There
is a passionate, but somewhat academic debate, over the following
issue: Which is the greater threat, the Sunni Muslim Islamists (Egypt,
Tunisia, Gaza Strip, and perhaps soon to be Syria) or the Shia Muslim
Islamists (Iran, Lebanon, at the moment still Syria)?
I
would say the answer would be the Iran-led Shia bloc. But two
reservations: the margin isn’t that big and it also depends on the
specific place and situation.
To
begin with, Iran is still the greatest strategic threat in the region.
It is moving as fast as it can toward nuclear weapons and it is still
the main sponsor of terrorism. At the moment, it is still, too, the most
likely state that would initiate an
anti-Western war, though that possibility is smaller than often
believed. It has lots of money.
What
has gone largely unnoticed is that it is almost the middle of 2013 and
the Obama Administration has barely begun negotiations with Iran that
will probably drag on without success for a year or more. In addition,
after Iran’s June elections, which will presumably pick a radical who is
less obviously extremist than current President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad,
the U.S. government and mass media will probably proclaim a new era of
Iranian moderation.
Iran
is also the main backer of Islamist revolution in Bahrain (where it has
failed); Lebanon (where its Hizballah clients are the strongest force);
and Syria (where its regime ally is in serious trouble).
One
final point is that Tehran is having some success in drawing the Iraqi
(Shia) government into its orbit. Baghdad is certainly cooperating with
Iran on defending the Syrian regime, though one should not exaggerate
how much Iraq is in
Iran’s pocket. At any rate, nobody would want the Iraqi regime to be
overthrown by the al-Qaida terrorist opposition.
So a strong case can be made that Iran is the greatest threat in the region.
On
the other hand, however, a Great Wall of Sunnism has been built to
prevent the extension of Iranian influence except for Lebanon. The Sunni
bloc contains few Shia Muslims. The Muslim Brotherhood, the even more
radical Salafists, and other Sunni Muslims (Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and
the United Arab Emirates, for example) have said that the Shias are a
worse threat than Israel.
Perhaps
the fear of Iran provides some common cause with the West. But this is
also a scary proposition since the Obama Administration’s promotion of
Sunni Islamism (Egypt, Tunisia, Syria, and even Turkey) could use this
point as an excuse. Perhaps America could be said to be building a
united front against Iran but at what price? Turning over much of the
Arab world to repressive, anti-American, and antisemitic
Sunni Islamism as Christians flee?
There
is also another weakness of Sunni Islamism, however, that also makes it
seem relatively less threatening. In contrast to Iran, the Sunni
Islamists do not have a wealthy patron comparable to Iran. They can
depend on money from Qatar and to some extent from Libya but they have
fewer resources. Sometimes the Saudis will help Sunni Islamists but only
if they tone down their warlike and anti-Western actions. There is no
big banker for Sunni Islamist destabilization of the Middle East.
Equally,
they do not have a reliable source of arms, in contrast to the Shia who
have Iran and also at times Russia. True, in Syria the Sunni rebels
have U.S. backing to get weaponry and arms from Libya and elsewhere paid
for by Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Yet Syria is an exceptional case. The
Saudis are not going to finance the Muslim Brotherhood and its
ambitions. Bahrain has declared Shia Hizballah to be a terrorist group
even while the European Union refuses to do so.
So
arguably one could say that the Shia Islamists and Iran are a bigger
danger. But a second danger is a U.S. or Western policy to promote Sunni
Islamism
as a way to counter the Shia, a strategy that has intensified regional
dangers and the suffering of Arab peoples. Then, too, there’s the fact
that al-Qaida is a Sunni Islamist organization, and the al-Qaida forces
are getting stronger in Syria.
One
would have to be very foolish to want to see Sunni Islamism make
further gains, to overthrow the monarchies in Morocco, Saudi Arabia,
Jordan, Oman, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, or Bahrain, as well as
the Algerian regime. One would also have to be foolish--but here the
Obama Administration is so--to want to see Muslim Brotherhood regimes
succeed in Egypt, Tunisia, the Gaza Strip, and
Syria.
What
we are seeing, however, is that Islamism is becoming entangled at
present with the power it has gained, especially in Egypt. The country
is innately in economic difficulties and these are being intensified by
Muslim Brotherhood misrule. Rather than raise their countries to the
peak of military-economic efficiency, the Islamist regimes are wrecking
them.
But there are some very significant wild cards in the deck:
--If
Sunni Islamist regimes in Egypt and Syria face significant problems
with instability and economics, they might adopt the time-honored,
traditional tactic of Arab dictatorships by stirring up foreign quarrels
and promoting anti-Americanism. This could unleash future Arab-Israeli
wars.
--Sunni
Islamist regimes in Egypt, the Gaza Strip, and probably Syria would
give extremely radical Salafist forces a free hand in attacking
Christians, moderates, women’s rights, foreign embassies, and possibly
Israel. Human rights in these countries—if anybody in the West cares
about that—are going to suffer severe hits.
--Hamas
will probably attack Israel in future, perhaps with at least some
Egyptian backing though the Egyptian regime is now trying to restrain
Hamas in order to consolidate rule at home and get Western money.
--Al-Qaida
is gaining strength in Syria and for the first time its possible
takeover cannot be ruled out, at least in alliance with other Salafist
groups.
--The
stronger the Sunni Islamists the more uncooperative the Palestinian
Authority (PA) will be with attempts at a “peace process.” It is
possible that the PA would face a considerable challenge from Hamas on
the West Bank while forces within Fatah, the
PA’s ruling party, might form alliances with Hamas. Israel should be
able to keep the PA in power—a situation wrought with irony—but its
stability could crumble.
In
short, while one can make the case for Shia Islamism being the more
dangerous—at least as long as Iran might get nuclear weapons—one must
very carefully examine the implications of that judgment in every
specific case. Promoting Sunni Islam is no panacea but rather
substitutes longer-term for shorter-term threats.
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Barry
Rubin is director of the Global Research in International Affairs
(GLORIA) Center and editor of the Middle East Review of International
Affairs (MERIA) Journal. His next
book, Nazis, Islamists and the Making of the Modern Middle East,
written with Wolfgang G. Schwanitz, will be published by Yale University
Press in January 2014. His latest book is Israel: An Introduction, also published by Yale. Thirteen of his books can be read and downloaded for free at the website of the GLORIA Center including The Arab States and the Palestine Conflict, The Long War for Freedom: The Arab Struggle for Democracy
in the Middle East and The Truth About Syria. His blog is Rubin Reports. His original articles are published at PJMedia.
Professor Barry Rubin, Director, Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center http://www.gloria-center.org
Forthcoming Book: Nazis, Islamists, and the Making of the Modern Middle East (Yale University Press)
The Rubin Report blog http://rubinreports.blogspot.com/
He is a featured columnist at PJM http://pajamasmedia.com/barryrubin/.
Editor, Middle East Review of International Affairs (MERIA) Journal http://www.gloria-center.org
He is a featured columnist at PJM http://pajamasmedia.com/barryrubin/.
Editor, Middle East Review of International Affairs (MERIA) Journal http://www.gloria-center.org
Editor Turkish Studies,http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/title~db=all~content=t713636933%22
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