis, is against their strategic interests.
Livni is underestimating the Saudis. For the Saudis not to work with the Israelis on Iran would be suicidal for that Sunni country. Here is what Livni's PA state-Iran nukes linkage means for them:
First, the Livni formula for "peace" has actually strengthened Iran's hand at the expense of the Saudis. Israel's retreat from Gaza, which she supported, resulted in the fact that Iran now controls Gaza as an Iranian forward-operating-base ("FOB"), not the Saudis. Israel's retreat from Gaza bolstered Iran's "Palestinian Liberation" credentials at the expense of the Saudis.
An Israeli retreat from Judea and Samaria today in favor of Abbas will bring an Iranian victory to Hamas tomorrow. The Saudis want to liquidate the Iranian-Assad Syria, not create a new Iranian-Hamas state.

Second, the Saudis also know that Hamas will smuggle all manners of rockets into "West Bank" state like it did in Gaza. It might even send chemical 122mm katyushas like the ones that massacred thousands of Muslims in Syria. If Israel tried to attack Iran at that point, it would be rocketed from Gaza, South Lebanon and the "West Bank", the latter into the soft under-belly of the Tel Aviv-Netanya corridor. Therefore, instead of enabling Israel's position against Iran, a PA state will paralyze Israel's military projection to Iran. This is the exact opposite of what the Saudis need.

Third, just as Hamas-Iranian Gaza actively aided the Muslim Brotherhood to topple Mubarak, the Saudis and Jordanians know a Hamas-Iranian "West Bank" State will wipe Jordanian King Abdullah off the face of the earth. Most of the Jordanians are Palestinian Arabs and will happily join an expanded PA state, stripping the Saudis of another key ally that actually borders Saudi Arabia to replace it with a sworn enemy.
The Saudis and Jordanians can surely count on President Obama to help Jordan's King Abdullah every bit as much as Obama "helped" Hosni Mubarak when the Jordanian Muslim brotherhood rises against him. The Saudis now understand that Obama wants a Muslim Brotherhood Jordan as much as he seems to want a Muslim Brotherhood Egypt.
Acually, however, Livni has unconsciously insured there will be no Palestinian deal. By publicly linking the Palestinian Arab issue with Iran, Livni has exponentially inflated the Palestinian's minimal expectations of any deal. In addition, if the PA believes there is Israeli urgency to reach a deal in order to attack Iran, the PA will delay.
In essence, Livni has convinced the Palestinian Arabs that they are doing Israel a favor because, according to her logic, the Palestinian Arabs would be freeing the Gulf States to help Israel on Iran.
And,the flip-side of Livni's unfortunate statements is that the Iranian's will blame the Saudis for forcing the Palestinian Arabs to surrender their Muslim rights if they give in on anything . So, in the wake of any deal, incendiary Iranian public statements will whip the Shiite majorities in Saudi’s eastern provinces into such a frenzy that Iran might not even need a nuke to occupy the Saudi Persian Gulf oil fields.

The Saudis have realized that Obama will allow Iran to gain nuclear weapons and that Israel is the only effective and indispensable ally against Iran's developing nukes. Livni, unfortunately for Israel, has not.

For more information, please visit www.marklangfan.com

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The IDF’s Minorities in Numbers and Pictures

In honor of IDF Diversity Week, we present diversity through numbers and pictures. Each year, more and more Muslims, Christians, Druze, Bedouin and immigrants from around the world take on the responsibility of defending Israel.

MUSLIMS:

Muslim Arab Israelis are not required to draft in the IDF, but there are many who volunteer. In 2013, there were over 200 Muslims serving in the IDF and over 300 in the reserves.

Bedouins:

Bedouins are nomadic Muslims who were in Israel when modern borders were set in place and are now considered Israeli citizens. They are not required to draft but a growing number choose to enlist. In 2012, there were over 1,400 Bedouin Muslim soldiers doing regular IDF service and almost 1,500 in the reserves.

Read more:http://www.idfblog.com/2014/02/27/truth-idf-numbers-pictures/#more-34027

Are you aware that in 2013, Middle class taxes go up-significantly?

In January of next year, the federal income tax rate for middle-class taxpayers is scheduled to rise from 25 percent to 28 percent, and the payroll tax is scheduled to rise from 13.3 percent to 15.3 percent… This drives the marginal tax rate based on the aforementioned three taxes to 48.12 percent. Add in state and local property, corporate, excise, and other state and local taxes, and the percentage of each additional dollar that is taxed hovers around 50 percent… When half of each additional dollar earned is taxed away, taxpayers experience a disincentive to start businesses or expand existing ones. This leads to fewer jobs being created.

Why is HAMAS Inside Tampa Schools?

Clare Lopez

Kelly Miliziano, who teaches history classes at Steinbrenner High School in the Tampa, Florida area apparently thinks it’s perfectly OK to invite a senior official of a HAMAS-affiliated organization into her classroom to discuss Islam with her students. According to local media reports, not only has this been going on for years, but in spite of the civil and criminal proceedings that could result from such reckless negligence, the Hillsborough County school superintendent, Mary Ellen Elia, and the chairman of the school board, Candy Olson, also expressed approval for students under their responsibility to be exposed repeatedly to guest speaker, Hassan Shibly, who is the Executive Director for the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) in the Tampa area.
More...

