CNN reported
tonight that Israel’s air force recently attacked a Syrian
chemicals weapon cache, probably on Thursday or Friday and
probably from within Lebanese airspace. The report cited Western
intelligence sources, likely based on radar evidence. The CNN
report comes days after Syrian opposition forces reported that
IAF strikes had taken place on Syrian territory. The opposition
reports also indicated that the Israeli attack
targeted Syria’s chemical weapons program.
Israeli officials have
been increasingly explicit in warning that
Jerusalem would act to prevent the Syrian regime from crossing
the double read line that Israeli officials had set at the onset
of the Syrian conflict: no transfer of advanced Syrian weapons
to terrorist allies of the embattled Bashar al-Assad and no
seizure of those weapons by Al Qaeda-linked opponents fighting
to overthrow the regime.
President Barack Obama
has endorsed the Israeli
position:
“That’s an issue that doesn’t just concern Syria. It concerns our close allies in the region, including Israel. It concerns us,” Obama said, also acknowledging the possibility that militant groups might acquire some of those weapons. “We cannot have a situation where chemical or biological weapons are falling into the hands of the wrong people.”The president noted that he has not ordered any armed U.S. intervention yet, but said: “We have communicated in no uncertain terms with every player in the region, that that’s a red line for us, and that there would be enormous consequences if we start seeing movement on the chemical weapons front, or the use of chemical weapons. That would change my calculations significantly.”
The odds of transfer or
seizure have dramatically increased in recent weeks.
Israeli officials
publicly worried earlier this week that Assad’s forces had
already transferred small amounts of chemical weapons to the
Iran-backed terror group Hezbollah. For its part is thought to
have poured literally thousands of fighters into Syria, and has
become deeply embedded in the Syrian army’s
battles against opposition forces. The regime has kept much of
the Syrian army out of the fighting due to fears of
defection. There are no such worries with Hezbollah’s fighters,
and Hezbollah forces had already been deployed to guard Syrian WMD
arsenals months ago. Iran and Hezbollah have also reportedly
built an enormous force to seize control of
Syria if necessary.
The risk of chemical
weapons seizure has also spiked. Areas evacuated by Syrian
forces, especially those around the border area with Israel,
have been filled in by fighters from the Al Nusra Front. The
beginning of April saw the largest
redeployment of
Syrian army forces in 40 years, and rebels are now within
striking distance of Syria’s largest WMD caches. The Al Nusra
Front is, according to the the State Department, merely an alias for Al Qaeda, and Al Nusra fighters
havepledged allegiance to the global terrorist
group. Islamist rebels in Syria have pledged to attack Israel and top
Israeli military officials believe those attacks would include
the use of chemical weapons.
Hanging over everything
is an overarching uncertainty regarding the status of
Syria’s chemical weapons. This week The Daily Beast revealed
that the U.S. simply does not know the current status of all of
Syria’s chemical weapons or who is in control of them:
As the White House mulls whether Syria has crossed President Obama’s red line and used chemical weapons, the U.S. military and intelligence community are quietly acknowledging that the United States does not know where many of those weapons are located… At the heart of the concern is that the Syrian military has transferred more and more of its stock of sarin and mustard gas from storage sites to trucks where they are being moved around the country. While U.S. intelligence agencies first saw reports that Syria was moving the weapons last year, the process has accelerated since December, according to these officials. Also worrisome, said two of the officials, is intelligence from late last year that says the Syrian Scientific Research Center—an entity responsible for Syria’s chemical-weapons stockpile—has begun to train irregular militias loyal to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in how to use the chemical munitions.
1 comment:
Israel is just trying to ensure that Iran does not gain too strong a foothold in Syria, which is unfortunately already beginning to look like a reality. You can read more about the Iranian entrance into the Syrian Civil war here: http://jcpa.org/article/irans-plans-to-take-over-syria/
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