*David Gerstman has kindly sent this three-year-old article to me, which is still relevant today.
We must now face an extremely unpleasant truth: even giving the Obama
Administration every possible break regarding its Iran policy, it is now
clear that the U.S. government isn't going to take strong action on the
nuclear weapons issue.
Note that I didn't even say "effective" action, that is, measures which
would force Iran to back down. I’m neither advocating nor do I think
there was ever any possibility that the United States, even under
Obama’s predecessor, might take military action.
I'm saying that they aren't even going to make a good show of trying seriously to do anything at all.
Some say that the administration has secretly or implicitly accepted the
idea that Iran will get nuclear weapons and is now seeking some
longer-term containment policy. I doubt that has happened. They are just
not even this close to reality.
From their behavior they still seem to expect, incredibly, that some
kind of deal is possible with Tehran despite everything that has
happened. Then, too, they may hope that the opposition—unaided by
America–will overthrow the Iranian government and thus solve the problem
for them. And they are too fixated on short-term games about seeking
consensus among other powers two of which–China and Russia–are clearly
not going to agree to do anything serious. This fact was clear many
months ago, but the administration still doesn’t recognize it.
Not only is the Obama administration failing the test, but it is doing
so in a way that seems to maximize the loss of U.S. credibility in the
region and the world. A lot of this comes from the administration's
philosophy, almost unprecedented concepts of guilt, apology, defeatism,
and refusal to take leadership never seen before among past liberal
Democratic governments from Franklin Roosevelt through Bill Clinton.
Yet the British, French, and Germans are ready to get tough on Iran, yearning for leadership, and not getting it.
All of this is watered down in media coverage, focused on day-to-day
developments; swallowing many of the administration's excuses plus its
endlessly repeated rhetoric that action is on the way. When the history
of this absurdly failed effort is written the story will be a shocking
one, the absurdity of policy obvious.
It was totally predictable that the Iranian government would not make a
deal. It was totally predictable that Russia and China weren’t going to
go along with higher sanctions. It was totally predictable that a
failure by the United States to take leadership and instead depend on
consensus would lead to paralysis. And it is totally predictable that a
bungled diplomatic effort will produce an even more aggressive Iranian
policy along with crisis and violence.
First, the administration set a September 2009 deadline for instituting
higher sanctions and then, instead of following a two-track strategy of
engagement plus pressure, postponed doing anything while engaged in
talks with Iran.
Second, it refused to take advantage of the regime's international
unpopularity and growing opposition demonstrations due to the stolen
election. On the contrary, it assured the Iranian regime it would not do
so.
Third, the administration set a December 2009 deadline if engagement
failed, then refused to recognize it had failed and did nothing. It is
the failure even to try to meet this time limit by implementing some
credible action that has crossed the line, triggered the point of no
return.
Fourth, the U.S. government kept pretending that it was somehow
convincing the Chinese and Russians to participate while there was never
any chance of this happening. Indeed, this was clear from statements
repeatedly made by leaders of both countries. Now, this duo has
sabotaged the process without any cost inflicted by the United States
while making clear they will continue doing so.
Here is something tremendously ironic: The British, French, and Germans
want to act. Obama has the consensus among allies that he says is
required. But he’s letting himself be held back by China and Russia.
The three European allies now have the opposite problem they felt with
Bush. They wanted to pull back the previous American president. Now with
Obama, they can’t drag this guy forward!
Fifth, high-ranking U.S. officials continually speak of their unending
eagerness to engage Iran, begging it to fool them with more delays. But
Tehran doesn’t have to do so since the same officials speak of at least
six months more discussion before anything is done about sanctions.
Sixth, the administration now defines sanctions as overwhelmingly
focused on the Revolutionary Guards, which it cannot hurt economically,
thus signaling to the Iranian regime that it will do nothing effective
to damage the country's economy. This means that even if sanctions are
increased, they will be toothless. The White House ignored the
face-saving way out given it by Congress, where the vast majority of
Democrats supported an embargo on refined fuel supplies and other doable
measures.
All of these steps tell Iran's regime: full speed ahead on building
nuclear weapons; repress your opponents brutally, and the United States
will do nothing. It isn’t a good thing when the world’s most dangerous
dictator is laughing at you, and your friends in the region are
trembling because they have been let down.
After these six failures, the United States is now–in effect–resting.
And that is the seventh failure. There are no signs that anything is
changing in Washington. To believe that the administration has learned
anything from experience, we would have to see the following:
An angry U.S. government that feels Iran's regime made it seem a sucker.
A calculating administration that believes the American people want it
to get tough, and thus it would gain politically from being seen as
decisive. A great power strategy that it would make an example of Iran
to show what happens to repressive dictators who defy the United States
and spit on its friends and interests. And a diplomatically astute
leadership that understands how threats and pressure must be used even
by those who want to force an opponent into a compromise deal.
There is not the slightest indication that the Obama administration
holds any of these views. On the contrary, without any apparent
realization of the absurdity of the situation, high-ranking officials
keep repeating in January 2010 as in January 2009 that some day the
United States might do something to put pressure on Iran. Perhaps those
in the administration who do understand what's wrong don't have the
influence to affect the policy being set in the White House.
At a minimum, the administration should implement the tough sanctions
envisioned by Congress and supported by its European allies, an attempt
to cut off the maximum amount of fuel supplies, loans, and trade from
Iran. If this hurts average Iranians, it also sends the signal that the
current regime is unacceptable and aids the opposition. In diplomatic
history, this is how sanctions have always been viewed.
Instead, while the United States does nothing, Russia is completing
Iran’s Bushire nuclear reactor and China is finishing up a massive oil
refinery in Iran. While Obama fiddles, the regime is getting stronger,
not more isolated.
This sad debacle is going to be a case study of how failing to deal with
a problem sooner, even if that requires some diplomatic confrontations,
will lead to a much bigger and costlier conflict later involving
military confrontations.
When I read what I wrote back in September 2009–four months before the article you are reading now was written–I find that every point made has proven true.
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