Bashing Israel has become fashionable in many Western circles, but in the Middle East it doesn't work anymore.
For decades in the Middle East the most reliable political tool
often seemed to be the Israel card, the idea that by condemning Israel,
blaming it for the Arab world’s problems, and claiming that those who
were insufficiently militant on the issue were
traitors.
But the Israel card doesn’t work anymore, at least not in the way
it used to do so. True, the rise of revolutionary Islamism has focused
more hatred against Israel. Yet at the same time—and this analogy is
imperfect—it is less of a single-issue movement.
As revolutionary Islamists seek to destroy their rivals (nationalist,
moderates, and each other) and fundamentally transform their own
societies, they are kept pretty busy.
Jibril Rajoub, a senior Fatah official and supposed moderate, may insist that
Israel is the main enemy of the Arabs and
Muslims, but the Arabs and Muslims aren't paying much attention. The
Palestinian Authority which his group runs--and which rules only on the
West Bank--has no Middle Eastern patron at all.
The Sunni-Shia conflict is deepening, with clashes already taking
place in Bahrain, Iraq, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, and above all Syria.
Indeed, the Syrian civil war is a full-scale contest between the two
blocks. Even Muslim Brotherhood think-tanks have
said that the Shia, and especially Iran, is more dangerous threats than
is Israel.
The chance that these two blocs would cooperate against Israel is close to zero. It was different a few years ago.
Before the “Arab Spring,” Iran seemed set to become the region’s
Muslim superpower. If Tehran obtained nuclear weapons (sometimes
referred to as the “Islamic bomb”) it was expected to wield growing
influence throughout the Arab world.
Today, however, that situation has reversed itself. Sunni Arabs,
whether they are Islamists or anti-Islamists, openly hate and fear Iran.
A nuclear weapon in Tehran’s hands would not increase its strategic or
political influence. Iran faces a Sunni wall
against its ambitions and it is almost without Arab allies.
As for Hizballah, Iran’s sole reliable ally, it is not able to
attack Israel from southern Lebanon. Thousands of its soldiers are ties
up in Syria to keep an arms’ supply open, help the Bashar al-Assad
regime win, and protect Shia villagers. It also faces
growing opposition from Sunni Muslims, financed by the Saudis and
stirred up by hatred over Hizballah’s actions in Syria, within Lebanon
itself. Plus the fact that the Lebanese don’t want to be victimized by
Hizballah going to war with Israel given the damage
suffered in the late round in 2006.
This is not, of course, due only to the Sunni-Shia issue. There has
also been a sharp revival of Arab identity against the Turks and
Persians. The region’s history of such ethnic clashes has been revived.
If the Syrian civil war ends in a rebel victory,
the winners will soon turn against their Turkish patrons. Indeed, while
the trade between the two countries is still growing, the Syria issue
has driven a deep rift between Turkey and Iran, who are supporting
opposite sides.
Even Muslim Brotherhood Egypt and Muslim Brotherhood Hamas, which
rules the Gaza Strip, have fallen out, albeit perhaps temporarily. The
Egyptian government is unhappy that Hamas has not cracked down enough on
the Salafists in Gaza and the Sinai who want
to attack it.
In addition, Egypt—busy with internal transformation, domestic
conflicts, and economic problems, wants Hamas to keep things quiet on
its border with Egypt. Israeli officials describe current security
cooperation with the Egyptian government, or at least
the intelligence services and military, as being quite good. Disputes
between Muslim Brotherhood groups and even more radical Salafists are
creating problems in Egypt and Syria.
Another factor is the economic catastrophe that is striking or
going to hit much of the Arab world. The incompetence and bad policies
of the Islamists are making a mess. In Iran, of course, this is
heightened by international sanctions. The obsessively
anti-Israel strategy of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has become
unpopular as being unnecessarily provocative.
The fact is that Syria is wrecked for many years to come; that Iraq
is not in good shape due to internal battles; and that Egypt is on the
verge of disaster. Obviously, the attempt to stir up hatred against
Israel as being responsible for these problems
in order to mobilize popular support is tempting.
But what can be done about it? Israeli flags can be burned in
Cairo; tourism there may become impossible; and the embassy could be
closed. Yet will Egypt court war, with a reluctant military, the need
for international financial aid, and the possibility
that the United States could cut off the arms’ supply? Unlike the Arab
nationalists, who could depend on the USSR, the Sunni Islamists have no
big-money patron, at least outside Qatar.
Finally, something has been learned by the Arab masses and leaders
over the last half-century. The old cries that Israel could easily be
destroyed by cooperation and determination don’t seem quite as
persuasive in the face of many Arab military defeats.
There’s a lot more caution. Among the elites there’s even the idea that
Israel can be an asset in their struggle against Iran.
I don’t want to overstate the case. Moves toward peace—with
Islamists in power or looking over the regime’s shoulders and eager to
inveigh against treasonous moderation—are unlikely. Vicious propaganda
will continue unabated. Terrorism will be launched
at every opportunity.
Ironically, this change coincides with a frenzied effort to reduce
support for Israel in the West, including in Jewish communities through
boycotts, sanctions, divestment, and massive misinformation. One wonders
at times whether this campaign is a substitute
for relative disinterest in doing much in the Middle East itself.
Perhaps this is taken as justifying inaction or perhaps it is seen as
still another attempt to find a victorious strategy when so many others
have failed.
Perhaps someday, if and when revolutionary Islamists have
consolidated power in several countries, the situation will change
again. But until then, yelling “Israel” at a crowded rally--at least in
the Middle East--will not prove a panacea for the political
problems of Arab governments and politicians.
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--------------------
Barry Rubin is director of the Global Research in
International Affairs (GLORIA) Center and editor of the Middle East
Review of International Affairs (MERIA) Journal. His next book, Nazis,
Islamists and the Making of the Modern Middle East,
written with Wolfgang G. Schwanitz, will be published by Yale University
Press in January 2014. His latest book is Israel: An Introduction,
also published by Yale. Thirteen of his books can be read and downloaded for free at the website of the GLORIA Center including The Arab States and the Palestine Conflict, The Long War
for Freedom: The Arab Struggle for Democracy in the Middle East and The Truth About Syria. His blog is Rubin Reports. His original articles are published at PJMedia.
Professor Barry Rubin, Director, Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center http://www.gloria-center.org
Forthcoming Book: Nazis, Islamists, and the Making of the Modern Middle East (Yale University Press)
The Rubin Report blog http://rubinreports.blogspot.com/
He is a featured columnist at PJM http://pajamasmedia.com/barryrubin/.
Editor, Middle East Review of International Affairs (MERIA) Journal http://www.gloria-center.org
He is a featured columnist at PJM http://pajamasmedia.com/barryrubin/.
Editor, Middle East Review of International Affairs (MERIA) Journal http://www.gloria-center.org
Editor Turkish Studies,http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/title~db=all~content=t713636933%22
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