Did You Know... Ignoring the Call to Islam will Bring Jihad

‘Conquest through Da’wa [proselytizing] that is what we hope for. We will conquer Europe, we will conquer America! Not through sword but through Da’wa.’
-- Yousef al-Qaradawi , Muslim Brotherhood spiritual leader The Arabic word ‘Da’wa’ means the “call to Islam.” But do not think that Da’wa is the same thing as an invitation to an optional holiday event. The classical Islamic doctrine of jihad mandates that enemies must be given the opportunity to convert to Islam or pay the jizya tax before it is permissible to attack them.
Clare M. Lopez

Who is being discriminated-facts tell the truth

Religious bias

Hate crimes motivated by religious bias accounted for 1,409 offenses reported by law enforcement. A breakdown of the bias motivation of religious-bias offenses showed:

65.4 percent were anti-Jewish.
13.2 percent were anti-Islamic.
9.5 percent were anti-other religion, i.e., those not specified.
4.3 percent were anti-Catholic.
3.8 percent were anti-multiple religions, group.
3.3 percent were anti-Protestant.
0.5 percent were anti-Atheism/Agnosticism/etc.

http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/hate-crime/2010/narratives/hate-crime-2010-incidents-and-offenses.

On March 31, 1977, the Dutch newspaper Trouw published an interview

with PLO executive committee member Zahir Muhsein. Here's what he said:

"The Palestinian people does not exist. The creation of a Palestinian state is only a means for continuing our struggle against the state of Israel for our Arab unity. In reality today there is no difference between Jordanians, Palestinians, Syrians and Lebanese. Only for political and tactical reasons do we speak today about the existence of a Palestinian people, since Arab national interests demand that we posit the existence of a distinct "Palestinian people" to oppose Zionism.

For tactical reasons, Jordan, which is a sovereign state with defined borders, cannot raise claims to Haifa and Jaffa, while as a Palestinian, I can undoubtedly demand Haifa, Jaffa, Beer-Sheva and Jerusalem. However, the moment we reclaim our right to all of Palestine, we will not wait even a minute to unite Palestine and Jordan."

In March 1977, Zahir Muhsein, a PLO executive, said:

"The Palestinian people does not exist. The creation of a Palestinian state is only a means for continuing our struggle against the state of Israel for our Arab unity. In reality today there is no difference between Jordanians, Palestinians, Syrians and Lebanese. Only for political and tactical reasons do we speak today about the existence of a Palestinian people, since Arab national interests demand that we posit the existence of a distinct Palestinian people to oppose Zionism."

"For tactical reasons, Jordan, which is a sovereign state with defined borders, cannot raise claims to Haifa and Jaffa, while as a Palestinian, I can undoubtedly demand Haifa, Jaffa, Beer-Sheva and Jerusalem. However, the moment we reclaim our right to all of Palestine, we will not wait even a minute to unite Palestine and Jordan."

The Arab Apartheid

Ben-Dror Yemini
In 1948, the Arab countries refused to accept the UN partition proposal and they launched a war of annihilation against the State of Israel which had barely been established. All precedents in this matter showed that the party that starts the war - and with a declaration of annihilation, yet - pays a price for it. Between 550,000 and 710,000 Arabs fled because of the war and a larger number of 850,000 Jews were expelled or fled from Arab countries (the "Jewish nakba").
Population exchanges and expulsions were the norm at that time, occurring in dozens of other conflict points and affecting about 52 million people. In all the population exchange precedents that occurred during or at the end of an armed conflict, there was no return of refugees to the previous region, which had turned into a new national state.
Only the Arab states acted completely differently from the rest of the world. Instead of assimilating the refugees, they crushed them despite the fact that they were their coreligionists and members of the Arab nation - instituting a regime of apartheid. So the "nakba" was not caused by the actual dispossession, which had also been experienced by tens of millions of others. The "nakba" is the story of the apartheid, oppression, abuse and denial of rights suffered by the Arab refugees at the hands of the Arab countries. (Maariv)

International Law and Military Operations in Practice - Col. Richard Kemp

"Islamist fighting groups study the international laws of armed conflict carefully and they understand it well. They know that a British or Israeli commander and his men are bound by international law and the rules of engagement that flow from it. They then do their utmost to exploit what they view as one of their enemy's main weaknesses. Their very modus operandi is built on the correct assumption that Western armies will normally abide by the rules, while these insurgents employ a deliberate policy of operating consistently outside international law. "

Lost Historical Moments

What Rabin’s last Knesset speech really said:repudiation of a Palestinian state

Rabin ruled out a fully sovereign Palestinian state :

“We view the permanent solution in the framework of State of Israel which will include most of the area of the Land of Israel as it was under the rule of the British Mandate, and alongside it a Palestinian entity which will be a home to most of the Palestinian residents living in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank. We would like this to be an entity which is less than a state, and which will independently run the lives of the Palestinians under its authority.”

Rabin ruled out a total withdrawal from Judea and Samaria and thus a return to the pre-June 1967 borders :

“The borders of the State of Israel, during the permanent solution, will be beyond the lines which existed before the Six Day War. We will not return to the 4 June 1967 lines.”

Rabin ruled out withdrawing form the Jordan Valley:

“The security border of the State of Israel will be located in the Jordan Valley, in the broadest meaning of that term.”

Rabin ruled out uprooting settlement blocs, like the Gush Katif bloc in Gaza (which was subsequently uprooted by former Prime Minister Ariel Sharon):

“The establishment of blocs of settlements in Judea and Samaria, like the one in Gush Katif.

AND

Rabin ruled out removing any settlement before coming to a full peace agreement with the Palestinians:

“I want to remind you: we committed ourselves, that is, we came to an agreement, and committed ourselves before the Knesset, not to uproot a single settlement in the framework of the interim agreement, and not to hinder building for natural growth.”

Rabin insisted on Israel retaining full security control of the borders with Egypt and Jordan, contrary to Israel’s relinquishment of the Philadelphia Corridor on the border with Egypt:

“The responsibility for external security along the borders with Egypt and Jordan, as well as control over the airspace above all of the territories and Gaza Strip maritime zone, remains in our hands.”

Correcting Oslo Myths-Part 2

3) Kuttab laments that the post-1993 Oslo process resulted in a Palestinian Authority "whose ministers and legislators are not guaranteed passage between Gaza and the West Bank ...."

Before free passage or other perquisites, PA leaders were obligated, among other things, to eliminate the terrorist infrastructure in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, end anti-Israeli, antisemitic incitement in schools, mosques, and communications media, and resolve all outstanding issues through peaceful negotiations. They met none of these commitments, sometimes bolstering terrorism and greatly increasing incitement.

4) Kuttab complains that under Oslo the PA got "lightly armed police ---- but no real sovereignty over the land or contiguity between our communities in Gaza and the West Bank."

Oslo agreements repeatedly were revised, regardless of Palestinian non-compliance, until the authorized number of police grew from 8,000 to 40,000. Though they were to be the only armed forces in the territories, Israeli estimates early in the second intifada put the number of gunmen - police, "security services," terrorists, and armed gangs - at 85,000. Their armament reportedly included not only heavy machine guns and rocket-propelled grenades, but also anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles.

Sovereignty was to be negotiated in the envisioned 1998 "final status" talks - after a five-year period of confidence-building. Palestinian leadership chronically undermined the process. Palestinian terrorism made the 1993 - 1998 Oslo period more deadly for Israelis than the 15 years preceding it.

The United States doesn't have contiguity between the lower 48 states and Alaska and Hawaii; territorial contiguity between the West Bank and Gaza Strip - that is, through the 20 miles of Israeli territory between them - was never promised and would destroy Israeli contiguity.

5) "Palestinians have been made to endure hundreds of checkpoints in the West Bank, an eight-foot wall deep in our territories, and tight Israeli control over borders."

The security barrier is not "deep in Palestinian territories," but rather encompasses less than 8 percent of Judea and Samaria, and is mostly a fence, rarely a wall; the land in question is not "our [Palestinian] territories" but disputed territory to which, according to the authors of U.N. Security Council Resolution 242, Jews as well as Arabs have claims; and there are no international borders, only the 1949 armistice lines with Jordan. Under 242, borders remain to be negotiated. As for checkpoints - like the security barrier and "tight Israeli control" - Palestinian Arabs precipitated these measures themselves. No terrorism and there would be no fence or tight Israeli control and few checkpoints - like before the first intifada.

Correcting Some Oslo Myths

1) In Oslo "Israeli, Palestinian and other world leaders promised that ... Palestinian sovereignty would be solidified."

No, they didn't. The 1993 Declaration of Principles and subsequent Oslo agreements outlined a process by which final status negotiations about the West Bank and Gaza Strip would be reached. The process required an end to anti-Israel terrorism and incitement and a commitment to peaceful negotiations. The PA, Fatah, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, and other terrorist groups, sabotaged the process from the start.

2) "The reality is that, in defiance of U.N. Security Council Resolution 242, which states that it is inadmissible to occupy land by force, Palestinian territories are still under foreign military occupation."
Wrong again. Resolution 242 (1967) does note "the inadmissibility of the acquisition of territory by war." It also affirms the right of every state in the area "to live in peace with secure and recognized boundaries free from threats or acts of force." There were no "Palestinian territories." Jordan occupied the West Bank, Egypt controlled Gaza. Israel did not have "secure and recognized boundaries," so retention of some of those territories was possible under 242. Israel is not a "foreign" military occupier in the West Bank but, pending final negotiations, the lawful military administrator as a result of a successful war of self-defense.

Doc's Talk